Seeking Alpha: Ultra Petroleum Continuing To Yo-Yo Between Gloom And Glee

Even by the elevated standards of independent exploration and production companies, Ultra Petroleum (NYSE:UPL) seems to more often swing between doom-and-gloom bearishness and gleeful bullishness than the typical E&P stock. A debt-loaded balance sheet, so-so debt-adjusted production growth, and "okay" assets may explain some of the negativity, but Ultra's production growth hasn't really been that bad, the cash costs are competitive, and the company is executing in its oil-rich Uinta acreage. Like many E&Ps, Ultra Petroleum looks undervalued on a NAV basis (though rising costs are an issue to watch there), but the EBITDA-based approach doesn't suggest the same level of near-term opportunity.

Continue to the full article here:
Ultra Petroleum Continuing To Yo-Yo Between Gloom And Glee

Seeking Alpha: Ultra Petroleum And Weighing The Short Versus The Long

Sometimes it's just not enough to have low-cost assets when you're an exploration and production (E&P) company. Although Ultra Petroleum (UPL) has long boasted some of the most economical natural gas assets in the continental United States, the prolonged stretch of sub-$4/mmBtu natural gas prices has made it difficult for the company to get ahead. Comparing Ultra Petroleum's share price performance over the last two years to oil-heavy E&P companies like Oasis (OAS) and Whiting (WLL) or more balanced operators like Noble (NBL) tells the tale - Ultra shares are down 33% while the worst of those three others is still up almost 30%.

Even though gas prices have recently spiked over $4, nobody seems to be willing to assume yet that these prices will persist. That makes assessing the value of Ultra Petroleum an interesting time-dependent exercise. Even with the recent addition of oil-producing Uinta acreage, Ultra's 2014 EBITDA likely won't be high enough to justify buying today, but if you look instead at a long-term NAV based on natural gas prices of $3.50 or higher, a different conclusion presents itself.

Click here to continue:
Ultra Petroleum And Weighing The Short Versus The Long