Approval and launch hasn't quite meant Easy Street for Seattle Genetics (SGEN). Granted, the company now carries a $2 billion market cap and has doubled over the past two years, but there still seems to be a great deal of controversy about the true potential of its drug Adcetris and the subsequent fair value. Oddly enough, perhaps part of the answer is for Seattle Genetics to think a little more like a pharmaceutical company and a little less like a biotech.
Where Will Adcetris Go?
Arguing about market potential and peak sales is nothing new in biotech -- just review the debates at AEterna Zentaris (AEZS) or Vivus (VVUS) sometime -- but the spread in sell-side estimates for Adcetris still surprises me. I've seen expectations as low as $250 million to as much as $900 million. On the low end, it would assume that Seattle Genetics finds largely unmitigated failure in extending the label and usage; on the high end, it presupposes that almost everything goes right.
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Should Seattle Genetics Start Thinking More Like A Pharma Company?
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