Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Investopedia: Can Surveillance Save Vimicro?

By and large, tiny chip companies just don't make it - they lack the resources to keep up in R&D with the major chip companies, and large multinational companies are hesitant to trust key sockets to an unproven player. Factor in the additional risks that go with investing in small Chinese companies, and it is not hard to see why tiny Vimicro (Nasdaq:VIMC) has been all but forgotten by the market. It is worth asking, though, whether the development of the Chinese video surveillance market could yet make this a long shot worth considering.

Punting Mobile and Under Pressure in PCs
Vimicro's traditional business is in producing multimedia processors/controllers for PCs and mobile phones. More to the point, while companies like OmniVision (Nasdaq:OVTI) make the actual image sensors that go into PC-based webcams, Vimicro's chips handle more of the "back office" work for those webcams.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Can-Surveillance-Save-Vimicro-VIMC-TXN-AAPL-HPQ0411.aspx

Investopedia: EnerNOC Still A When AND If Story

It all sounds so simply, really. Improving energy efficiency frees utilities from building expensive new plants, lowers power bills and improves generating efficiency. So EnerNOC's (Nasdaq:ENOC) demand response model should be in real demand. Unfortunately, it hasn't been anything nearly so simple, and EnerNOC investors are still wondering if this company's business plan can gain real traction.

Customer Diversification Will Be a Challenge
One of the big issues for EnerNOC thus far has been its customer concentration. PJM Interconnection is responsible for over half of the company's revenue, while ISO New England comes in at another 20%. Given the recent issues with the FERC ruling on PJM's demand response policies (more on this later), this has become a bigger issue.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/EnerNOC-Still-A-When-AND-If-Story-ENOC-COMV-JCI-HON0411.aspx

Investopedia: Like Utilities, Penn Virginia Is Switching To Gas

The Penn Virginia Resource Partners (NYSE:PVR) that you knew and loved is soon to be a very different company. With a large acquisition of a private midstream gas company, Penn Virginia is largely becoming a gas gathering and processing company that also happens to have coal assets. While this is a deal with solid rationale behind it, current investors may well be troubled by the dilution involved and the fact that company will move from its plans to be a balanced coal and midstream gas company to a gas-heavy partnership.

The Deal of the Day
Penn Virginia announced Tuesday morning that it is going to acquire privately-held Chief Gathering LLC for $1 billion. While the company says that $200 million of the price will be paid in equity and the remainder in cash, that's not really true. $580 million of the "cash" is coming from the sale of common units and new Class B units that ultimately convert into common units.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Like-Utilities-Penn-Virginia-Is-Switching-To-Gas-PVR-ARLP-NRP-CHK0411.aspx

Investopedia: How Checklists Can Help Investors

It is easy to drown in the flood of information available in the financial markets. There's always one more report to read, one more press release to peruse or one more chart to interpret. In such an environment, it's easy to get pulled off course; information intended to help you, can actually make it difficult to maintain a consistent investment process.

Unfortunately, the market rewards disciplined investing and often quickly punishes emotional, distracted or disorganized approaches. What's more, it's easy to forget discipline when things are going especially well or especially bad. And then there's just human nature – humans are fallible creatures and even the best find it difficult to remember or replicate what worked three or four years ago.

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http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/12/Investors-Should-Check-Out-Checklists.asp

Investopedia: Rails Struggling To Replace King Coal

Investors still seem fully invested in the idea of ongoing economic recovery, but maybe that is starting to fade a bit. Not only have investors had to digest disappointing news on job growth, but rail traffic and other economic numbers are starting to look a little wobbly. The question for rail investors, then, is whether there's enough momentum left to replace the ongoing weak demand for coal.

March Numbers Look Familiar
"Ex-coal" has become an important qualifier when looking at recent railroad traffic data, and March was no exception. U.S. rail traffic dropped almost 6% on a year-over-year basis, and over 3% month-over-month for March. Ex-coal, the comparison improves to 2.4% (year over year) and ex-coal and ex-grain, it jumps further to 4.4%. While that's all well and good for the economy, the fact remains that lower carload volume is a headwind for rail operators.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Rails-Struggling-To-Replace-King-Coal-UNP-CSX-NSC-BTU-ANR0411.aspx

Investopedia: DBS Group - A Balanced Play On Asian Banking

It's too bad that more investors don't look to American Depositary Receipts as viable options to invest overseas, as many good companies are available with little sacrifice in volume or shareholder friendliness. One of the names well worth considering is Singapore's DBS Group (OTCBB:DBSDY.PK). While this bank does have some risks in its funding and its growing emerging market businesses, it has built a reputation over the years as a conservatively-run bank.

