Seeking Alpha: TIBCO Beats, But There's A Lot Left To Prove

Investors waiting for the "all clear" on TIBCO (TIBX) continue to get mixed messages. The company certainly had one of the strongest quarters for infrastructure and billings in many quarters, but the easy year-ago comp mutes some of the enthusiasm, particularly when it is clear that the key analytics business Spotfire continues to decelerate. A recent change in executive incentives could mark a shift toward a more margin-centric approach, but it remains to be seen whether growth in areas like analytics, ESB, and cloud can offset what looks like a slowing core business.

Talking about value is tricky in tech, as investors so often reward growth irrespective of value. Provided that TIBCO can improve margins, a high single-digit FCF growth rate seems plausible and both a DCF and EV/rev approach suggest these shares remain undervalued.

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TIBCO Beats, But There's A Lot Left To Prove

Seeking Alpha: TIBCO's Return To License Growth Frustratingly Inconsistent

Wanting to like a stock can be dangerous, as TIBCO (TIBX) is showing once again. TIBCO is a solid player in business optimization and process management, offering companies platforms to integrate and analyze operational data, but the company has been having a difficult time with sales execution and the willingness of larger rivals to compete on price. While the company had done a good job of rallying the troops and getting investors and analysts to buy into a growth recovery story, the company's fourth quarter results and first quarter guidance are a setback.

For better or worse, what the stock needs is consistent license revenue growth in the high single digits or low double digits (growth above the underlying market); margins and cash flow may matter more in the long run, but software stocks trade on revenue growth in the short term. I am optimistic about the company's ability to improve sales execution and shift customer perceptions toward a view that it is a strategic infrastructure, optimization, and management technology company, but the path has been frustratingly inconsistent. I believe these shares are undervalued to a meaningful extent, but I won't pretend that valuation is more important than growth in 2014.

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TIBCO's Return To License Growth Frustratingly Inconsistent

Investopedia: SAP Pays Up And Accelerates Its SaaS Development

One way or another, growth costs money. Large software companies, like Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) and International Business Machine (NYSE: IBM), spend piles of money on internal software development, but the reality is that the big boys still often have to bring out their wallets to compliment or compensate their own efforts. To that end, SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) is paying quite a lot for human resource software-as-a-service (SaaS) leader, SuccessFactors (NYSE: SFSF), but it would seem the alternative was even less appealing. (To know more about technology industry, read: A Primer On Investing In The Tech Industry. )


The Deal 
SAP announced over the weekend that it was acquiring SuccessFactors in an all-cash deal worth about $3.4 billion. SAP will pay SuccessFactors shareholders $40 a share, a 52% premium to the Dec. 2, 2011, close and near to the all-time high for the stock. SAP will initially pay for this deal with cash on hand and a loan.


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http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/SAP-Pays-Up-And-Accelerates-Its-SaaS-Development-SAP-MSFT-ORCL-IBM-SFSF-TLEO-N-KNXA1205.aspx