Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Seeking Alpha: Turkcell Looking Long Term, Market Thinking Short Term

As a reader commented on a prior Turkcell (NYSE:TKC) piece, Turkey's leading mobile operator sits at the intersection of two unpopular avenues today - mobile communications and Turkey. Investors have grown impatient with the growth prospects of mobile carriers as penetration rates grow, revenue and earnings growth slows, and the capex bills grow to keep with the evolution of technology. On the Turkey side, there are no shortage of problems and concerns ranging from so-so economic growth (4% GDP in the third quarter), a high-profile spat with Russia that cost a pilot his life, and ongoing military conflict involving Daesh in Syria and the PKK in Turkey.

Turkcell's ADRs have lost about 20% of their value since early May of this year, with further adverse moves in the Turkish lira magnifying a double-digit decline in the home TCELL.IS shares. For the little to no good it does to make investors feel a little better, Vodafone's (NASDAQ:VOD) ADRs have declined about 10% and Turk Telecom's (OTC:TRKNF) local shares have fallen more than 25% in Turkey.

I realize that fighting the tape is an invitation to short-term pain, but I think the market is too worried about the near term at Turkcell and not willing to consider the long-term opportunities. Turkcell continues to gather higher value post-paid subscribers and has been generating good growth from its mobile data, and the company's substantial investments in spectrum will have the company positioned for mobile data leadership for a decade. Turkcell's ADRs definitely need a more favorable outlook/sentiment for Turkey as a whole, but with a fair value close to $12, I think these shares are worth a look from patient investors today.

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Turkcell Looking Long Term, Market Thinking Short Term

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