Between Weakening Crypto And A Questionable Deal, Semtech Is On Its Heels

The last few months have not been easy ones for Semtech (NASDAQ:SMTC). A collapse in the value of Helium HNT cryptocurrency (down 95% over the past year) threatens one of the recent sources of momentum in the key LoRa business, while the acquisition of Sierra Wireless (SWIR) looks questionable at best. If that weren't enough, handset volumes are weak, and it looks like PON, data center, and 5G deployments are slowing.

Should the Sierra Wireless deal go forward, I think it will ultimately destroy value for shareholders. That's offset by good long-term trends and opportunities in home broadband and data center, not to mention the longer-term potential of LoRa in the IoT space. The valuation does look too low now, but it's hard for me to recommend a stock where I disagree with management's strategic priorities, and that's the case for me now with Semtech.

 

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Between Weakening Crypto And A Questionable Deal, Semtech Is On Its Heels

Inphi Shares Pricing In Significant Growth In Data Center And Optical

There is a long list of companies in the chip and networking space leveraged to meaningful growth in optical deployments (long-haul and metro) and expanding adoption of higher-speed networking technologies in the data center. Inphi (IPHI) is uncommonly focused on this market; while adoption of 200G and 400G technologies is important to Mellanox (MLNX), Broadcom (AVGO), Finisar (FNSR), MACOM (MTSI), MaxLinear (MXL), and Semtech (SMTC) to varying degrees, Inphi is intensely focused on DSPs, drivers, TIAs, and PHYs used by equipment companies like Cisco (CSCO), Huawei, as well as hyperscale data center customers like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN), and lacks the diversification of rivals like Broadcom.

There have been more than a few bumps in the road for Inphi, as data center deployments haven’t always matched up with bullish projections, and the company has been vulnerable to volatile spending patterns in markets like Chinese optical deployments. What’s more, the shares aren’t exactly cheap, as they already factor in meaningful revenue acceleration over the next three years and significant margin expansion. While Inphi does have strong technology and engineering capabilities, and I believe there is likely an M&A “backstop” to valuation, the markets Inphi participates in are intensely competitive.

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Inphi Shares Pricing In Significant Growth In Data Center And Optical

Semtech Outperforming As The Pieces Come Together

With stronger than expected results in industrial, handsets, data center, and optical, the pieces of Semtech’s (SMTC) growth story have come together a lot quicker than I’d expected. Add in some operating margin leverage and the shares are up about 15% in just the last three months (and up close to 60% over the last year), handily outperforming the SOX index and peers/rivals like Maxim (MXIM), MACOM (MTSI), Inphi (IPHI), and ON Semiconductor (ON) over those time periods.

I didn’t expect this level of outperformance so soon from Semtech, but I can see why the Street is bullish on the prospects for the second half of the year, given the company’s leverage to data center and optical, as well as improving trends for handsets and the ongoing growth opportunity in Long Range Access (or LoRa). I’m not completely comfortable paying more than 5x forward revenue for Semtech today, those margins are improving and this is shaping up as a relatively rare double-digit revenue growth story with M&A support.

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Semtech Outperforming As The Pieces Come Together

Semtech Has Made Progress, But Really Needs LoRa To Take Off

I wasn’t a big fan of seemingly perennial underachiever Semtech (SMTC) back in 2016, and the path since then hasn’t been entirely smooth. The company has done a little better than I’d expected with revenue (beating my circa-2016 expectations by 3% in the last two years), but adjusted free cash flow has been slow to develop, and the company’s key driver, LoRa, has come in well short of management’s targets from a few years ago.

With a strong move in the shares since the last quarter, the stock’s performance has been slightly better than the SOX since my last update, on par with Silicon Labs (SLAB), and below ON Semiconductor (ON) (and well above Maxim (MXIM) and MACOM (MTSI)), but I don’t feel like I’ve missed much with slightly-better-than-sector performance. I’m more encouraged by what I’ve seen recently in the data center and PON businesses, as well as protection, but a lot is riding on increased uptake/usage of LoRa. I’d also note that while I don’t see tremendous value here, the shares have appeal as a takeout candidate.

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Semtech Has Made Progress, But Really Needs LoRa To Take Off

Seeking Alpha: Semtech Needs To Translate Expected Growth Into Shareholder Value

It is hard to argue that Semtech (NASDAQ:SMTC) has historically served its investors particularly well. The 10-year performance of the stock (up about 25%) lags not only the PHLX Semiconductor Index by a meaningful amount (the SOX is up more than 70% over the past decade) and the Nasdaq, but other chip companies like Microsemi (NASDAQ:MSCC), Integrated Device Technology (NASDAQ:IDTI), and Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN), and the five-year comps are even worse.

What's more, the internal value creation isn't impressive at first blush either, with tangible book value per share down almost 75% since 2007 (a CAGR of around negative 13%). Gross margins have been generally healthy over that time and free cash flow has always been positive, but metrics like operating margin and ROIC are less exciting.

