The Danish pharmaceutical company H Lundbeck A/S (OTCPK:HLUYY)
(LUN.CO) isn't going to resolve its challenges quickly. While I
continue to believe there is a strong argument to be made that Lundbeck
has developed a roster of differentiated CNS products that can stand
apart from branded and generic competitors, the fact remains that the
Street has yet to be convinced and the company is still facing
significant near-term profit erosion from lost patent coverage on key
drugs and significant investments to support drug launches.
Buying
Lundbeck now remains a bet on the prospects that better clinical data
for key products like Brintellix, Abilify Maintena, and brexpiprazole
will translate into major sales and that compounds like Selincro and
Northera will emerge as significant contributors in their own right.
With base-case upside of around 25% and bull-case upside of more than
40%, I continue to believe it's a bet worth making for more aggressive
investors.
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Lundbeck Continues To Fight To Stand Out
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