Looking To Go 40/30/30

Right now, Singapore is still a major component of DBS Group's earnings base (nearly 60%), with Greater China chipping in about 24% and countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) another 10%. Although Singapore will likely always remain an important operating area, DBS management is hoping to move its earnings base to something closer to a 40/30/30 model - 40% from Singapore, 30% from Greater China and 30% from ASEAN.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/DBS-Group--A-Balanced-Play-On-Asian-Banking-DBSDY-HBC-C-USB0411.aspx

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Investopedia: RPM Seeing The Benefit Of The Recovery

It's quite common to see the market reward companies for recoveries even before the evidence is all in hand. Although RPM International (NYSE:RPM) shares haven't been as strong as those of Fuller HB (NYSE:FUL), Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW), or Valspar (NYSE:VAL) over the past year, investors have nevertheless pushed up these shares over the past six months. Ongoing recoveries in the consumer and industrial markets could certainly drive the shares even further, but investors should realize that they're no longer looking at a markedly cheap stock.

Surprisingly Strong Third Quarter Results
RPM certainly helped its case with strong fiscal third quarter results. Revenue rose more than 15% as reported and nearly 11% on an organic basis, and handily surpassed the sell-side estimates. Interestingly, revenue was strong across both businesses; industrial saw a 12% revenue improvement on 7% volume growth, while consumer revenue rose more than 18%.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/RPM-Seeing-The-Benefits-Of-The-Recovery-RPM-FUL-SHW-VAL0410.aspx

Investopedia: Has Pier 1's Recovery Overshot The Mark?

What management at Pier 1 Imports (NYSE:PIR) has done over the last couple years is nothing short of remarkable. The U.S. retail market preys on weakness and routinely chews up companies that lose touch with their shoppers, never to be seen again. Not only has Pier 1 found a way to survive, but in many respects it's stronger than it has ever been.

Another Strong Quarter to Finish the Fiscal Year
Given that Pier 1 announced top-line results earlier, there weren't too many surprises with this quarter. Revenue rose nearly 12% this quarter, with comp-store growth of over 10%. Not only is that a pretty exceptional result for a large, established company, but it is also better than the 8.9% comp it delivered last year.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Has-Pier-1s-Recovery-Overshot-The-Mark-PIR-BBBY-CPWM-WSM0410.aspx

Investopedia: GeoResources - A More Obscure Play On Well-Known Formations

Almost anyone who pays attention to the oil and gas space is familiar with the robust growth in activity in the Eagle Ford and Bakken regions of the U.S. Companies like Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK), Anadarko (NYSE:APC) and EOG (NYSE:EOG) are major names in the Eagle Ford, while Continental (NYSE:CLR) and Kodiak Oil & Gas (NYSE:KOG) attract a lot of attention for their Bakken assets.

Amidst this, GeoResources (Nasdaq:GEOI) is a relatively lesser known name. Although it's not exactly undiscovered (about 14 sell side analysts cover it and over 75% of shares are owned by institutions), the relative valuation of other smaller Bakken/Eagle Ford plays suggests investors are not fully onboard the story just yet.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/GeoResources-A-More-Obscure-Play-On-Well-Known-Formations-GEOI-CLR-CHK-KOG0410.aspx

Seeking Alpha: Biogen Idec Gearing Up For Major Launches

There used to be a time when investors liked to buy biopharma stocks going into product launches. Nowadays, though, expectations seem to run hot on approval and the risk of disappointing launches outweighs the lower probability of surprising successes.

So how, then, should investors look at Biogen Idec (BIIB)? On one hand, this company could see several major launches over the next 12- 18 months that would add multiple potential blockbusters. On the other hand, the reality of the market today seems to be "buy the data, sell the launch."

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Biogen Idec Gearing Up For Major Launches

Seeking Alpha: AngioDynamics Quietly Getting Interesting

Although this year is looking a little better than last for med-tech stocks, it's still largely a revenue growth-driven phenomenon. To that end, AngioDynamics' (ANGO) unimpressive growth has pushed it towards being an afterthought for many investors. While this story is going to take time to develop, patient investors might like what they see here in terms of value for money.

