Seeking Alpha: Key Energy Services Needs To Get Its Act Together

Many energy service stocks have had a tough time since early July, but Key Energy Services (NYSE:KEG) has had it worse. This is not wholly undeserved, as the company has been struggling to overcome weak international results, delays from customers in California, and a concerning lack of momentum in key basins like the Permian. Although Key is one of the biggest players in well servicing, fluid management, coiled tubing, and frac stacks (all vital offerings in the onshore market), I have to question whether the company has been seeing market share losses. Key Energy Services does look undervalued today, but so do Basic Energy Services (NYSE:BAS) and Superior Energy Services (NYSE:SPN), and management needs to be on point and drive better execution in the remainder of 2014.

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Key Energy Services Needs To Get Its Act Together

Seeking Alpha: Have Expectations Exceeded Helmerich & Payne's Capacity To Outperform?

Even the best companies can find that expectations get so high that it's almost impossible not to disappoint the Street. Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP) is certainly one of the best companies in the energy services sector, as its AC drive FlexRigs have allowed the company to claim leadership in U.S. onshore contract drilling on the back of the surge in horizontal drilling in unconventional shales. Helmerich & Payne was hardly the only service company to sell off on calendar second quarter earnings but the shares aren't strikingly cheap today, even considering the company's growing international drilling business and its strong record of dividend growth.

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Have Expectations Exceeded Helmerich & Payne's Capacity To Outperform?

Seeking Alpha: More Addition By Subtraction At Weatherford

I've long been fond of the expression "if it doesn't make dollars, it doesn't make sense," and I'm glad to see that Weatherford (NYSE:WFT) has gotten serious about adopting a similar philosophy. Back in March, the company sold its pipeline and specialty service business to Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) and before that the company sold its Russian ESP business for about $400 million. Now Weatherford has sold its Russian and Venezuelan drilling rigs and in doing so not only got a decent price but also improved the prospects for its drilling rig IPO. Weatherford has done quite well on the back of increasing optimism around energy services and for its specific restructuring opportunities and there is still more upside from here.

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More Addition By Subtraction At Weatherford

Seeking Alpha: C&J Energy Services Goes All-In With The Nabors Deal

Small-cap energy services company C&J Energy Services (CJES) doesn't want to be small any longer. C&J has done a good job building its fracking business on the back of modern, high-spec equipment and the ability to execute well on challenging or complex jobs, but now the company is looking to be an integrated services provider that can compete more effectively with Halliburton (HAL), Schlumberger (SLB), and Baker Hughes (BHI). While I appreciate the willingness of C&J management to make such a bold move, I do wonder about the price paid and the quality of assets the company is getting in return.

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C&J Energy Services Goes All-In With The Nabors Deal

Seeking Alpha: Basic Energy Blowing Up

I liked Basic Energy Services (BAS) back in October, but even I didn't think the shares were going to snap back this strongly. Competition remains fierce in basins like the Permian and activity levels weren't great in the fourth quarter, but Basic Energy has done a good job of controlling costs while adding assets in its fluid services business.

It looks as though energy companies are getting an early start to their 2014 capex plans, and pricing is improving as a result. Valuation for small service companies is frustratingly imprecise, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of EBITDA estimates moving up throughout the year. For now, though, I think some of the excitement in the shares can be explained a reaction to some very loudly bearish analysts and a large short position, and I'd probably wait for the dust to settle a bit before buying.

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Basic Energy Blowing Up

Seeking Alpha: Another "Wait 'Til Next Year" Year For Key Energy Services

Between weak rig counts and rampant competition in some parts of the well servicing business, 2013 has been a big disappointment. Things have been turning up recently, though, as E&P spending budgets for 2014 are looking promising and investors are counting on pent-up demand leading to better results. Given the demands of horizontal wells, Key Energy Services (KEG) has reason to expect better days.

I was bullish on Basic Energy Services (BAS) back in October, and the stock is up more than 20% since then. At this point, I feel like BAS versus KEG is more of a "pick 'em". I think Key Energy is a better company, but it seems that the Street thinks so too and the valuation is a little higher on these shares. Although Key Energy shares appear to be priced to generate a decent return on moderate expectations for 2014, investors have to be willing to accept the risk that 2014 is another disappointing year in the oilfields of the U.S. and Mexico.

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Another "Wait 'Til Next Year" Year For Key Energy Services

Seeking Alpha: There's Still Room For Parker Drilling To Outperform

Parker Drilling (PKD) has been a public company for quite some time, but the company hasn't had what you'd call a consistent record of performance. Energy services, and drilling particular, has always been a volatile, cyclical business, but I would estimate that the company has only earned its cost of capital once or twice over the last decade. Maybe it's not altogether surprising then that the stock has stayed pretty much stuck in a band between $4 and $6 over the past four years.

These shares dipped slightly below that range in April of this year, only to exceed it slightly in July and here again more recently, but I believe these shares may yet be undervalued. Demand for drilling barges in the Gulf of Mexico has picked up, and so too has demand for rental tools (particularly for deepwater activities). At the same time, I think the company's progress with its international operations still has not been fully appreciated by the Street. Although Parker Drilling remains a "show me" story, I wouldn't be surprised if these shares trade between $8 and $9 before too much longer.

