Painfully Complex, Cosan Remains An Undervalued Play On Brazil

As I have written before, U.S. investors are not exactly spoiled for choice when it comes to Brazilian investments. Cosan Ltd. (NYSE:CZZ) has a lot to offer, including exposure to multiple major long-term opportunities within Brazil's economy, but the holding company structure is complicated and this is a difficult company to track and model. Still, with a holding company discount rate in excess of 30%, relatively healthy underlying fundamentals for the sugar, ethanol, and retail fuel businesses, and good long-term prospects in the rail business, this is worth a look.

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Painfully Complex, Cosan Remains An Undervalued Play On Brazil

Seeking Alpha: Cosan Ltd Looks Like Value The Hard Way

The shares of Cosan Ltd. (NYSE:CZZ) are hardly unique in being Brazilian shares that have done poorly over the past year, as Brazil's ongoing economic struggles and currency weakness have badly hurt many stocks. Cosan has a host of its own challenges, though, as investors wrestle with the prospects for Cosan SA's (CSAN3.SA) Raizen joint venture to improve profits and cash flow in the sugar and ethanol operators, as well Rumo's (RUMO3.SA) very weak share price and its prospects for raising much-needed capital on acceptable terms.

The positive spin on Cosan Ltd. is that it gives investors a one-stop exposure to one of the largest sugar and ethanol producers in the world, as well as a leading operator of gas stations in Brazil, a large natural gas distribution business, and a growing rail and port operator. The negative spin is that those sugar and ethanol operations have never generated great returns on capital and that the logistics operations need very large amounts of capital in the coming years. There's also a negative argument for complexity here - this is a tough business to model and the holding company structure creates risks and inefficiencies.

When it's all said and done, I believe that Cosan Ltd. is undervalued, but this is a good example of a stock where investors may find the return prospects significantly overshadowed by the risk and complexity. These shares can definitely outperform on a Brazilian economic recovery, but there are significant commodity, macroeconomic, and operational risks to consider.

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Cosan Ltd Looks Like Value The Hard Way

Seeking Alpha: Cosan's Value Is Worth The Hassle

I would imagine that those investors tending towards the OCD side of the spectrum who look into Cosan Ltd. (CZZ) will eventually have wisps of smoke coming out of their ears. Not only does Cosan Ltd. have a convoluted ownership structure (Cosan Ltd. technically owns about 62% of Cosan SA (CSAN3), and Chairman Ometto owns more than 40% of Cosan Ltd.), but the basic business of Cosan is confusing as well with its mix of JVs and wholly-owned operations.

What I believe is a lot simpler to understand is the value proposition. Although Cosan Ltd. routinely trades at a discount of 15% to 20% of the implied value of its Cosan SA position, Cosan Ltd. is the one that most U.S. investors can own and Cosan Ltd. shares themselves appear to be about 30% undervalued. Cosan is vulnerable to Brazil's opaque regulatory policies in multiple ways and Cosan Ltd. is vulnerable to currency moves, but I believe there is significant value in a company that is Brazil's largest sugar and ethanol producer and a significant player in fuel distribution (gas stations), natural gas distribution, and commodity logistics.

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Cosan's Value Is Worth The Hassle