Astellas Worth A Look On Revenue Re-Acceleration Potential

 

The last few years have been challenging for Astellas (OTCPK:ALPMY) (4503.T), as this large Japanese pharmaceutical company has struggled to restructure an historically inefficient R&D organization and cope with the loss of patent exclusivity on multiple compounds. Assuming Astellas hits my revenue target for this current fiscal year (there’s one quarter left to report), the company will have generated only 1% revenue growth over the last seven years and none over the last six, though profitability has certainly improved (FCF up 9% annualized).

Relative to my last article, Astellas shares have certainly underperformed the S&P 500, but they have largely kept pace with the large drug sector.

What I think makes Astellas interesting today is the potential for meaningful revenue acceleration over the next three to five years, on the order of 6% to 7%, driven by expanded indications for Xtandi and contributions from multiple newer compounds. Much of this growth will be gated by successful clinical trials/FDA approvals, so by no means is it risk-free, but the opportunity here looks interesting today.

 

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Astellas Worth A Look On Revenue Re-Acceleration Potential

The Motley Fool: Can Allergan's Growth Continue?

In the world of Big Pharma, growth is a precious commodity these days. Allergan (NYSE: AGN  ) is a noteworthy exception, though, as the company continues to see strong demand for cornerstone products like Botox an Restasis, as well as its facial aesthetics line. Allergan's pipeline is somewhat more limited than an investor might normally prefer, but the company has been active in pursuing follow-on indications for existing drugs and has had a higher than normal "hit" rate for its pipeline. Though there are frustratingly few true bargains in the pharma space today, Allergan continues to look at least as though it will remain a solid holding.

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Can Allergan's Growth Continue?

The Motley Fool: AstraZeneca plc (ADR) Hopes Farxiga Can Go Far

Now the hard work really begins.

AstraZeneca's (NYSE: AZN  ) SGLT-2 inhibitor dapaglifozin has had a difficult path to market, but the company finally got the FDA's go-ahead to market the drug on Wednesday. While SGLT-2 inhibitors are a promising new class of drug, it remains to be seen whether AstraZeneca's Farxiga (it's U.S. brand name) can become a blockbuster in the face of competition from Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ  ) first-to-market Invokana and follow-on drugs from Lilly (NYSE: LLY  ) and Astellas.

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AstraZeneca plc (ADR) Hopes Farxiga Can Go Far

Seeking Alpha: Looking At AVEO With Fresh Eyes

It's been a horrible year for AVEO Pharmaceuticals (AVEO), and arguably a lot of the damage has been self-inflicted. Others have written at length about the FDA's decision to reject the company's application for tivozanib in renal cell carcinoma(RCC), as well as the deficiencies in the design of the pivotal trial, the company's apparent tone-deafness towards the FDA, and the lack of disclosure to shareholders regarding interactions with the agency.

I'm not here to rehash all of that. For better or worse, tivozanib is effectively dead in RCC for the time being. What I am interested in doing, though, is trying to approach the company with as close to a clean slate and fresh eyes as I can. After all, tivozanib is still in two other Phase II studies and AVEO could certainly follow in the tracks of other biotechs who faced crushing rejections only to come back later with approvable drugs or indications.

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Looking At AVEO With Fresh Eyes