Sunday, March 5, 2017

Rolls Royce Looking To New Civil Aerospace Deliveries To Lift Cash Flow

Commercial aviation engine suppliers make up a relatively small world, as there are really only a half-dozen companies in North America and Europe that offer competitive solutions, and most of those don't compete across the board. Rolls Royce (OTCPK:RYCEY) is a name that is probably best known for a business it's not even in (the luxury car business is owned by BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY)), but this is the third-largest aircraft engine maker and a significant player in the markets for widebody and business/regional engines.

This is an interesting time for Rolls Royce, as the company is about to see new widebody programs ramp up (which isn't actually that good for margins), older programs wind down (which is bad for margins), and likely not much progress in non-aviation areas like marine. What's more, there are well-publicized challenges with widebody aircraft these days, as many operators are turning to more efficient, more capable next-gen narrowbody planes instead.

Although the next couple of years are likely to remain challenging, and an accounting change will hammer reported earnings (but not cash flow), I believe there's an argument to be made that Rolls Royce shares are priced to generate double-digit total returns from here.

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Rolls Royce Looking To New Civil Aerospace Deliveries To Lift Cash Flow

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