No Fast Turnaround In Q3
AngioDynamics has a fairly stable business, which is fine when times are good but not so helpful when procedure volumes are weak. Reported revenue dropped nearly 6% this past quarter, as a nearly 10% decline in U.S. sales offset good growth in its small overseas business.

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AngioDynamics Quietly Getting Interesting

Investopedia: Triangle Petroleum Almost A Ground-Level Bakken Play

If there are any investors fretting that they have missed the story in the Bakken, a name like Triangle Petroleum (AMEX:TPLM) may be an answer to those worries. While Triangle is still a very risky story, the company is only just starting to develop its acreage in the Bakken region. If Triangle follows the same path carved out by others like Whiting (NYSE:WLL), Continental (NYSE:CLR), Kodiak (NYSE:KOG) and Oasis (NYSE:OAS), investors may be able to look forward to considerable growth in reserves, production, and market valuation over the coming years.

Still (Mostly) A Land Story 
For all of the talk about the Bakken, it's still a new energy-producing region in North America and there is plenty of growth yet to come from the area. While activity in the Bakken is largely dominated by larger, well-established companies for whom the Bakken is just another operating region, Triangle is a different story altogether.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Triangle-Petroleum-Almost-A-Ground-Level-Bakken-Play-TPLM-WLL-CLR-KOG-MRO-STO-EOG0410.aspx

Investopedia: Forget Nano, FEI Is Real

Like all fads, the craze for everything "nano" pushed up a lot of junk stocks and produced few real companies before investors moved on to the next new new thing. While FEI Company (Nasdaq:FEIC) has gotten attention for its nano credibility, investors would probably do well to see this more as an analytical technologies company like Waters (NYSE:WAT), Thermo Fisher (NYSE:TMO) or Agilent (NYSE:A) than a hot next-generation tech story.

While the company does still have a large footprint in the cyclical electronics sector, the company is finding more and more applications for its technologies in sectors like natural resources and life sciences. Moreover, as the company continues to drive down the costs of its own technology, electron microscopy adoption could grow at an accelerating rate, as it has happened before with many other analytical technologies.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Forget-Nano-FEI-Is-Real-FEIC-WAT-TMO-A0410.aspx

Seeking Alpha: ArQule Dips, But Not Necessarily A Bargain

There are really only two reliable catalysts for biotech stocks - reporting clinical data and announcing equity offerings - and the latter one is seldom a positive for the stock. With ArQule (ARQL) looking to increase its sharecount by more than 11% (including the shoe), Tuesday's 12% decline on another red day in the market doesn't seem so out of line. Even with the pullback though, it's not blatantly clear to me that this is a must-own biotech.

Queuing Up For Tivantinib Data
Far and away the most valuable asset for ArQule is its Phase III drug tivantinib - a c-Met receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor. C-Met is a popular target these days, with companies including Roche (RHHBY.PK), AVEO (AVEO), Amgen (AMGN), Bristol-Myers (BMY), and Exelixis (EXEL) all developing drugs with this target in mind.

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ArQule Dips, But Not Necessarily A Bargain

Seeking Alpha: Xenoport More Interesting After Washed Out Expectations

It hasn't captured nearly as much attention as Human Genome Sciences and its troubled launch of Benlysta in lupus, but XenoPort (XNPT) too has seen some serious disappointment with the launch of its drug Horizant. While XenoPort's lead drugs are unlikely to ever live up to initial hopes and legal wrangling with its partner Glaxo (GSK) will suck away precious cash, these shares may have been beaten down to a point of value.

Horizant - Efficacy Not The Issue; Cost-Benefit Is
Central to the XenoPort story today is the thus far disappointing launch of Horizant - the company's gabapentin prodrug for restless leg. While XenoPort and its partner Glaxo were able to navigate the shoals of the FDA approval process, approval and commercial launch has not been the key to easy money.

Read the full piece here:
Xenoport More Interesting After Washed Out Expectations

Monday, April 9, 2012

Seeking Alpha: Will Human Genome End Up Blazing A Trail For Others?

