Turkcell Still Bedeviled By Uncertainty

Turkey's largest mobile services provider, Turkcell (NYSE:TKC), continues to find itself mired in uncertainties that have weighed heavily on the shares. From questions about market share and competitiveness with Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD) and Turk Telekom's (OTC:TRKNY) AVEA, to management's capital allocation priorities, to the seemingly endless squabbles between the largest owners, this is a consummate case of "it's always something".

While Turkcell's shares do look undervalued, and it seems as though the ownership spat may be nearing an end, I'm not sure the discount to fair value is so large as to be worth the trouble. Turkcell has its work cut out moving its subscriber base on to more lucrative post-paid contracts and higher-end phones, and I'm more concerned about the value to be gained from the company's expansion plans.

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Turkcell Still Bedeviled By Uncertainty

Seeking Alpha: Turkcell Looking Long Term, Market Thinking Short Term

As a reader commented on a prior Turkcell (NYSE:TKC) piece, Turkey's leading mobile operator sits at the intersection of two unpopular avenues today - mobile communications and Turkey. Investors have grown impatient with the growth prospects of mobile carriers as penetration rates grow, revenue and earnings growth slows, and the capex bills grow to keep with the evolution of technology. On the Turkey side, there are no shortage of problems and concerns ranging from so-so economic growth (4% GDP in the third quarter), a high-profile spat with Russia that cost a pilot his life, and ongoing military conflict involving Daesh in Syria and the PKK in Turkey.

Turkcell's ADRs have lost about 20% of their value since early May of this year, with further adverse moves in the Turkish lira magnifying a double-digit decline in the home TCELL.IS shares. For the little to no good it does to make investors feel a little better, Vodafone's (NASDAQ:VOD) ADRs have declined about 10% and Turk Telecom's (OTC:TRKNF) local shares have fallen more than 25% in Turkey.

I realize that fighting the tape is an invitation to short-term pain, but I think the market is too worried about the near term at Turkcell and not willing to consider the long-term opportunities. Turkcell continues to gather higher value post-paid subscribers and has been generating good growth from its mobile data, and the company's substantial investments in spectrum will have the company positioned for mobile data leadership for a decade. Turkcell's ADRs definitely need a more favorable outlook/sentiment for Turkey as a whole, but with a fair value close to $12, I think these shares are worth a look from patient investors today.

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Turkcell Looking Long Term, Market Thinking Short Term

Seeking Alpha: Turkcell Executing On The Ground, But Litigation Still A Sizable Hurdle

The spat between three of Turkcell's (TKC) major shareholders was ridiculous one and a half years ago and it hasn't gotten any better since then. With a recent U.K. ruling reinstating TeliaSonera's (OTCPK:TLSNY) nearly $1 billion claim against Cukurova and the $1.6 billion payment from Cukurova to Alfa/Altimo still pending, it seems unlikely that tomorrow's annual meeting will go forward, meaning that the wait for clarity on dividends and the shareholder structure drags on.

If there's a bright side to the story it is that Turkcell is operating relatively well in its core Turkish mobile operations. Fierce competition with Vodafone (VOD) and Avea is still very much a threat, but EBITDA growth has been getting better and Turkcell should be a major beneficiary of more rational competition going forward. The dispute between Turkcell's major shareholders is definitely an ongoing risk factor, but Turkcell has been building up quite a cash pile and resolution of the dispute should lift a meaningful non-operating cloud from the shares before 2014 is over.

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Turkcell Executing On The Ground, But Litigation Still A Sizable Hurdle

Investopedia: Turkcell Is Undervalued, But Also A Complete Mess

It's typically a given that undervalued stocks come with a “but”. In other words, there's usually a reason that a stock is trading below fair value and it's up to investors to decide if the prevailing sentiment is overlooking the longer-term opportunity. In the case of Turkcell (NYSE:TKC), that's a very difficult question to answer. On one hand, the company's improving post-paid subscriber base and generally more rational competition bode well for profits. On the other hand, Turkey is going through a very dangerous time and the the squabbling between Turkcell's major shareholders have prevented the company from paying a dividend for multiple years now.

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http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/062513/turkcell-undervalued-also-complete-mess-tkc-tur-vod-tlsny-vz-t.aspx

Seeking Alpha: Is Turkcell's Upcoming Transformation Enough Reason To Hold The Shares?

Investors' options for investing outside the United States have steadily gotten better over the past decade, and it's no longer that difficult to find online brokers who will handle trades for Canadian, Japanese, or Western European markets. It's still not easy to invest in Turkey, though, and that leaves investors with a rather limited menu of options, including the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) and Turkey's leading mobile network service provider, Turkcell (TKC).

I am generally not in favor of substituting a company as a country investment, even when an argument can be made that the country's fortunes and the company's success are tied relatively closely together. So setting aside the scarcity of Turkish investment options, is Turkcell still a worthwhile holding for aggressive investors?

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Is Turkcell's Upcoming Transformation Enough Reason To Hold The Shares?

Seeking Alpha: Has The Tide Finally Turned For Turkcell

The stock market performance of Turkey's largest mobile phone operator (and arguably the best-known Turkish company to U.S. investors) Turkcell (TKC) has never been what anybody would call stable, but the last four years have been rough indeed. Although Turkcell looks promisingly cheap by many metrics, investors may not find as much value here as they hope.

Has The Bleeding Stopped?
The biggest problem for Turkcell has been competition; regulators in Turkey have wanted more competition in mobile phone services and have imposed mobile termination rate and interconnect fee cuts as a means of achieving that. Something similar has happened to America Movil (AMX) recently and Turkcell doesn't have the luxury of strong growth outside of Turkey to offset the damage. As if that weren't enough, rivals Vodafone (VOD) and Avea (mostly owned by Turk Telecom) have sought to build share by aggressive under-cutting Turkcell on pricing.

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Has The Tide Finally Turned For Turkcell?

Agile Agilent

Agilent (NYSE:A) has always been something of an odd one out. Although the company boasts a market capitalization of approximately $10 billion, Agilent is relatively under-followed and often overlooked. Some of that is because of the unusual collection of businesses. The company has historically derived about half of its revenue from electronic test and measurement equipment and the other half from biological and chemical analysis equipment, and few analysts have expertise in both of those markets. 

What may be Wall Street's pain can be a motivated investor's gain. Because Agilent does not get the close scrutiny of other names, and because there is not a small army of analysts flogging the stock to institutional clients, investors can occasionally pick these shares up on the cheap.

To read the complete piece, please go to:
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2010/Agile-Agilent-A-DHR-JDSU-LIFE-TMO-WAT-CHL0818.aspx