Gerdau On A Better Path, But Higher Utilization Is Essential

With Brazil looking healthier and the U.S. government taking a stronger position with respect to protecting domestic steel production from imports, Gerdau’s (GGB) outlook has improved in many respects. Even so, the share price performance since my last update in late 2016 hasn’t been all that special – the 30% move isn’t bad, but you’d have done only slightly worse with the S&P 500 (without the attendant risk and volatility), and other steel companies like Steel Dynamics (STLD), Nucor (NUE), and Ternium (TX) would have delivered even better returns.

I expect that Brazil will continue to recover, and I’m cautiously optimistic that the U.S. market will support better margins for Gerdau’s long steel products. I continue to believe that Gerdau can generate long-term FCF growth in the mid-single digits, with double-digit growth in both FCF and EBITDA from 2018 out through 2021. The valuation picture is mixed; the shares are no longer a bargain on a DCF basis (not surprising for a cyclical company in a recovery cycle), but EV/EBITDA suggests some potential upside is still in play.

Follow the link for more:
Gerdau On A Better Path, But Higher Utilization Is Essential

Argo Growing Its Business, But Profitability Remains A Concern

Argo Group (AGII) has been an interesting, albeit frustrating, stock to follow for a number of years. There are a lot of positives, including strong underwriting quality, dividend growth, and recently reinvigorated premium growth, but there are also ongoing concerns related to issues like persistently sluggish tangible book value growth and weak returns on earnings. To that end, the shares are only up about 10% from my last write-up in early 2016, and investors would have done better with other insurers like Arch Capital (ACGL), Chubb (CB), Travelers (TRV), or W.R. Berkley (WRB).

I can't say that I really like the valuation on Argo today. I do think the company's efforts to grow its premiums will eventually help its expense leverage (a long-sought goal), and I likewise think that expanding its Lloyds business through M&A should help long-term leverage there. Offsetting that are worries about industry loss trends and the company's persistent issues with generating attractive operating leverage. While I do believe that Argo can generate double-digit EPS growth over the long term and eventually get its return on tangible equity above 10% on a consistent basis, I think the valuation amply reflects that.

Continue here:
Argo Growing Its Business, But Profitability Remains A Concern

MTN Group: Light At The End Of The Tunnel, Or Another Oncoming Train?

For those who don't own MTN Group (OTCPK:MTNOY) shares, the experience has been like something out of a Charlie Brown cartoon. You think things are going to be different, that the company is going to push through its execution issues, only to end up flat on your back, looking at the sky, and wondering how you got fooled again and let the ball get yanked out in front of you. Although these shares actually have beaten the S&P 500 over the past year, currency moves had a lot to do with that and the shares are down pretty meaningfully over the last five years (not unusual for an emerging market stock, but still…).

So, now what? MTN Group has new leadership and a new plan, a plan that involves improving network quality, restoring some luster to the brand, and running the business on the basis of sound principles like risk-adjusted returns and ROIC. That sounds like exactly what the company should be doing, and there is significant potential to do better here, but that has to be set next to the risks. Those risks include over-spending on capex (and generating little-to-nothing from it), cutting the dividend, and regulatory and economic risk across its operating footprint.

In a bullish scenario, I could argue for a price in the $12-$13 range, but I can just as easily argue for a bearish scenario in the $8 to $9 range. Given the risk-reward trade-off, today's price seems fair - I believe investors can expect better-than-S&P 500 returns, but the real opportunity will come if and when management restores investor confidence and drives a rerating process.

Read more here:
MTN Group: Light At The End Of The Tunnel, Or Another Oncoming Train?

Despite Ongoing Operational Improvements, Cosan Still Undervalued

Following and modeling Cosan Ltd. (CZZ) is a little like training for endurance sports - you spend a lot of time while you're doing it wondering why you're bothering to do it. After all, there are two share classes, a somewhat complicated holding company structure, and many commodity moving parts to account for in an analysis. With the shares up more than 30% over the last year and close to 250% from the 2015 lows, though, I think you can certainly argue that there has been some gain for shareholders willing to take on that pain. Better still, I continue to see upside in these shares from both operational improvement and a shrinking discount to the underlying value.

Read the full article here:
Despite Ongoing Operational Improvements, Cosan Still Undervalued

W.R. Berkley Has A Lot To Live Up To

I understand that good companies should trade at a premium, but it is getting harder for me to reconcile W.R. Berkley’s (WRB) valuation with the realities in the insurance market today and the likely trajectory over the next few years. W.R. Berkley is a very well-run specialty insurance company, but rate growth is hard to find, claims severity is worsening in some lines, and reserves are looking a little thin across the industry.

The insurance industry is cyclical and the difficult market conditions of today will eventually improve, but the shares seem to be pricing in high single-digit long-term earnings growth, and I don’t think that leaves much upside in the share price.

Follow this link for the full article:
W.R. Berkley Has A Lot To Live Up To

Canadian Western Bank Has Restored Itself As A Growth Bank

From the summer of 2014 through the summer of 2017, Canadian Western Bank (OTCPK:CBWBF) (CWB.TO) endured an ugly downturn brought about by the sharp decline in oil prices and the resulting impact (real and perceived) on the economy of Western Canada. Although this downturn did knock Canadian Western back a bit, it didn’t appear to do any lasting damage. More importantly, management stuck to its long-term plans throughout the downturn, plans that included expanding its equipment leasing operations, its mortgage operations, and its business mix outside of Alberta.

With the shares having doubled of the February 2016 low, risen more than 50% from my last write-up, and risen more than 20% over the past year, this isn’t an undiscovered turnaround story. Instead, it’s back to being a growth story, with management targeting strong lending growth in the coming years and progress towards mid-teens ROEs offering double-digit earnings growth potential. As the share price largely reflects those growth prospects, I’d call this more of a hold (or a watch list candidate), but it’s a name I’d keep an eye on for occasional pullbacks.

I would also recommend that investors considering an investment in Canadian Western strongly consider the Toronto-listed shares (CWB.TO). While the ADRs do trade, the liquidity is unattractively low (whereas the Toronto-listed shares trade over 300K per day).

Read the full article here:
Canadian Western Bank Has Restored Itself As A Growth Bank

COPEL's Potential Value Mitigated By Ongoing Execution Concerns

A management team's ability to execute is often the difference between "value" and "value trap", and Brazilian electrical utility COPEL (NYSE:ELP) has been far more of the latter over the past three years, leading the shares to significantly underperform peers like Eletrobras (EBR), CTEEP, and Equatorial Energia (OTCPK:EQUEY), as well as the broader Brazilian market. The weak state of the Brazilian economy is not the fault of COPEL's management, but the company's ongoing operational inefficiencies in its distribution operations ("Disco") certainly fit under their umbrella of responsibilities and the company's position/exposure to spot pricing likewise lands on their doorstep.

