Sunday, February 11, 2018

Lundbeck Looks Largely Played Out

I’m often sloth-like when it comes to selling positions in good companies, but it looks to me like the time to part company with H. Lundbeck A/S (OTCPK:HLUYY) (LUN.CO) may be close at hand. Despite concerted efforts to differentiate its new product portfolio, Lundbeck is struggling to gain much headway versus generics in the U.S., while generic competition continues to threaten lucrative profit centers in the mature portfolio. What’s more, the cupboards are pretty bare when it comes to the pipeline, and though management seems more positive on M&A than it has in the past, early-stage assets aren’t likely to garner much enthusiasm.

Lundbeck shares are trading around my fair value, suggesting a total return potential in the high-single digits – which really isn’t too bad today (and part of the reason I’ve been slow to sell). The announcement of a new CEO could also be a stock-moving event (in either direction), as he or she will likely have a vision for Lundbeck that offers at least some change from today. I don’t believe my low single-digit growth expectations are all that aggressive, but these shares are looking pretty “meh” after a strong run driven by new launches and rigorous cost restructuring.

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Lundbeck Looks Largely Played Out

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