Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Alfa Laval's Resiliency Back In The Share Price

There are some stocks out there that always (or almost always) get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to valuation – names like Atlas Copco (OTCPK:ATLKY) and Danaher (DHR) spring to mind pretty readily – and then there are names where it seems like the market is more apt to just somehow “forget” the underlying quality of the business, and I think Alfa Laval (OTCPK:ALFVY) fits in that group. While there are undeniable cyclical parts to the business, I believe the volatility in the share price is outsized for a company with a good full-cycle track record when it comes to returns on invested capital, free cash flow, and other metrics.

I thought the market was overly spooked by second quarter results and guidance and that the shares looked appealing back in July. With a nearly 30% move in the ADRs since then, as part of a bigger rally in many industrial names, the undervaluation is more or less gone now and the annualized prospective returns seem more in line with the 6% - 8% range that is common now for quality industrials (Dover (DOV), Honeywell (HON), Rockwell (ROK), et al). As such, I think Alfa Laval is a decent hold and a name to consider adding on pullbacks along the way.

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Alfa Laval's Resiliency Back In The Share Price

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