Even with a higher discount rate to account for the elevated debt situation and management's missteps, COPEL shares look undervalued on the basis of long-term revenue growth in the mid-single digits and improving FCF margins. I'd also note that the shares trade at a pretty sizable discount to tangible book value. All of that said, I can only give a tepid endorsement to these shares given the skill (or lack thereof) management has shown during this challenging time. The Brazilian electricity market is not an easy place to compete, and the value I see in the shares is tempered by real questions as to whether management will be able to realize that value for shareholders.

Continue here:
COPEL's Potential Value Mitigated By Ongoing Execution Concerns

The Ciena Roller Coaster Is Back In The Buy Zone

I’ve warned before that Ciena (CIEN) really isn’t a great buy-and-hold stock (unless you have a lot of patience…), and the past few months have backed that up. While the shares did well after my last write-up and a strong second quarter, the shares started to weaken in July with growing concerns about the near-term growth outlook pushing the stock back below $20 for a time.

The outlook for optical in 2018 is not particularly strong, with expectations for basically no growth in long-haul and concerns in metro that Verizon (VZ) spending has already peaked. While Ciena still has some company-specific drivers like its datacenter interconnect business, its new WaveLogic Ai chipset, and its growing software business, this company has long struggled to regain credibility from the Street and confidence in management’s long-term goals for revenue and margins.

With the shares back down in the low $20’s, I’m more bullish on Ciena. I believe you have to be careful with cyclical stories (and the 100G rollout is a cyclical driver), but I believe Ciena has taken a lot of smart steps to improve and expand its business, and I believe long-term revenue growth in the 4% to 5% range is attainable, supporting a double-digit FCF growth rate and a mid-$20’s fair value if management can generate modest margin improvement from here.

Read more here:
The Ciena Roller Coaster Is Back In The Buy Zone

Silicon Labs Continues To Build On Its Strengths

Committing to the Internet of Things (or IoT) has been a transformative decision for Silicon Labs (SLAB), as this smallish semiconductor company continues to leverage its broad wireless capabilities to benefit from the growth in IoT deployments. These shares are up more than 40% over the past year, and revenue looks on track to continue high single-digit to low double-digit growth for some time, pushed along by the strength in IoT, but also aided by exposure to markets like optical networking and electric vehicles. The company's recent announcement of the acquisition of Sigma Designs (SIGM) furthers the story, adding another wireless standard and a decent chunk of fast-growing revenue with expense synergies.

Silicon Labs has performed well relative to expectations, and the shares are being richly rewarded for the company's above-average revenue growth and improving margins. While I do expect high single-digit revenue growth over the long term (including Sigma) and double-digit free cash flow growth, valuation is definitely in the "bull cycle" part of the range, and I cannot find enough value to get comfortable with the idea of buying for my own account.

Read more here:
Silicon Labs Continues To Build On Its Strengths

F5 Needs Some "Creative Destruction"

One of the hallmarks of the best-run companies is that they’re not the last to leave a party; well-run companies recognize that self-obsolescence and “creative destruction” are often essential parts of maintaining a healthy business over the long term. To that end, I would note that companies like Cisco (CSCO), Palo Alto (PANW), and VMware (VMW) often are building toward the next big thing while the current big thing is still generating meaningful cash flow.

That has not been the case, in my opinion, with F5 (FFIV). Although there’s nothing wrong with F5 getting everything they can out of the fading application delivery controller (or ADC) opportunity, I believe the company has not gone far enough, fast enough, to position the company for ongoing growth in the new cloud and hybrid cloud enterprise world.

These shares are up a little from when I last wrote about them, with a solid double-digit rally off the October lows, but I cannot muster much enthusiasm for the shares again. While I expect F5 to generate ample cash flow for some time, I really would like to see management use the company’s balance sheet to acquire more growth and relevance in the emerging networking world.

Click here for more:
F5 Needs Some "Creative Destruction"

Mellanox Knocked Around, But Definitely Not Knocked Out

It’s not uncommon for elevated volatility and controversy to surround growth stocks, but Mellanox (MLNX) seems to get more than its share. It certainly doesn’t help that the company competes with heavy-hitters like Intel (INTC) and Broadcom (AVGO), nor has it helped that the company’s InfiniBand revenue (once the prime attraction of the story) has fallen off significantly. Add in elevated spending concerns, and it has been a bumpy ride for shareholders.

That bumpy ride has also been relatively productive for shareholders recently. Between a well-known activist shareholder taking a stake and management ratcheting down operating expenses, the shares have shot up this year and finally started outperforming the sector again.

I liked Mellanox back in May of this year, but as things sit today, I think most of the remaining value lies in the extent to which Mellanox attracts solid M&A attention and/or provides credible visibility to renewed InfiniBand growth. The stock price already assumes mid-teens growth in adjusted free cash flow, but a buyout bid would likely start in the high-$60's, if not the $70's.

Continue reading here:
Mellanox Knocked Around, But Definitely Not Knocked Out

Can Fifth Third Grasp All That It's Reaching For?

Plans and goals can be great things, but reaching them can be tricky and a set-up for disappointment. In the case of Fifth Third (NASDAQ:FITB), management has had no problem laying out bold targets tied to its Project North Star self-improvement plan, but recent performance creates some valid questions about the magnitude of growth this Midwestern bank can really achieve and where that growth will come from.

The Street is already expecting a lot of improvement from Fifth Third, and I struggle to see how these shares are a bargain. Even with a lower tax rate, today’s share price more than rewards Fifth Third for the robust Project North Star targets, as well as a healthy overall banking environment.

Read more here:
Can Fifth Third Grasp All That It's Reaching For?

BBVA Posting Better Results And Making Better Decisions

Spanish banks have done alright over the past year, with BBVA (BBVA), Santander (SAN), and Caixa (OTCPK:CAIXY) all up between 20% and 30%, in line with other well-liked European banks like ING (ING), and well ahead of some of their other large European peers. Even with the turbulence in Catalonia, economic conditions have been improving in Spain, and with that so has credit quality. What’s more, both BBVA and Santander have gotten a little more proactive about selling underperforming assets.

While BBVA has done fine over the past year, there could still be a little upside left in the shares. Even though I don’t think BBVA will get to the psychologically important 10% ROE level for a few years, I do expect double-digit earnings growth over the next five years and high single-digit growth over the long term, supporting a fair value around $9/ADR.