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There's Still Room For Parker Drilling To Outperform

Seeking Alpha: Basic Energy Services Looks Too Cheap

When I was thinking about writing up Basic Energy Services (BAS) for Seeking Alpha, I was surprised to see how little coverage there has been on the name on this platform. Sure, this is not a large energy services company (with a market cap around $500 million and an enterprise value around $1.3 billion), but it is the third-largest company in the well servicing industry and this is a business that could do substantially better when (or if?) demand and pricing improve in major basins like the Permian.

It's looking like 2013 is going to finish on a fairly sour note, as competition among service firms continues to keep a lid on prices and profits. The next year should be better, though, and even at relatively modest EBITDA multiples this stock looks undervalued. While I still presently prefer to own Cameron (CAM) and Weatherford (WFT), it's not by a wide margin and Basic would be high on my list if I wanted to go more overweight towards service companies.

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Basic Energy Services Looks Too Cheap

Investopedia: Best-Of-Breed Status Keeping Helmerich & Payne Near Fair Value

The past two- and five-year periods haven't been kind to the land drilling industry, but Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP) has fared quite a bit better than most. While rivals like Nabors (NYSE:NBR), Patterson-UTI (Nasdaq:PTEN), Precision Drilling (NYSE:PDS), and Pioneer Energy (NYSE:PES) have seen their shares decline from between 30% and 70% over the last two to five years, Helmerich & Payne is close to breakeven.

HP owes its success to a program of focused differentiation – namely, building high-spec rigs that not enable operators to drill the horizontal wells that are increasingly necessary to exploit oil and gas reservoirs, but to do so faster and with fewer drilling days. A significant recent increase in the dividend has demonstrated management's willingness to share success with shareholders, but the quality of this company is never far from the minds of Wall Street. Consequently, the shares don't look like a tremendous bargain today.

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Investopedia: Is Basic Energy Already Priced For The Worst Case?

The relief in second quarter energy services company performance needs to be kept in context. While Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) and Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) did indeed do better than feared, revenue was still down sequentially in North America, and operating margins were still soft. As a smaller player with less leverage, it's not surprising that Basic Energy Services (NYSE:BAS) is also suffering. While conditions are indeed challenging, and likely to remain so for 2012, today's valuation seems to put little faith in a rebound and may be an appealing entry point for risk-seeking investors.

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A Nabor-ly Deal For Superior Well Services

Give credit where credit is due - Nabors Industries (NYSE:NBR) is not messing around. Not content to just be the largest land-based driller in the world, the company is now moving more aggressively into services as well. With the acquisition of Superior Well Services (Nasdaq:SWSI), Nabors is definitely taking a significant step towards enhancing the breadth of services the company can offer. 

The Deal 
Before the open on Monday, Nabors announced that it was offering to pay $22.12 per share in cash in a tender offer for Superior Well Services. This deal has the support of Superior and roughly one-third of Superior's existing shareholders. All told, this will represent a roughly $900M cash outlay for Nabors, but the company will also be assuming over $160 million in debt on Superior's books.

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Judge Tosses Drilling Moratorium

A Federal District Judge in Louisiana has just ruled against the administration, overturning the government's 6-month ban on drilling in U.S. waters. Assuming it holds up on appeal (and the government has already said that it will appeal), it will once again be legal to drill in U.S. deepwater areas, and those 33 exploratory projects in the Gulf that were suspended by the ban can now restart.

I don't think it surprises anybody that there has been opposition to the ban, including industry representatives like Transocean (NYSE: RIG) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX).

Frankly, I'm with the drillers on this one. Locking things down after a rare disaster is an overreaction that plays well on TV and with the environmental groups, but doesn't score high on common sense. The reality is that drilling was going to recommence whether people liked it or not; the economic demands for ongoing offshore drilling are just too powerful to ignore.

What's more, it seems more and more certain that the rig disaster and oil spill were a product of a thankfully rare combination of reckless operation, very challenging geology, and ill-maintained equipment. Assuming that other drillers are going to be checking their blowout preventers VERY carefully and insisting upon conservative practices for cementing, the risk of another accident is very low.

After all, name the last major oil rig accident that resulted in an oil spill before the BP (NYSE: BP) Macando/Deepwater Horizon accident. Go ahead ... take your time ... I'll wait.

Clearly this could be good news for a whole host of Gulf and deepwater operators. Drillers like Rowan (NYSE: RDC), Ensco (NYSE: ESV), Noble (NYSE: NE), Nabors (NYSE: NBR), and Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO) should benefit, as well as a whole host of service providers like Cal-Dive (NYSE: DVR), Oceaneering (NYSE: OII), Tidewater (NYSE: TDW), and equipment companies like Cameron  (NYSE: CAM) and National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV).

The initial reaction hasn't been all that strong, though, as the Oil Equipment ETF (NYSE: IEZ) is down more than 1.5% as of this writing. If nothing else, this ruling could add even more pressure and uncertainty to situation as the administration may go to greater lengths to enforce its wishes on the industry. After all, you certainly don't make someone more friendly to your cause by suing them.

All in all, this ruling is a minor bit of positive news for a beaten-up sector, but it's only one round in a long battle. There are plenty of long-term reasons to stay positive on drilling and the energy sector, but also a lot of near-term noise and volatility. That's a great recipe for folks with the nerves and stamina to buy at a low price and just ride out any turbulence, but investors who find themselves shaken up when they see a holding down 10% or more from where they bought it should probably stay on the sideline for now.