Seeking Alpha: Chart Industries No Longer Left For Dead

Back in January, I thought investors had the sort of opportunity I love to find in the market - the chance to buy a stock that had been pounded because a major growth driver seemed to be evaporating, and pounded to a point where the less exciting, but still profitable, base business more than justified the share price. Such was the case with Chart Industries (NASDAQ:GTLS) back in January, and the shares have come back nicely since then, even though the LNG growth story is still in trouble.

I continue to believe that Chart Industries is a good company in the industrial gas/energy space. With the rebound in the shares, though, I think the dramatic undervaluation has been mopped up and investors now have to have more conviction and optimism about the future of the LNG business to drive a substantially higher fair value. I do believe that the company stands to generate hundreds of millions of dollars from LNG export/import facilities in the coming years, but the move toward a more significant LNG-based transportation chain in the U.S. is farther off and less certain in my view. Chart still looks like an okay stock in my view, but there will be a lot of bumps in the road over the next couple of years, and I think investors should typically shoot for better than "okay".

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Chart Industries No Longer Left For Dead

Seeking Alpha: After Flaring Off The Excess Enthusiasm, Chart Industries Looks More Interesting

Around nine months ago investors still had to go to pretty great lengths to come up with a growth scenario that made Chart Industries' (NASDAQ:GTLS) valuation look reasonable. With Chart Industries and other "natural gas economy" stocks like Westport Innovations (NASDAQ:WPRT) and Quantum Fuel Systems (NASDAQ:QTWW) having gotten hammered down in the ensuing months, though, it's worth taking another look at some of the better names leveraged to growth in LNG.

To be sure, I don't think my model for Chart Industries is exactly conservative, as I'm still looking for annualized revenue growth of nearly 7% and margin leverage based on a North American LNG build-out that may never materialize. That said, those numbers support a fair value above $45 and an EV/EBITDA multiple of less than 7x for a company that could grow at a 10% clip for the next decade seems like an interesting valuation for an admittedly speculative opportunity.

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After Flaring Off The Excess Enthusiasm, Chart Industries Looks More Interesting

Seeking Alpha: LNG Continues To Fuel The Chart Industries Story

The picks-and-shovels approach to the LNG market that Chart Industries (GTLS) offers has already delivered great results for long-term shareholders. Up almost 70% in the past year and over 400% for the past five years, Chart Industries has shown itself to not only be the real deal in terms of offering leverage to LNG infrastructure growth, but smart about picking and choosing its market opportunities.

Chart is not cheap by any valuation approach I can come up with, but I don't think it will get all that cheap until the outlook for LNG infrastructure growth slows significantly… and I don't expect that to happen any time soon. I'm not going to push the "valuation doesn't matter" angle as I like to practice what I preach, but with the build out of LNG infrastructure in the U.S. and Europe still in early days, it won't surprise me at all if Chart continues to perform quite well.

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LNG Continues To Fuel The Chart Industries Story

Investopedia: Does The Stock Of Chart Industries Already Discount A Rosy Future?

Natural gas has a bright future, both here and abroad, as an energy source in a variety of applications. Not only do countries like the U.S. and China have substantial shale gas reserves, but a host of companies like Westport (Nasdaq:WPRT) and Clean Energy (Nasdaq:CLNE) are developing technologies to exploit them in applications like vehicle fuel.

For natural gas usage to meet its potential, though, the world needs a lot more infrastructure and that's where Chart Industries (Nasdaq:GTLS) comes into the picture. By offering good technology that addresses multiple points in the ecosystem (liquification, storage, distribution, etc.), this company should have many years of impressive revenue growth ahead. The question, though, is just how much of this the stock price already reflects.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Does-The-Stock-Of-Chart-Industries-Already-Discount-A-Rosy-Future-GTLS-WPRT-CLNE-CBI0914.aspx

Investopedia: Lincare Shows That You Can Go Home Again

If I had to guess the sort of healthcare company that would get a premium acquisition offer, Lincare (Nasdaq:LNCR) would be low on my list, as relatively few buyers would want to pay a premium to get into a business that is beset by constant reimbursement pressures. But, as the old saying goes, you only need one buyer to make a deal and Lincare found that one.

In a deal that reverses a spin-out from nearly 25 years ago, German industrial gases company Linde will be acquiring Lincare for $4.6 billion in total considerations. That works out to $41.50 per share for Lincare's shareholders; a 22% premium to Friday's closing price (which had been moving up on takeover rumors) and a whopping 67% premium to the stock's three-month average price.

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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Lincare-Shows-That-You-Can-Go-Home-Again-LNCR-APD-PX-AMED0704.aspx

Seeking Alpha: Chart Industries Running Hot And Cold

It takes time to reorganize a country's energy infrastructure, let alone the world's, but there are nevertheless real signs of progress when it comes to natural gas. While the LNG story is still dominated by large energy companies looking to monetize huge natural gas fields in remote corners of the world, there has been progress towards the use of LNG in place of gasoline or oil in many applications around the world.

As that process continues, the potential for Chart Industries (GTLS) should only improve. That said, while there is a pretty hot future in keeping gas very cold, the company's current financial performance and valuation leave something to be desired.

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Chart Industries Running Hot And Cold

Praxair's Success Not Just Hot Air

I have been somewhat obsessed with trying to figure out the real tenor of the economy during this earnings season. Specialty chemical companies like Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) have been strong, coal companies like Peabody (NYSE:BTU) have been reasonably positive and industrials like Dover (NYSE:DOV) have had pretty solid guidance. In fact, the only major notes of caution have been from steel companies like Nucor (NYSE:NUE). 

Industrial gas provider Praxair (NYSE:PX) goes solidly in the camp of "good news for the economic recovery". Although industrial gas companies sign customers to long-term contracts and do not tend to be quite as cyclical as you might immediately think, the volume growth that this company is seeing is nevertheless a pretty strong testament to growing economic activity around the world. 


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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2010/Praxairs-Success-Not-Just-Hot-Air-PX-ALB-BTU-DOV-NUE-ARG-APD0730.aspx