Read more here:
BBVA Posting Better Results And Making Better Decisions

AerCap Holdings Still At A Double-Digit Discount To Fair Value

The last year or so has seen aircraft leasing company AerCap (NYSE:AER) finally get some of its due. While the Street seemingly ignored the value that management has created by selling older planes above book value, buying back stock below book value, and maintaining a high-quality, virtually fully-leased fleet, the last year has at least seen the shares outperform the S&P 500.

I liked AerCap back in the fall of 2016 and I still like it now. I do expect lower net spreads, net income, and share buybacks over the next two years, but I expect AerCap to continue growing earnings at a long-term rate around 4% and to maintain a double-digit ROE. With aircraft productivity likely plateauing and ongoing growth in passenger traffic, AerCap should have ample opportunities to grow its fleet while maintaining attractive utilization and spreads.

Continue reading here:
AerCap Holdings Still At A Double-Digit Discount To Fair Value

Innospec Offers More Upside On Growth And Margins

The last year or so has been a choppy one for Innospec (IOSP), as volumes and price/mix have been choppy across the business and the company absorbs the lower-margin business it acquired from Huntsman (HUN) at the end of December 2016. As far as peer comparisons go, Innospec is a tricky stock to benchmark given its mix of businesses, but I’d call its performance since October of 2016 “middle of the pack,” with companies like NewMarket (NEU) and Solvay (OTCPK:SOLVY) doing worse and companies like Ecolab (ECL), BASF (OTCQX:BASFY) and Lonza (OTCPK:LZAGY) doing better.

Looking ahead, I believe it will be quite a while before the electric vehicle revolution materially impacts the fuel specialties business, and I think the company has a long growth runway for its performance chemicals business. Its oilfield chemicals business should continue to benefit from improving U.S. onshore activity, while the octane additives business will continue to exist in a regulatory twilight zone.

If Innospec can generate mid-single-digit revenue growth and drive FCF margins back toward 10% on sustained improvements in the performance and oilfield chemical businesses, a fair value in the low-to-mid $70s seems reasonable and can support a long position today.

Read more here:
Innospec Offers More Upside On Growth And Margins

Hartford Financial Services Repositioned For Better Returns

The sell-side had long been waiting for Hartford (HIG) to “do something” on the M&A front, with widespread expectations that the company would eventually sell its Talcott run-off annuity business as well as rumors that Hartford could be a buyer or a seller in other areas of insurance. The last couple of months have seen most of these expectations come true, as the company sold its Talcott business and acquired Aetna’s (AET) group insurance business.

These deals leave Hartford better-positioned to reach and exceed that elusive 10% ROE threshold and shrink the valuation gap with peers like Travelers (TRV) and Chubb (CB). To that end, the shares are up about 25% since my last write-up, more or less running in line with Travelers and Chubb over that time.

At this point, I would consider Hartford more of a strong hold than a buy. The company has improved itself over the past two years and is active in attractive segments of the market, but there are increasing competitive risks and opportunities to improve returns that management may or may not be able to execute.

Follow the link for the full article:
Hartford Financial Services Repositioned For Better Returns

AGT Looks Undervalued, But This Pulse Business Has Taken A Pounding

As I have written in the past, one of the hardest parts of “buy the pullback” advice is that it sometimes leads you to grab at falling knives. Such has been the case with AGT Food and Ingredients (OTCPK:AGXXF) (AGT.TO), where the shares have fallen another 20% since my mid-May update as management (and I) seriously underestimated the depth and breadth of the business downturn spurred by a robust 2017 pulse crop in India.

Feeble volumes have hammered margins in the traditional pulse processing and handling/distribution operations, while the company’s food and ingredients businesses are not yet large enough to do much more than slightly cushion that blow. This company has been through this before, with the last serious downturn in 2012, and there are some reasons to think that business will bottom out in the second half of 2017. Even if that’s the case, though, it seems unlikely that 2018 is going to be a “business as usual” year and investors have to consider the long run of negative free cash flow here, as well as the debt situation and management’s sometimes-questionable strategic priorities and decisions.

I may be a glutton for punishment here, but I’m keeping this on my watchlist. A long-term revenue growth rate of 5%, underpinned by ongoing global growth in pulse consumption and growth in pulse-derived ingredients, and a mid-single-digit FCF margin can support a fair value about 15% higher than today’s price. I’m not buying today, though, as I would like to see fourth quarter results before making a commitment.

Continue here:
AGT Looks Undervalued, But This Pulse Business Has Taken A Pounding

Microsoft Looks Like An Elephant That Can Still Dance

Very large companies tend to struggle to innovate and grow, and large tech companies in particular historically have a very hard time remaking themselves over time. With that, yesterday’s leaders in tech are seldom today’s leaders and today’s leaders seldom become tomorrow’s leaders.

And then there’s Microsoft (MSFT). This company certainly has several missteps in its scrapbook, including multiple failures in mobile devices (phones especially), but with Azure, Office 365, and Dynamics 365, Microsoft looks to be in a good place with respect to cloud computing, and businesses like LinkedIn and Xbox offer additional avenues to growth.

It is admittedly hard to come up with a novel scoop or thesis on a huge, well-covered stock like Microsoft, but I have nevertheless large companies like this trade at attractive multiples and generate above-average returns. If my expectation of mid-single-digit growth is valid, a fair value of $90 or more seems appropriate and these shares are worth considering even late in this bull market.

Read the full article here:
Microsoft Looks Like An Elephant That Can Still Dance

Orbotech's Multi-Prong Growth Strategy Looking Better And Better

I liked Orbotech (ORBK) back in the summer of 2016, but my bullishness then underestimated the emergent momentum in the company’s business and the market’s enthusiasm for tool/machinery plays leveraged to trends like OLEDs. While Orbotech’s revenue growth can be erratic from quarter to quarter, the third quarter saw all the pieces coming together and management’s November analyst day laid out a bullish outlook for the next three years.

Valuation is less clear-cut to me now, with the shares up about 60% over the past twelve months and close to 250% over the past three years. Demand tied to advanced smartphones, AR/VR, OLED, and other applications should be able to drive double-digit revenue growth for the next few years and high single-digit growth for the long term, but it’s hard to have confidence that the good times will just keep rolling in what has long been a cyclical industry. Although, I think you can make a cogent argument that the company’s growth and margin prospects over the next three years can support a higher price; there’s not much of a safety net from discounted cash flow and I consider this a higher-risk prospect from valuation and earnings predictability standpoints.