Human Genome Sciences' (HGSI) Benlysta isn't the first would-be blockbuster to disappoint investors with its initial launch, but it's one of the larger disappointments in recent memory. While there is still a good case to make for Benlysta eventually being a successful drug, it's starting to look as though Human Genome and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) may do all of the heavy lifting and trailblazing in lupus only to ultimately get left behind.

Benlysta - Waiting For Trialing, Or Waiting For Godot?
At the time of its approval, Benlysta was hailed as a multi-billion dollar blockbuster drug in the making. What's more, reading sell-side research would lead one to think that the SEC passed a rule requiring all analysts to mention that Benlysta is the first new drug for lupus in 50 years.

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Will Human Genome End Up Blazing A Trail For Others?

Seeking Alpha: Investors Already Expect A Lot From Ariad Pharmaceuticals

Biotech investors have to make some tough choices when it comes to oncology drug companies. On one side of the ledger are small, cheap-looking stocks that could triple if their pivotal trials beat the odds and succeed. On the other side are the companies which much more certain prospects, but considerably higher valuations. With Ariad Pharmaceuticals' (ARIA) stock already incorporating some pretty big things, investors have to ask how much more than can expect to reap from it.

Shrugging Off A Minor Setback
News from Ariad hasn't been all that positive of late. The FDA's advisory committee roundly punted the application made by Ariad's partner Merck (MRK) to market ridaforolimus for sarcoma. While modest improvements in progression-free survival had kept expectations low, bad news is still bad news. Although the loss to Ariad's implied valuation was minimal (perhaps $2 to $3 per share based on about $175 million to $200 million in potential revenue and milestones/royalties), the co-promotion angle could have been of more long-term use to Ariad.

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Investors Already Expect A Lot From Ariad Pharmaceuticals

Seeking Alpha: Greenbrier's Thorny Valuation

Rail traffic may be a little twitchy these days as coal shipments plunge, but railroads and railcar leasing companies continue to rebuild their fleets after a major plunge during the recession. While Greenbrier (GBX) undoubtedly has a lot to gain from this multi-year cycle, the question of fair value gets a little tricky.

Another Strong Quarter
Certainly Greenbrier is making hay while the sun shines. Revenue jumped 60% this quarter as the company saw a 68% increase in car deliveries. More specifically, the company saw a better than 100% increase in car manufacturing revenue, while wheel service/refurbishment revenue rose about 7% and revenue from the leasing operations rose about 15%.

Profitability also dramatically improved as the company better covers its fixed costs. Reported operating income came close to tripling, while adjusted EBITDA more than doubled. All in all, the company handily surpassed the average sell-side EPS estimate, though the outperformance in revenue was not quite as large.

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Greenbrier's Thorny Valuation

Investopedia: Burger King Coming Back To The Market

Investors hankering to own a piece of Burger King apparently won't have to worry about a long wait. While this well-known fast food chain was taken private less than two years ago, it looks the company's current owners are going to pursuing a listing once again on the NYSE. Given the ongoing performance problems, though, investors may want to let others take the first bites.

A Quick Turnaround, Minus the Turnaround 
Investors would do well to ask themselves why 3G Capital is in such a hurry to put Burger King back on the public market. After all, private equity investors aren't really known for being especially generous when it comes to sharing in the success of a really good idea. The company recently announced a merger with Justice Holdings (OTCBB:JSTUF), an investment vehicle co-founded by Bill Ackman and publicly listed in London. As part of the merger, 3G Capital gets $1.4 billion in cash and maintains its majority position, but will also list the combined company on the NYSE.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Burger-King-Coming-Back-To-The-Market-JSTUF.PK-MCD-WEN-CMG0409.aspx

Investopedia: KLAC Looking To Click With The Current Chip Cycle

KLA-Tencor (Nasdaq:KLAC) has a lot of what investors ought to look for when shopping for stocks for their portfolio. The company is a leader in its space (with greater than 50% market share), posts excellent relative margins and continues to simultaneously re-invest in the business without being miserly towards shareholder capital.

All of that said, KLA-Tencor is a semiconductor equipment company and more than a decade of positive cash flow doesn't erase the cyclicality of this sector or this business. While ever-smaller circuits increase the demand for more sophisticated equipment, predicting the peaks and valleys of the cycle is notoriously difficult and investors have started to get a little more cautious.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/KLAC-Looking-To-Click-With-The-Current-Chip-Cycle-KLAC-AMAT-RTEC-TSM-LRCX0409.aspx