Like Universal Stainless (NASDAQ:USAP), I thought back in February that Carpenter Technology (NYSE:CRS) was an interesting high-risk way to play improving sentiment about aerospace (or aerospace components) with maybe an "at least it won't get worse" kicker from energy. Like USAP, Carpenter has rewarded that viewpoint, with the shares up almost 50% from the time of my last article.
I'm not as bullish on Carpenter now, though. I do believe that the comments coming from major engine suppliers like General Electric (NYSE:GE) and United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) bode well for deliveries over the next three to five years, but I'm still concerned that overall aircraft deliveries will disappoint (especially in widebodies) and that recoveries in markets like energy will be slower than the bulls hope.
Carpenter does have a lot of self-improvement potential (which could enhance its appeal as a takeout candidate) going into an upturn, but I worry that there is too much capacity in specialty alloys for the company to get back to double-digit ROICs. With that, I suppose there could still be some trading appeal here, but my fundamental view is less bullish.
Click here for me:
Carpenter Technology Waiting For Orders To Drive Utilization