Read more here:
Orbotech's Multi-Prong Growth Strategy Looking Better And Better

A Little Near-Term Softness Hasn't Changed The FEMSA Story

Although FEMSA (NYSE:FMX) haven’t done all that well since my last write-up, I think the modest pullback could be another opportunity for long-term investors to acquire shares in one of the best-run Mexican companies, not to mention one with consider room left to grow. FEMSA shares have been hurt by a combination of currency moves, natural disaster-related traffic disruptions, and some concerns about capital allocation, but I believe these are all short-term issues that don’t impinge upon the underlying value.

I continue to believe that FEMSA will leverage long-term high single-digit revenue growth into double-digit FCF growth, supporting a fair value in the $105 to $115 range. FEMSA has several NPV-positive potential capital projects to choose from, including accelerating the growth of OXXO, acquiring more drug stores, or expanding further outside Mexico, and I believe pullbacks below $100 are good buying opportunities.

Click here for more:
A Little Near-Term Softness Hasn't Changed The FEMSA Story

Roche Delivers Some Clinical Wins, But Skepticism Remains Largely Intact

Even though Swiss drug giant Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) has managed to deliver a series of largely better-than-expected clinical trial results, you wouldn’t really know it from the share price. Despite a lot of skepticism going into the IMPower 150 read-out for Tecentriq in first-line lung cancer, Roche’s successful result seems to not to have done much to resolve questions and concerns about how it will stack up with rivals like Merck’s (MRK) Keytruda. So too with the very positive results from the HAVEN 3 study of Hemlibra.

As IMPower 150 was only the first, and arguably the riskiest, of five front-line Tecentriq trials in lung cancer, I think Roche is in a good position going into further read-outs in 2018. Likewise, I believe Roche has a long-term winner with Hemlibra even as gene therapy approaches look to gain meaningful share in the hemophilia space. At a minimum, then, I would argue that Roche has established three strong new drug platforms (Tecentriq, Hemlibra, Ocrevus) with blockbuster potential on top of a very robust R&D pipeline.

I believe Roche is undervalued up into the mid-$30s. Competition from biosimilars is going to do its damage to near-term reported financial results, but the market has known about this for some time. With Roche having, at least in my opinion, reestablished credibility that it can develop meaningful new therapeutics, I believe the shares are undervalued today on the basis of both its existing business and the potential pipeline contributions over the next decade.

Follow this link for more:
Roche Delivers Some Clinical Wins, But Skepticism Remains Largely Intact

Orchids Could Bloom Again After Withering Competitive Pressure

Orchids Paper Products (TIS) has been an awful call for me over the past 18 months, as this manufacturer of primary private-label tissue products was hit hard by pricing moves from the competition and its own elevated costs and challenges tied to getting a new plant up and running. At the worst, the company saw revenue drop more than 20% year over year, leading to its first quarterly operating losses in a decade, serious liquidity pressures, and the suspension of the dividend. With all that, the shares are less than half the price they were the last time I wrote about this company.

On the positive side, the company's new Barnwell facility is up and running, the company has been successful in targeting more premium business, and the book of business over the next year would suggest record revenue and EBITDA. On the negative side, price and cost pressures remain a risk and the company must do something about its liquidity situation, as there is little room for error here.

I believe a lot of things went wrong for the company all at the same time, but I don't believe the story is broken. If the new business comes through as expected, Orchids should be back on a path toward high-single-digit/low-double-digit revenue growth and a return to operating and free cash flow margins in the mid-teens. Those, in turn, support a fair value in the mid-to-high teens, making Orchids a high-risk story that does at least offer some upside.

Click here for more:
Orchids Could Bloom Again After Withering Competitive Pressure

Trouble With ING Is That Everyone Knows It Is Good

I’ve liked Dutch multinational bank ING Groep (NYSE:ING) for quite some time now and seen investors run hot and cold on the bank due to issues like its unbalanced exposure to dollar-denominated lending, its exposure to energy lending (which wasn’t that large), its capital requirements, and economic concerns about the markets in which it operates. More recently, though, ING seems to be getting more of its due on the basis of its solidly profitable retail banking franchises, its expense leverage, and its best-in-class digital offerings.

ING shares have performed toward the upper end of its peer group range over the last few years, lagging ABN Amro (OTCPK:ABNRY) a bit, but otherwise performing well next to KBC Group (OTCPK:KBCSY), BNP Paribas (OTCPK:BNPZY), Erste Bank (OTCPK:EBKDY), Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB), Banco Santander (NYSE:SAN), and Nordea Bank (OTCPK:NRBAY). With that, I can’t really say these shares are undervalued anymore. There are certainly worse things than holding the shares of a fairly valued bank that is executing well and that pays a good dividend, but this isn’t really a name for bargain hunters looking to pay $0.80 and get a dollar back.

Continue here:
Trouble With ING Is That Everyone Knows It Is Good

Compass Continues To Offer Some Value

It has been a while since I’ve written on Compass Diversified Holdings (NYSE:CODI), a trust that specializes in acquiring stakes in small-to-mid-sized companies, letting those management teams do their thing, and then harvesting the cash flow for distribution to shareholders and/or reinvestment in expanding the business. In the interim, CODI has basically stuck to its core model – disposing of a few assets, raising some capital, and redeploying capital into new acquisitions that should provide growing distributable cash flow into the future.

CODI shares are up about 15% since I last wrote about the business, but during that time, shareholders also collected sizable distributions (which are taxed differently than regular dividends). Although I do still have some concerns about the modest long-term growth prospects of the portfolio and the frequent quarter-to-quarter turbulence in portfolio company results, I still see enough value to make this a worthwhile name to consider for investors who want returns that are more skewed toward income. Should opportunities like 5.11 Tactical live up to their potential, though, there may be a little more growth potential than commonly appreciated.

Read the full article here:
Compass Continues To Offer Some Value

It's Early, But PRA's Fundamentals Looking Better

It's too soon to sound the "all clear" and much too soon to just assume that PRA Group (NASDAQ:PRAA) will get back to historical levels of productivity and financial success, but there is a stronger base for a positive view now than there has been in some time. PRA still has to get its staffing situation sorted out (and improve productivity), and there are still big challenges in Europe, but the supply situation is looking better, and yields could potentially improve from here.

The "but" is that the shares are up about a third from their lows in the fall. However much of that was short-covering, the reality is that the current valuation reflects what I think is a reasonable recovery scenario. There are still avenues toward higher estimates (improved collections is the key one), but I'd say a mid-$30s price is pretty fair for the time being.

