The Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK)
story continues to be an exercise in frustration. While management has
long argued that its laser annealing technology was the superior option
for sub-20nm chip fabs, the reality is that fabs like Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) and Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) just aren't all that dismayed by the issues with the flash annealing tools offered by rivals like Screen Holdings (OTC:DINRY) and Mattson (NASDAQ:MTSN).
With that, the argument that LSA tools would replicate their 50%-plus
share of 28nm manufacturing at 14nm/16nm has evaporated, and the real
market share has been closer to the 20% seen at the 45nm node.
Looking
at this a different way, what was supposed to be a year of momentum in
LSA tool orders and roughly $200 million in revenue (the sell-side
expectation in December of 2014) has instead turned into minimal order
activity (none in the third quarter) and probably something closer to
$150 million to $160 million in 2015 revenue.
What to do with these shares now? The shares are actually up about 10% from my last update
and now arguably (very arguably, in my opinion) have a new value metric
established by the merger agreement that Mattson signed with Beijing E-Town Dragon Semiconductor.
What's more, I do think there is legitimate momentum in the advanced
packaging (AP) business and good prospects in metrology. On the other
hand, I just don't have the confidence in management that I once did,
and I think Ultratech is firmly in the "show me" penalty box today.
Read more here:
Ultratech's Convoluted And Uncertain Path
Showing posts with label Screen Holdings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Screen Holdings. Show all posts
Sunday, December 13, 2015
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Seeking Alpha: With Minimal Guidance, Ultratech Left Groping In The Dark
The last year hasn't been particularly kind to most semiconductor equipment companies, but Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK)
has fared among the worst as the company has come up far short of the
expectations that the company's laser spike annealing tools would play a
significant role in the migration to 14nm/16nm FinFET chips at major
manufacturers like TSMC (NYSE:TSM), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and Samsung.
While emerging opportunities in advanced packaging, inspection, and
atomic layer deposition take away a little bit of the sting, it hasn't
been nearly enough to maintain the prior outlook.
Management hasn't been much help, as the guidance on the last couple of calls really hasn't shed much light on the outlook for the company's tools. I do not believe that management is misleading or withholding information from investors, but the lack of visibility in the market is a definite risk factor. So too is the risk that the company has lost enough share to companies like Screen Holdings (OTC:DINRY) and Mattson (NASDAQ:MTSN) that it threatens the basic thesis that Ultratech's tools offer much-needed advantages in performance.
There is a chance that Ultratech can support a higher valuation largely on the basis of its opportunities in advanced packaging, and the company's cash-rich balance sheet largely takes survivability off the table as an issue. Unfortunately, the lack of traction and visibility in thermal processing makes this more and more of a gamble/speculation than a real investment.
Continue here:
With Minimal Guidance, Ultratech Left Groping In The Dark
Management hasn't been much help, as the guidance on the last couple of calls really hasn't shed much light on the outlook for the company's tools. I do not believe that management is misleading or withholding information from investors, but the lack of visibility in the market is a definite risk factor. So too is the risk that the company has lost enough share to companies like Screen Holdings (OTC:DINRY) and Mattson (NASDAQ:MTSN) that it threatens the basic thesis that Ultratech's tools offer much-needed advantages in performance.
There is a chance that Ultratech can support a higher valuation largely on the basis of its opportunities in advanced packaging, and the company's cash-rich balance sheet largely takes survivability off the table as an issue. Unfortunately, the lack of traction and visibility in thermal processing makes this more and more of a gamble/speculation than a real investment.
Continue here:
With Minimal Guidance, Ultratech Left Groping In The Dark
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Seeking Alpha: Ultratech Surprises To The Good, But Not Where Investors Want To See It
Investors can be fickle, and with that I have to wonder whether Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK)
will hold on to the positive boost in sentiment that the company gained
by reporting better earnings for the first quarter. Guidance for the
second quarter was not as strong as could have been hoped, and there has
been no easing of concerns regarding the company's ability to play a
leading role in rapid thermal processing for sub-20nm chips and grab
share from Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), Mattson (NASDAQ:MTSN), and/or Screen Holdings (OTC:DINRY).
