It has been a while since I've written on Rexnord (NYSE:RXN), largely because I thought the valuation wasn't all that interesting back in mid-2013. The shares are up about 10% since then, which is well below the return of the S&P 500, but in line with rival Regal Beloit (NYSE:RBC) and better than ABB (NYSE:ABB). Since the time of that last article, Rexnord has borne the brunt of a rough stretch in its industrial and resource-centric end-markets, and the company's margins have gotten worse, bringing the company down to mid-pack (or a little worse) in the industrial conglomerate space.
These shares have had a run since the election, but there may still be enough value here to merit a closer look. I really like the company's leverage to healthier end-markets like aerospace and food/beverage, as well as the prospects for improvement in industrial markets, eventual improvement in resource industries, and possibly a renewed focus on water infrastructure spending in North America. I believe management still has to earn the benefit of the doubt with respect to margin improvements, but mid single-digit FCF growth can support a fair value above $21 and a double-digit total expected return.
Rexnord Still A Work In Process