For the full article, click here:
It's Early, But PRA's Fundamentals Looking Better

A Drawn-Out Reset Of Expectations Should Lead To Better Days For Lenovo Shares

Lenovo's (OTCPK:LNVGY) bold and controversial decisions to try to work its PC magic in the mobile handset and server markets has thus far proved the doubters right. Margins have eroded since the acquisition of IBM's (IBM) x86 server business and Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Motorola business, and the share price has fallen by two-thirds from its mid-2015 high as investors have grown weary of the delays in transforming the acquired businesses into profitable contributors and grown more concerned about the long-term health of the PC business.

There are still valid reasons to worry that Lenovo shares could be a value trap, but expectations have been beaten down to a low bar. Lenovo's strategy to target higher-performance, higher-value markets in mobile and servers is a break with the company's past, but a logical one. What's more, management has not had to surrender much market share in PCs in its effort to support margins.

If Lenovo can grow revenue at a long-term rate between 2% and 3% and pull its adjusted free cash flow margins back up into the 2%-3% range, a fair value in the range of $15 to $17 still makes sense, even with a double-digit discount rate. The key question, though, remains whether or not the company can turn its mobile and server businesses into positive contributors (and/or jettison them) and restore investor confidence in Lenovo's business model and strategy.

Click here for more:
A Drawn-Out Reset Of Expectations Should Lead To Better Days For Lenovo Shares

Geared To Growth, Societe Generale's New Plan Doesn't Offer Much That's New

Between disappointing third quarter earnings and a new multiyear strategic plan that I believe many investors found underwhelming, Societe Generale (OTCPK:SCGLY) (GLE.FR) has seen its shares pressured once again. Although there have been some signs of life in this French bank’s international operations, the domestic operations have been lackluster, as have the capital markets businesses. Still, this is a bank that is structurally geared toward growth, and if economic growth does in fact pick up across Europe, Societe Generale may yet hit its long-awaited 10%-plus ROE target and unlock meaningful value.

Read more here:
Geared To Growth, Societe Generale's New Plan Doesn't Offer Much That's New

GenMark's Credibility Is Dented, But The Sell-Off Is Excessive

If anything has been consistent about GenMark (NASDAQ:GNMK) over the past couple of its years, it has been this small diagnostic company’s difficulties in meeting its own development timelines. While the company did see the approval of its key ePlex multiplex molecular diagnostics system this June (after a roughly two-year delay), the company recently missed earnings expectations in a big way, lowered guidance for both revenue and system placements, and announced further delays for its blood culture cartridge.

GenMark is the kind of stock that will make investors prematurely grey as they wrestle with the meaningful potential of the system (and the molecular diagnostics market more generally), management’s execution issues, and the competitive landscape. I do believe the major downward move in the stock since August has created another opportunity for aggressive investors, but that opportunity has to be balanced against the very real risk that this is a company that will never get its ducks in a row and/or will not be bailed out by a buyout at an attractive multiple.

Continue here:
GenMark's Credibility Is Dented, But The Sell-Off Is Excessive

Familiar Concerns Dogging Middleby

Even though value-oriented investors tend to approach the investment process with more patience than growth or momentum investors, timing still matters. Had I been writing this article on Middleby (MIDD) just three weeks ago, I’d probably have concluded that the shares offered a rare chance to pick up a proven (if controversial) grower at a reasonable valuation. With the third quarter results in the books, though, the shares have shot up more than 15%.

Although Middleby isn’t back at peak multiples, I’m more cautious on the shares with that recent run. There are still growth issues here, and I’m not fully convinced that the Commercial Foodservice and Residential businesses are in the clear. There are still ample growth opportunities for Middleby, but Welbilt (WBT) seems to be performing better than it has in recent years and it’s tough to make the cash flow numbers work unless you’re willing to accept what I believe is a relatively low required rate of return given the risks in the business model.

Read the full article here:
Familiar Concerns Dogging Middleby

ABB Seeing Key Markets Starting To Turn

ABB (ABB) hasn’t been able to keep pace with Rockwell (ROK) during this industrial upswing, but the shares of this power and automation company haven’t fared too badly next to Siemens (OTCPK:SIEGY), Schneider (OTCPK:SBGSY) or Emerson (EMR) over the past year, as management has used M&A to patch some holes and as key markets start to turn around. With major end-markets like utilities, oil/gas, and metals/mining only just starting to improve, there could be meaningful late-cycle potential for ABB. Longer-term, opportunities in automation and EV-related spending likewise look promising.

ABB shares still look a little undervalued, which I attribute in part to the fact that the company’s sales haven’t rebounded to the same extent as other industrials (more late-cycle exposure) and also to ongoing worries/doubts about management’s ability to drive margin improvements and better capital efficiency. Although Siemens and Schneider have their merits, and I’d definitely consider Rockwell on a rare meaningful pullback, I think ABB shares still offer enough value to be worth a closer look.

Read the full article here:
ABB Seeing Key Markets Starting To Turn

Can Accuray Build Some Momentum?

Small-cap radiation oncology specialist Accuray (ARAY) has long been an exercise in patience (and/or frustration, depending on whether you’re a “glass half-full” investor), but the strength in the shares since October’s earning release (up more than 30%) has been nice to see. The biggest question, though, remains unchanged – can Accuray string together a meaningful run of good quarters, exceed guidance, and establish a reasonable basis for believing that the company can grow to be both a viable competitor to Varian (VAR) and Elekta (OTCPK:EKTAY) and a profitable company?

I remain in the camp of “disappointed optimist”; I continue to hold my small position in these shares in large part because I believe the clinical benefits of Accuray’s platform are meaningful and underappreciated. The question of whether Accuray’s management can translate those benefits into tangible profits and cash flow for shareholders remains firmly open. Valuation likewise remains very tricky – I don’t believe the shares are all that cheap if the company can’t generate more than 4% long-term annualized revenue growth, but the story changes if and when mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth becomes plausible.

Read more here:
Can Accuray Build Some Momentum?

RenaissanceRe's High-Quality Model Serving It (And Investors) Well

Hard times tell you a lot about companies, and the combination of a very soft pricing market and recent catastrophe losses have highlighted a lot of what is good about RenaissanceRe (NYSE:RNR). While the shares have certainly lagged the S&P 500 over the past year, and lagged rival/peer Arch Capital (NASDAQ:ACGL), RenRe hasn't done poorly relative to other insurers like Everest Re (NYSE:RE), Aspen (NYSE:AHL), or Validus (NYSE:VR). Throughout this tough period, RenRe's underwriting standards, strong balance sheet, and business flexibility have served the company well, despite some erosion in underwriting profitability.

