Investopedia: Disney Does It Again

As I said in my last write-up of Disney (NYSE:DIS), there's an element of predictable unpredictability to this company and that came through again this quarter. Like so many other consumer-oriented stocks, though, Disney has been on an absolute tear – more than doubling the performance of the S&P 500 over the past year. While I wouldn't worry about that if I were a long-term holder of Disney (and still planning on being one), valuation is making it appear as though there's a housing bubble for the House of the Mouse.

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Investopedia: Disney Has A Stable Of Horses To Ride

While the quality of global entertainment and media giant Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is generally taken as a given, the company has always been a little more erratic in terms of margins, cash flows and returns on capital than most companies of its size and reputation. These variances are largely a byproduct of the nature of the business (particularly hit movies), but they can still create opportunities for investors. Disney seldom gets very cheap, and the company has multiple levers to improve results over the coming years. But investors should keep their eyes open for a chance to pick up shares should the stock stumble on transitory bad news.

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An Increasingly Small World For Disney

Sometimes, conventional wisdom is not so wise. Take the case of media giant Disney (NYSE:DIS) - the conventional wisdom is that the popularity and ubiquity of its brands (and its eternal appeal to kids) insulates it from economic conditions. That so-called wisdom bypasses the reality that it takes money to go to theme parks, advertising on networks trails off in recessions and movie production requires large upfront investments for uncertain returns. 

Diversification Shows its AdvantagesThat said, Disney's diversified asset base has helped the company weather the downturn in relatively good order, and this quarter was another example. Revenue rose about 6% overall as strength in the cable and film business offset pretty iffy results in broadcast TV and theme parks. Margins likewise have stayed strong, even as the company lays out significant money for programming rights for ESPN. One note of caution on the margins, though. Successful movies like Alice in Wonderland can certainly boost profitability, but seemingly every studio has a dry spell from time to time and they are inherently impossible to predict (few studio execs would green-light a movie they know is doomed to fail).  

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