Thursday, December 18, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Lundbeck Continues To Fight To Stand Out

The Danish pharmaceutical company H Lundbeck A/S (OTCPK:HLUYY) (LUN.CO) isn't going to resolve its challenges quickly. While I continue to believe there is a strong argument to be made that Lundbeck has developed a roster of differentiated CNS products that can stand apart from branded and generic competitors, the fact remains that the Street has yet to be convinced and the company is still facing significant near-term profit erosion from lost patent coverage on key drugs and significant investments to support drug launches.

Buying Lundbeck now remains a bet on the prospects that better clinical data for key products like Brintellix, Abilify Maintena, and brexpiprazole will translate into major sales and that compounds like Selincro and Northera will emerge as significant contributors in their own right. With base-case upside of around 25% and bull-case upside of more than 40%, I continue to believe it's a bet worth making for more aggressive investors.

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Lundbeck Continues To Fight To Stand Out

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