RenRe is trading at a premium relative to long-term valuation norms. Some of that can be attributed to what I believe is a legitimate and well-earned quality premium, but I do have some worries that investors have been too eager to factor in the benefits of harder insurance markets. While I do still see some upside for shareholders from here, I'd be cautious about establishing a big new position at these levels.

Follow this link for more:
RenaissanceRe's High-Quality Model Serving It (And Investors) Well

FirstCash Looking Forward To Value-Creating Opportunities

FirstCash (FCFS) shares have done well since my last update in August, with the shares rising about 14% as the company continues to execute very well with its Mexican pawn stores. Looking not all that far ahead, the company should start reaping the benefits of integrating its Cash America stores and converting them to FirstCash’s more sophisticated and efficient IT system as well as expansion into a new Latin American market (Colombia).

Valuation is more of a challenge for me now. I’m very willing to acknowledge that there’s no end-all/be-all approach to valuation, and the market is often happy to overpay for growth, but the risk/reward ratio now is more in keeping with a good hold than a “must buy.”

Continue here for the full article:
FirstCash Looking Forward To Value-Creating Opportunities

Buoyed By The Industrial Recovery, Automation The Next Driver For Lincoln Electric

Managing expectations is an underappreciated part of the investor relations process, but it is all the more challenging when the company in question has earned more than just the benefit of the doubt through years of above-average execution. Lincoln Electric (LECO) has long been an excellent company, but the reactions to the last few earnings releases (significant sell-offs) underline the high expectations that accompany this leader in the welding industry.

I like the long-term prospects for Lincoln Electric. The acquisition of Air Liquide makes the company even more competitive with Colfax (CFX) outside the U.S., and the company's investments in automation and specialized applications like hard-facing should pay off with above-market growth for many years. The "but" is the level of expectations already built into the stock - while I believe Lincoln Electric can deliver long-term FCF growth in the high single digits, I'd need a share price in the low $80s (or below) to get to an attractive total expected return.

Read more here:
Buoyed By The Industrial Recovery, Automation The Next Driver For Lincoln Electric

Copa Holdings Flying High Again On Market Recoveries And Internal Improvements

Economic troubles in key commodity-driven markets like Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela certainly hurt Copa Holdings (NYSE:CPA) in the recent past, as the shares dropped around 75% from their peak in early 2014 to their low in the fall of 2015 and accompanied a 20% drop in revenue driven by weaker yields. Since those 2015 lows, though, investors have come back to these shares in a big way - the shares are within 15% of their prior peak (and up more than 50% so far this year) as yields have started to recover and the company has been expanding capacity.

There are a lot of positives that I see with Copa. The challenges in 2014-2016 forced the company's management to take a more critical look at their operations, and I believe efforts to control costs, improve revenue yield, and re-emphasize profitable expansion will pay off down the road. What's more, the company remains well-placed in a critical hub location (Panama's Tocumen airport) and continues to focus on low-traffic routes that don't lend themselves to profitable direct competition. Add in numerous future expansion opportunities and the recovery potential of Brazil and Colombia, and I believe Copa can look forward to strong growth for a number of years.

Read the full article here:
Copa Holdings Flying High Again On Market Recoveries And Internal Improvements

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Wins Another Round

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) scored another big win Thursday morning, with the company's detailed presentation of clinical data on patisiran showing strong efficacy and safety relative to future competitor Ionis's (IONS) data on inotersen in patients with hereditary ATTR amyloidosis with polyneuropathy (also called familial amyloid polyneuropathy, or FAP).

Alnylam's data were quite good, but not a knock-out blow against Ionis's inotersen, as you can expect Ionis to build its marketing message around an easier and more tolerable administration and perhaps compete on price. Still, for Alnylam, this head-to-head competition went about as well as could be expected and should raise the hopes of getting an advantageous label from the FDA.

Read the full article here:
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Wins Another Round

Neurocrine's Ingrezza Launch Continues To Exceed Expectations

To quote from the A-Team, "I love it when a plan comes together." Although it is still very early, Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) is executing well on the launch of its wholly-owned drug Ingrezza, and its partner AbbVie (ABBV) continues to move elagolix closer to the finish line for both endometriosis and uterine fibroids - indications that could both support more than $1 billion in royalty-generating sales. Additionally, Neurocrine continues to develop its clinical pipeline, with the company having started a new Phase IIb study for Ingrezza in pediatric Tourette's and planning to move its drug for congenital adrenal hyperplasia (or CAH) into a Phase II proof-of-concept study.

The market is reacting quite positively to the much better than expected revenue for Ingrezza, and the strong initial launch is encouraging, but the next few quarters could be a little more volatile as Neurocrine will have to contend with a competitive launch from Teva (TEVA), sampling, and shifts between the 40mg and 80mg doses. Even so, I believe the shares are undervalued now, with multiple clinical events on the horizon.

Click here for more:
Neurocrine's Ingrezza Launch Continues To Exceed Expectations

Execution Risk Back On The Table At Wright Medical

Orthopedic extremity specialist Wright Medical (WMGI) continues to be a frustrating "two steps forward, almost two steps backward" story, as fiscal third quarter results came in below expectations, and management lowered guidance on ongoing execution issues in the lower extremity business. Although the strength of the shoulder business is a meaningful positive, and the lower extremity business is hardly beyond repair, the company's inability to drive consistent execution relative to its own targets remains frustrating and an impediment to the stock.

I've previously said that Wright Medical is a stock to consider buying in the mid-$20s and selling in the mid-$30s, and I believe that remains the case. While the latest reset to expectations is disappointing, Wright Medical still has the potential to grow revenue at a high single-digit long-term rate and drive FCF margins into the 20%s. "Potential" is one of the dangerous words in investing, though, so investors have to at least consider the risk that Wright Medical's ongoing execution issues remain in place, and/or that rivals like Stryker (SYK) steal the company's thunder in the still-fast-growing extremities market.

Continue here:
Execution Risk Back On The Table At Wright Medical

Better Late Than Never For MSC Industrial

One of the recent concerns about industrial maintenance, repair, and overhaul (or MRO) supply distributor MSC Industrial (NYSE:MSM) was why this leading distributor of metalworking tools (among other MRO supplies) was not seeing more benefit from the emerging industrial recovery in North America. Those concerns should ease a bit with the strong daily sales reported for the fiscal fourth quarter, but the company's long-term margin leverage remains a key question, and increased competition from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and now Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) shouldn't be ignored.

