Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Seeking Alpha: Ultratech's Order Outlook Is Murky At Best

The past year was a miserable one for Ultratech (NASDAQ:UTEK) shareholders. The recurrent theme of the year was that weak 14nm/16nm yields weighed on orders for new LSA tools, leading to multiples "shifts to the right" in order and revenue expectations. Expectations for 2014 revenue fell from the range of $180 million to $200 million in late 2013 to $147 million as of this writing and now there is concern as to whether Ultratech has lost share to Screen Holdings (OTC:DINRY) and Mattson (NASDAQ:MTSN) and whether 10nm might sap the 14nm/16nm cycle altogether.

This certainly showed up in the stock's performance. Ultratech fell 37% last year, while Mattson rose more than 19% and Screen rose almost 13% (Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), which also sells thermal processing equipment rose more than 36%). It's not hopeless at Ultratech, and the company does have growth opportunities in advanced packaging, metrology, and atomic layer deposition, but 2015 is likely to be a long year for shareholders without some visibility and encouragement in LSA orders.

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Ultratech's Order Outlook Is Murky At Best

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