I'm not looking to bury Semtech, as I do think the company's technology for enterprise datacenters, wireless communication, sensors, and power management can grow the business. Moreover, there would seem to be opportunities to improve operating leverage through tighter management of SG&A and R&D expenses.

When it's all said and done, though, I believe the semiconductor industry is transitioning away from a valuation philosophy of "as long as you grow, it's all fine" to one more centered around margins and value creation. With that, I believe it is very important for Semtech to not only show solid revenue growth trends, but also that it can translate that growth into long-term shareholder value.

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Semtech Needs To Translate Expected Growth Into Shareholder Value

Seeking Alpha: Microsemi Executing Its Model To Good Effect

Going its own way seems to still be doing some good for Microsemi (NASDAQ:MSCC), as this consistently off-beat semiconductor company appears to be better-positioned than many of its rivals for the near term. With good leverage to relatively healthy commercial aerospace and defense end markets and modest exposure to weaker areas in industrial, PCs, or handsets, Microsemi should have a decent backdrop against which to continue driving long-promised margin improvements.

Although I don't personally value share buyback announcements all that highly, Microsemi has been improving its cash flow generation and continues to trade below what I believe to be its fair value. Given the stock's strong run of relative outperformance, though, the contrarian call may no longer be to prefer Microsemi, but rather to take another look at names like Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO), Atmel (NASDAQ:ATML), and Linear (NASDAQ:LLTC) that haven't done as well.

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Microsemi Executing Its Model To Good Effect

Seeking Alpha: Microsemi Puts Cash To Work In M&A And Buybacks

Back on July 25, I predicted that Microsemi (NASDAQ:MSCC) would likely stay active in the M&A arena and less than two months later the company has delivered - announcing the acquisition of Centellax. Microsemi also took the opportunity to introduce a new share buyback program and to confirm its fourth quarter growth guidance. Although none of these announcements meaningfully change the near-term picture for Microsemi, they're the sort of incremental positive moves that I've come to expect from this company and the Centellax deal could follow in the footsteps of past deals like Actel that add meaningful value down the road.

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Microsemi Puts Cash To Work In M&A And Buybacks

Seeking Alpha: Microsemi Boosts Guidance And Has Some Bold Ambitions

In the "follow the bouncing ball" world of mid-cap semiconductor company Microsemi's (MSCC) quarterly performance, things appear to be heading up again. A beat-and-raise quarter should be constructive for the stock, and management had some fairly bold things to say about the company's future on the conference call.

A lot of things seem to be lining up favorably for Microsemi right now. The new federal budget should ease the logjam in defense spending and 2014 is shaping up to be a better year for commercial aerospace. Key medical device markets like ICDs are showing improving volume, and other chip companies like Linear Technology (LLTC) are sounding more optimistic about conditions in the industrial end markets. With that, I continue to believe that Microsemi is undervalued, though this is very much a "show me" stock with respect to organic growth and margin improvements.

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Microsemi Boosts Guidance And Has Some Bold Ambitions

Seeking Alpha: Microsemi Not Quite To Plan, But Still Improving

Owning Microsemi (MSCC) is an interesting experience. For a company that is pretty small and obscure by most standards, there's a surprising number of people who want to bash the company and claim that its success is only due to the fact that it is, in many cases, the only approved supplier of a particular component.

Let the haters hate - I'm firmly in the black with these shares and the trailing performance compares quite nicely with the semiconductor sector as a whole, not to mention individual rivals like Silicon Labs (SLAB), Fairchild (FCS), and Semtech (SMTC). What's more, the company is built upon a continuous flow of new products, coupled with moves to unlock more operating leverage from the operations. Although these shares are close to my fair value, and I have considered selling them in favor of owning a more undervalued chip stock, a recovery in multiple end-markets could drive higher performance from here.

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Microsemi Not Quite To Plan, But Still Improving

Seeking Alpha: Microsemi Offers Underrated Potential

Much as I may complain about Microsemi (MSCC) being a frustrating stock to own, not a lot of that frustration has to do with management. In fact, this management team pretty much does what it says it will. A few years back, management said they'd make use of their balance sheet to do deals and bring new products, technologies, and markets into the mix, and they did so.

Since then, management said they'd be zeroing in on operating improvements, and while the margin trajectory hasn't been a straight line, the numbers are getting better. At the same time, the company continues to look for opportunities to leverage technology and customer relationships to deepen its moat. All told, Microsemi looks like a good way to play both improving chip demand and an operating leverage story.

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Microsemi Offers Underrated Potential

Seeking Alpha: Challenges Abound, But Overlooked Microsemi Should Be Ready To Deliver

Small-cap chip company Microsemi (MSCC) gets a lot of flak for what it is (highly exposed to defense) and what it isn't (a fast-growing mobile device story), but the fact remains that this company has grown revenue at a 20% compounded average rate over the past decade. What's more, the company is offering a rare combo - a good legacy business where competition faces an uphill battle, coupled with organic growth opportunities in growth markets and positive margin leverage.

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Challenges Abound, But Overlooked Microsemi Should Be Ready To Deliver