Seeking Alpha: Should Investors Press Their Luck With Fortuna Silver?

Eight months ago I thought Fortuna Silver (NYSE:FSM) was one of the best plays on silver out there in the market, and the performance of the shares has backed up on that idea. Even with a recent pullback of more than 10%, these shares are up almost 90% from late December of 2013 and the comparisons with the likes of Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW), Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS), First Majestic (NYSE:AG), and Fresnillo (OTCPK:FNLPF) aren't even all that close.

So what now? I do like the significant improvements that the company has made in reducing costs - where I thought 20% reductions in cash operating costs were possible, management has delivered 30%. Better still, the company's drilling program at Trinidad North continues to suggest significant reserve expansion and mining potential here. I openly acknowledge that I underestimated management's cost-cutting abilities and may be doing so again, but I think valuation is less compelling today. If you believe that mining stocks can still support historical NAV premiums of 1.5x or more, the shares still offer upside (and on EV/EBITDA as well), but I take a more conservative approach and don't see nearly as much value remaining in these shares today.

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Should Investors Press Their Luck With Fortuna Silver?

Seeking Alpha: Solid Costs And Expansion Potential For Fortuna Silver

The closest thing to a safe hiding place that investors in precious metal miners can find today is a company with a clean balance sheet and a competitive cost structure. Fortuna Silver (FSM) seems to fit the bill, as the company's cash production costs are on the correct side of industry-wide averages and the company has a net cash position with no particularly demanding capital requirements in the near term.

Even though Fortuna Silver has a better cost position than Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Coeur Mining (CDE), the all-in sustaining cost of more than $20/oz is a little higher than the current spot price of silver. What that suggests to me is that cash flow is likely to get tight if silver prices don't recover, as I am not convinced that the company has the scope to significantly curtail costs from here. I do believe that the stock is trading at an attractive price relative to its NAV, but investors should note that Fortuna's current price would seem to be forecasting silver prices at least 10% lower than today's level.

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Solid Costs And Expansion Potential For Fortuna Silver

Seeking Alpha: Improving Costs, Clean Balance Sheet Not Sparing Pan American Silver

If you mine anything, 2013 was probably a painful year and if you mine precious metals, it was a horror show. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is down more than 50% over the past year, the Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) is down more than 60%, and the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) is down about as much as the GDX (52%). It's not hard to figure out why, as falling prices, rising costs, and debt-laden balance sheets have all contributed to a mass exodus from the space.

In the rush to the door, I think Pan American Silver (PAAS) may have been unfairly trampled. It is absolutely true that PAAS is going to be hard-pressed to attract investor interest if silver prices keep falling, but there is at least the downside protection of an improving cost structure, lower capex, and a clean balance sheet. Trading just under its net asset value, I believe Pan American may be a good place to look for those investors who still want to own a silver miner.

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Improving Costs, Clean Balance Sheet Not Sparing Pan American Silver

2010 - The Year Silver Caught Up

Gold has a special hold on the minds of some investors; so much so that sometimes other precious metals are left behind in the rush to buy the yellow metal. While silver spent much of the recession rally lagging gold, 2010 was a little different and silver dramatically outperformed gold. Just how well has silver done? Within Morningstar's industry lists, only one industry has done better than silver, and the one-year appreciation is better than 90%. 

ETF Bullion
As has been true in gold, investors have flocked to the convenience of a bullion-supported ETF. The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) now boasts over $10 billion in assets and holds 350 million ounces of silver in trust - enough to meet the industrial demands of the world for about a year. As it tracks the price of silver (minus a management fee and some ephemeral premium/discount from day to day trading), it is no surprise to see this ETF up more than 60% for 2010, trouncing the better-than 25% performance of SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) as of late December. (For related reading, check out Commodities: Silver.)

Market Digs the Miners
As miners are clearly leveraged to the underlying prices of the metals they mine, it is no great surprise to see that the miners did even better than the metal in 2009. Not only is this relatively typical within the industry (again, since miners are leveraged to the metal), but it may be even more so in silver as there are relatively few investable silver companies listed on U.S. exchanges. Even at the end of 2010, a phenomenally strong year for the sector, there are just eight stocks labeled as silver miners with market capitalizations in excess of $250 million.

Among the larger players, Silvercorp (NYSE:SVM), MAG Silver (NYSE:MVG) and Endeavor Silver (NYSE:EXK) led the charge. Even the worst-performing stock in the group, Silver Standard (Nasdaq:SSRI) handily beat the market for the year.


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