I've owned MSC Industrial for some time, and I've written many times that when there's a conflict between "good company" and "good valuation", I go with the former. That said, there are legitimate arguments as to whether MSC is as good of a company as it used to be and whether today's valuation already captures a lot of what can go right for the business. Although I'm not rushing for the door, and there aren't a lot of clear bargains in the industrial space, it's hard for me to make a buy-case on the stock beyond a play on improving trends (momentum) in metalworking and related industries and at least a few more beat-and-raise quarters.

Read more here:
Better Late Than Never For MSC Industrial

3M Comes Back Strong In The Third Quarter

With its high valuation multiples and above-average visibility, 3M (MMM) needed a better result than what it delivered in the second quarter – a quarter that was marked by average organic revenue growth, rare pricing weakness, and weak margin performance. Fortunately, for shareholders, 3M came through and delivered a quarter that, while not perfect, was still quite strong on a relative basis.

Valuation is still problematic. I can’t really come up with a set of circumstances whereby these shares look cheap, so I suppose the argument comes down to some version of “almost of all of its peers are expensive, so if you have to own an expensive stock, why not this one?” I still own these shares myself (but it is not a large part of my portfolio), and I think management still has moves to make to drive better results, but I do worry that today’s valuation is setting the stage for unimpressive returns down the line.

Read more here:
3M Comes Back Strong In The Third Quarter

Renewed Operating Leverage From U.S. Bancorp Nice To See

Long one of the best-run banks out there, U.S. Bancorp (USB) has an interesting long-term challenge – as the performance of the “pack” continues to improve, does U.S. Bancorp still have levers to pull that can continue to allow it to stand out? This is, after all, a conservatively-run, very efficient, not especially asset-sensitive operation that already has sizable (and lucrative) fee-generating, non-banking businesses.

I thought U.S. Bancorp's shares were pretty richly valued at the start of the year, and the year-to-date performance, though positive, has lagged the S&P 500 and rival banks like Bank of America (BAC), PNC (PNC), JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and SunTrust (STI). I expect profitability to improve next year, as the AML/BSA issue resolves, and asset sensitivity has been improving, but the shares still aren’t cheap. I wouldn’t suggest that long-term investors need to consider bailing out, but I do think the total return prospects are relatively modest.

Click here for more:
Renewed Operating Leverage From U.S. Bancorp Nice To See

Asset Sensitivity And Cost Restructuring Have Brought Comerica's Groove Back

Comerica (CMA) is something of an odd duck in its pond. Big enough to have to go through the CCAR process and operating across an extended geographic footprint, CMA is nevertheless quite a bit smaller than the likes of U.S. Bancorp (USB), PNC Financial (PNC), BB&T (BBT), and Fifth Third (FITB). It’s also uncommonly asset-sensitive and committed to business lending – residential mortgages and consumer loans make up less than 10% of the loan book – but has long struggled to achieve attractive operating leverage.

Odd isn’t always a bad thing, though, and Comerica is reaping the benefits of higher rates and a thorough restructuring effort. If U.S. growth can accelerate from here, driving better commercial loan demand, Comerica could really enjoy a run of strong earnings growth. That said, the share have shot up more than 50% in the last year, and more than 75% in the last three years, and it is difficult to see much undervaluation unless you factor in some combination of higher-than-expected rates, 3%-plus U.S. GDP growth, less regulation, and/or meaningfully lower corporate taxes.

Read the full article here:
Asset Sensitivity And Cost Restructuring Have Brought Comerica's Groove Back

Grupo Aeroportuario Del Centro Norte Still A Tough Call As Traffic Weakens

I wasn’t overly fond of the short-term prospects for Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (NASDAQ:OMAB) (or “OMA”) back in July, as I was concerned about how the shares would respond to further weakness in traffic and headline risk around NAFTA, not to mention longer-term concerns regarding the Mexican economy, the next election cycle, and changes to air traffic patterns within Mexico. The shares are down about 20% in that short window since July, with rivals/peers Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (NYSE:PAC) and Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (NYSE:ASR) down roughly similar amounts. 

Traffic growth has continued to weaken, and not just because of multiple natural disasters. Worse yet, there are particular pockets of weakness (like the non-aero revenue per passenger trends in Monterrey) that still concern me. As I already expected weaker results, the changes to my model are mostly tied to currency moves, and my fair value is still above today’s price. While the apparent undervaluation is tempting, buying into shaky traffic trends and problematic per-passenger revenue is uncomfortable for me and I’m inclined to keep watching this name from the sideline.

Read more here:
Grupo Aeroportuario Del Centro Norte Still A Tough Call As Traffic Weakens

Not Much Going Right For Wells Fargo Yet

When I last wrote about Wells Fargo (WFC) earlier this year, I thought the shares were undervalued, but that the company was going to need time to pull itself out of the hole it created with its fraudulent sales/account processes. Since then, the shares have continued to underperform peers like Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan (JPM), PNC (PNC), and U.S. Bancorp (USB), as the bank's performance continues to underwhelm on multiple fronts.

Although the shares do still seem undervalued (in a relatively expensive banking sector), the weak trends in loan growth, interest margin expansion, and key fee-generating businesses are a concern to me. I do believe Wells Fargo's huge deposit base and strong market share across a wide swath of the country should, and does, count for something, as well as the bank's sizable middle market and asset-backed/equipment finance operations. For patient investors who can live with near-term underperformance, these shares are still worth consideration.

Read more here:
Not Much Going Right For Wells Fargo Yet

Monsanto Ending On A Position Of Strength

For a company that has been around for a while and leads its industry, there’s an odd cyclical quality to Monsanto (MON) where sell-side analysts seem to get ahead/behind of the company’s growth curve, leading to multi-quarter periods of out/under-performance relative to expectations. Monsanto looks to be late in the game with another outperformance cycle, but that likely matters much less now that the company should be approaching the end of the line as a publicly-traded company.

It remains to be seen if Bayer (OTCPK:BAYRY) will get all of the final approvals it needs to acquire Monsanto. No insurmountable obstacles have appeared yet, but there is still a risk that regulators could dig in their heels and/or demand concessions that Bayer finds unacceptance. Although there’s still about 5% upside between today’s price and the deal price, that’s not really out of line relative to the remaining risk (and time). Consequently, I’m more inclined to look for the exit with my Monsanto position and find new investment ideas.

Read the full article here:
Monsanto Ending On A Position Of Strength

PNC Financial Producing Balanced, High Quality Growth

PNC Financial’s (PNC) management is relatively conservative in many respects, but that is not keeping the company from posting good numbers as spreads increase and credit remains benign. Better still, there are plans on the table with respect to expanded commercial lending and improved retail banking efficiency that should support additional incremental growth in the years to come.