Ultratech shares are still not pricing in any particularly significant ramp in sales or profits. That is in spite of real progress in diversifying the company's portfolio and recent growth in the advanced packaging opportunity. Although I cannot really model a scenario where Ultratech is shut out of the sub-20nm rapid thermal processing market and really thrives, progress with advanced packaging does at least provide some backstop. I continue to believe that Ultratech shares can generate double-digit returns from here, but this is a small position for me and I freely acknowledge that this remains much more of an "if" story than a "when".
Read the full article here:
Ultratech Surprises To The Good, But Not Where Investors Want To See It
Ultratech shares are still not pricing in any particularly significant ramp in sales or profits. That is in spite of real progress in diversifying the company's portfolio and recent growth in the advanced packaging opportunity. Although I cannot really model a scenario where Ultratech is shut out of the sub-20nm rapid thermal processing market and really thrives, progress with advanced packaging does at least provide some backstop. I continue to believe that Ultratech shares can generate double-digit returns from here, but this is a small position for me and I freely acknowledge that this remains much more of an "if" story than a "when".
Read the full article here:
Ultratech Surprises To The Good, But Not Where Investors Want To See It
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Seeking Alpha: The Wait Drags On With Ultratech
If FinFET-related annealing orders eventually do appear in 2015 and
the 3D advanced packaging opportunity develops as management hopes, Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK)
will likely look like a study on the rewards of patience. If the trends
seen throughout 2014 continue, it's going to be an experience in death
by hundreds of papercuts.
Ultratech still isn't seeing the orders for its LSA systems that it needs to generate attractive margin leverage and get Wall Street enthusiastic about the shares. 2015 is shaping up as a make-or-break year, but then 2014 was supposed to be that way and leading chip producers like Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and Samsung delayed orders in response to FinFET yield issues. While a strong LSA cycle and growing interest in the company's advanced packaging and metrology products could eventually support a much higher share price, the high teens to low $20's is probably as good as it gets until/unless those orders start to show up in the company's books.
Continue reading here:
The Wait Drags On With Ultratech
Ultratech still isn't seeing the orders for its LSA systems that it needs to generate attractive margin leverage and get Wall Street enthusiastic about the shares. 2015 is shaping up as a make-or-break year, but then 2014 was supposed to be that way and leading chip producers like Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and Samsung delayed orders in response to FinFET yield issues. While a strong LSA cycle and growing interest in the company's advanced packaging and metrology products could eventually support a much higher share price, the high teens to low $20's is probably as good as it gets until/unless those orders start to show up in the company's books.
Continue reading here:
The Wait Drags On With Ultratech
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Seeking Alpha: Ultratech's Order Outlook Is Murky At Best
The past year was a miserable one for Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK)
shareholders. The recurrent theme of the year was that weak 14nm/16nm
yields weighed on orders for new LSA tools, leading to multiples "shifts
to the right" in order and revenue expectations. Expectations for 2014
revenue fell from the range of $180 million to $200 million in late 2013
to $147 million as of this writing and now there is concern as to
whether Ultratech has lost share to Screen Holdings (OTC:DINRY) and Mattson (NASDAQ:MTSN) and whether 10nm might sap the 14nm/16nm cycle altogether.
This certainly showed up in the stock's performance. Ultratech fell 37% last year, while Mattson rose more than 19% and Screen rose almost 13% (Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), which also sells thermal processing equipment rose more than 36%). It's not hopeless at Ultratech, and the company does have growth opportunities in advanced packaging, metrology, and atomic layer deposition, but 2015 is likely to be a long year for shareholders without some visibility and encouragement in LSA orders.
Follow this link for more:
Ultratech's Order Outlook Is Murky At Best
This certainly showed up in the stock's performance. Ultratech fell 37% last year, while Mattson rose more than 19% and Screen rose almost 13% (Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), which also sells thermal processing equipment rose more than 36%). It's not hopeless at Ultratech, and the company does have growth opportunities in advanced packaging, metrology, and atomic layer deposition, but 2015 is likely to be a long year for shareholders without some visibility and encouragement in LSA orders.
Follow this link for more:
Ultratech's Order Outlook Is Murky At Best
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