Seeking Alpha: IPG Photonics Still On Top Of A Rising Mountain

I've made no secret of the fact that I like and admire IPG Photonics (NASDAQ:IPGP), and I can't say that the shares haven't rewarded that enthusiasm. Since my first piece for Seeking Alpha on the company, the shares are up more than 60%, trouncing other laser companies like Rofin-Sinar (NASDAQ:RSTI), Coherent (NASDAQ:COHR), and Newport (NASDAQ:NEWP), and beating the NASDAQ by a relatively comfortable margin as well.

When I last wrote about the company, the business was running quite smoothly, but I was concerned about the expectations baked into the valuation. The shares have been more or less flat since then on a "net" basis, but I did suggest that investors could look for dips into the $80s as buying opportunities and investors got two such chances (including a move into the $70s).

Now what? I still like this business, and I think IPG Photonics is poised for a decade of revenue growth that averages out to around 9% to 10% a year coupled with excellent free cash flow margins. I do have some worries about the potential of "peak margin", as well as the possibility that IPG Photonics' growth will make it more susceptible to the vagaries of the machine tool cycles, but no stock comes without risks. The shares do look a little undervalued now, but I'd be tempted to try another "buy the dip" move given the macro uncertainties.

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IPG Photonics Still On Top Of A Rising Mountain

Seeking Alpha: Rofin-Sinar Making Progress, But Not Particularly Quickly Or Dramatically

I suppose you could approach Rofin-Sinar Technologies' (NASDAQ:RSTI) performance over the last year as something of a Rorschach test. A bear can point to the company's ongoing lackluster sales performance, bottoming margins, and lack of progress in really challenging IPG Photonics (NASDAQ:IPGP) in the growing fiber laser market. A bull could argue that the company has stabilized its revenue situation (and that currency moves make the comps worse than they really are), put in a bottom with margins, and can look to new product introductions in fiber and ultrafast lasers to help drive better results in the coming quarters.

For my part, my feelings haven't changed all that much since I last wrote on the shares. I do think that the market is still undervaluing the company's long-term growth prospects, but I don't think the undervaluation is all that great. I'm also concerned that it has taken this long for Rofin-Sinar to really get moving in fiber lasers and that the company is stuck as a legacy producer in an industry with a lot of R&D/product feature competition on the high end and growing price competition on the low end.

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Rofin-Sinar Making Progress, But Not Particularly Quickly Or Dramatically

Seeking Alpha: IPG Photonics Continuing To Expand Its Fiber Laser Opportunity

In the six months since I wrote on IPG Photonics (IPGP) as a Top Idea ("IPG Photonics Looking To Innovation And Integration") the shares have registered a solid 26% gain. In that time, whatever changes have come have largely been to IPG Photonics' credit - the company maintains a significant lead over the likes of Rofin-Sinar (RSTI) and the company's aggressive product development efforts continue to expand the company's addressable market and long-term revenue potential.

I believe IPG Photonics remains a quality name in this space, but the shares are not as obviously cheap as they once were. I still expect long-term revenue growth in the neighborhood of 12% and I am still willing to project long-term FCF margins in the low 20%'s. There is upside to those numbers if the company's addressable markets (and/or share within them) expand even faster, but these shares look more like a "bullish hold" than a strong buy today.

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IPG Photonics Continuing To Expand Its Fiber Laser Opportunity

Seeking Alpha: Rofin-Sinar Looking To A Cyclical Recovery And Fiber Share Gains

About a month and a half ago, I wrote that IPG Photonics (IPGP) was a good name to know in lasers for its growth potential tied to the expansion of the fiber laser market (where it has at least two-thirds market share). Circling back, it's also worth exploring the potential of the 800lb gorilla in the overall industrial laser space - Rofin-Sinar Technologies (RSTI).

Rofin-Sinar is the leading company in market share terms in a market that I'd characterize as "cyclical growth" - there are certainly ups and downs from year to year, but the overall laser market continues to outgrow overall industrial spending on a multi-year basis. With a strong IP position and industry reputation, not to mention a wide array of products, Rofin-Sinar can benefit from the ongoing expansion of industrial automation and the continuing penetration of lasers into new cutting, welding, and marking applications.

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Rofin-Sinar Looking To A Cyclical Recovery And Fiber Share Gains

Seeking Alpha: Is This A Chance To Pick Up II-VI For The Rebound?

Sometimes one of the best things an investor can do is pick up shares of a quality company on a temporary problem in the industry. For instance, investors who bought Lincoln Electric (LECO) below $40 are probably pretty happy that they did so. While the shares of laser optics and components maker II-VI (IIVI) have been volatile, they historically haven't stayed very cheap for very long. The question for investors now, though, is whether this is another buying opportunity or whether II-VI's addressable markets have changed in fundamental ways that will make this a disappointing stock from now on.

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Is This A Chance To Pick Up II-VI For The Rebound?