Although Bank of America (BAC) has outperformed PNC over the last year, PNC’s share price performance has been quite strong relative to peers like Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and BB&T (BBT). Looking ahead, PNC has above-average growth prospects, but the shares do seem to already reflect a lot of that. Changes to corporate tax law and/or bank regulation could support higher growth rates, but the shares look more or less fairly-valued on the assumption of 6% to 7% long-term growth. That said, in a banking sector without a lot of clear bargains, I do believe PNC is an incrementally better option.

Read more here:
PNC Financial Producing Balanced, High Quality Growth

For Citigroup, Slow And Steady Could Still Win The Race

Even though Citigroup (NYSE:C) has left something to be desired with respect to the pace of its recovery (particularly next to peers like JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)), the shares’ 48% rise over the past year and 43% rise over the past three years is hardly embarrassing. Although shareholders of JPMorgan, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), and PNC Financial Services Group (NYSE:PNC) have fared better over that longer time period, Citi has nevertheless outperformed U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB), BB&T (NYSE:BBT), and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC).., and could yet have the opportunity to do meaningfully better in the years to come.

I don’t believe Citi has really earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to management’s performance targets out to 2020, and I do believe there are some optimistic assumptions in there, but I nevertheless believe that expectations are still relatively low. If Citi could generate long-term earnings growth in the range of 5% a year (a little higher than my base case), the shares would look undervalued on the basis of my discounted earnings model. Likewise, if the company can do better in terms of generating return on tangible equity (or if the Street decides to penalize lower-return banks less than it has), there would be upside on a ROTE-P/TBV basis.

Read more here:
For Citigroup, Slow And Steady Could Still Win The Race

JPMorgan: Another Quarter, Another Beat

The idea of “core” earnings can seem a little wobbly when it comes to large banks, but JPMorgan Chase (JPM) has been executing well relative to expectations for almost three years now. Not only has JPMorgan maintained a strong position in areas like trading and credit cards, it has shown that it can grow share in retail banking, commercial banking, and commercial services. With that, JPMorgan shares have done quite well over that same time period – handily beating Citigroup (C), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Wells Fargo (WFC), and outperforming Bank of America (BAC) and PNC (PNC) too, although just barely in the case of PNC.

Although the shares no longer look like a clear-cut bargain, that’s a common issue across the banking sector (if not the market as a whole). It does still look as though the shares are priced for mid-to-high single-digit returns, so I wouldn’t be in a big hurry to sell – particularly as I believe JPMorgan still has opportunities to drive worthwhile revenue and earnings growth in the coming years.

Click here for more:
JPMorgan: Another Quarter, Another Beat

BorgWarner Delivering The Content Growth

BorgWarner (BWA) has had a good year. I last wrote about the stock around the time of its 2016 investor meeting and thought then that the stock was undervalued and that the Street was overly pessimistic about the company’s positioning for the eventual transition away from internal combustion engines. It also didn’t help matters that the company hadn’t been doing a great job with its quarterly financial results vis a vis management guidance and analyst estimates. Since then, organic growth has improved significantly and the company has made a pretty compelling case for how and why it will continue to be a leader throughout the process of electrifying passenger vehicles. The shares have certainly responded – rising nearly 50% since that last article.

It’s harder for me to bullish now given the valuation. I don’t think the company is likely to get the FCF margin leverage it needs to validate today’s price on a DCF basis, though I freely acknowledge that content/share growth and margin leverage are more important drivers to the shares of auto components companies in the short run. This is back on a watchlist for me now, though, as I would like a better balance of opportunity and risk before committing funds to a position.

Continue here:
BorgWarner Delivering The Content Growth

Dana Doing The Right Things And Reaping The Benefits

Finding an undervalued stock with a solid story behind it is always good, but finding that story getting better with time is even better. That's what appears to be happening with Dana (DAN), as this diversified supplier of components for passenger, commercial, and off-highway vehicles continues to execute well on its plan to grow content, improve margins, and position itself for the evolving demands of its end-markets.

It can be deceptively easy to get caught up in and taken along with Wall Street's short attention span-driven boom-and-doom cycles. With that in mind, I've been cautious about fundamentally overhauling my long-term growth and profitability assumptions for the business. I do like Dana's prospects for value-adding M&A, margin self-improvement, and leveraging a better mix (including more power tech products down the line), but I don't believe Dana is going to suddenly become a FCF-generating machine in an industry where mid-single-digit margins are generally the best that even great companies (like Cummins (CMI)) can do. To that end, while a fair value in the $20s seems reasonable, and I'm comfortable modeling exceptional cash flow growth, today's valuation already seems to be pricing in a lot of progress.

Read more here:
Dana Doing The Right Things And Reaping The Benefits

Tenneco Generating Above-Sector Growth While The EV Future Looms

It’s commonly accepted that stock prices are, at least in part, a product of discounted future expectations. The trick here is that how far investors will try to look into the future, and how they view that future, is almost always in flux. And so it is with Tenneco (TEN) – while this leading provider of emissions control and ride performance products is enjoying above-sector growth on the back of increasing content, the shares have gotten smacked around from time to time on worries about Tenneco’s place in the future evolution of passenger vehicles.

Electric vehicles (and battery-powered vehicles in particular) are almost certainly coming, but how quickly they become the predominant vehicle type on the road is an open question and has a lot of ramifications for modeling out Tenneco’s cash flow. Assuming 10% annual erosion in the emissions business starting in the late 2020’s still gives me a fair value around $60, making these shares more of toss-up after this strong rally from the low $50’s.

Read more here:
Tenneco Generating Above-Sector Growth While The EV Future Looms

Wabtec In A Value-Growth Tug-Of-War

Wabtec (WAB), one of the leading suppliers of parts, components, and systems to the freight and transit train sectors, continues to see turbulent conditions both in its operating results and its share price performance. The stock has gone basically nowhere since I last wrote about the company, but there’s actually been some pretty wide swings between the peak and trough (roughly 35%) over the past year as investors seem to be struggling with a strong “want to like” instinct and some rather spotty financial results.

The shares still leave me a little uneasy. I think Wabtec is well-run and I believe the Faiveley deal will add value both through expense leverage and broadening the company’s horizons (in transit and in non-U.S. markets). But I also believe that freight spending could be weaker than bulls expect, and these shares often react poorly to disappointment. I do believe that mid-to-high single-digit growth can support a fair value in the $80’s, but investors considering these shares need to be aware of that ongoing tug-of-war between the bull and bear camps and the impact it can have on the share price in the short term, and especially around events like earnings reports.

Click here for more:
Wabtec In A Value-Growth Tug-Of-War