Seeking Alpha: Sentiment May Be Gaining On Allison Transmission

I was bullish on Allison Transmission (ALSN) in early October ("Allison Transmission A Stand-Out In Multiple Ways"), and I cannot complain about the 18% move since then as it has outpaced the S&P 500 and other truck component companies like Cummins (CMI) and Dana (DAN). Management has recently confirmed that improving North American truck orders are starting to flow through to their order books and that the fracking market is coming back to life.

I still really like the long-term idea of Allison as a share-gainer in the commercial vehicle transmission market, but I am a little concerned that analyst and investor enthusiasm is running ahead of the underlying vehicle markets. A 12x EBITDA multiple only gets the stock to about $30 and that's a pretty strong multiple relative to the company's likely growth rate. There is certainly a chance that the recoveries in Allison's markets will lead to outperformance and/or that the company will gain share in OUS markets faster than expected, but I don't see Allison as quite the bargain it was about six months ago.

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Sentiment May Be Gaining On Allison Transmission

Seeking Alpha: Isn't Torchmark Supposed To Be Defensive?

Life and supplemental health insurance company Torchmark (TMK) is unusual in a lot of ways. Not only does the company have a pretty exceptional history of returns on equity, those returns have been remarkably consistent. The company's underwriting risk is low and not many companies can compete in its core life insurance markets. What's perhaps even stranger is that this supposedly defensive insurance stock is doing quite well in a market where conditions are seen as improving for the sector.

Even though Torchmark would normally have less to gain from the improving economy and rising rates, these shares may yet be undervalued. Torchmark's different model makes P/TBV valuation almost useless, but the shares look surprisingly cheap on the basis of an excess return model. I don't normally think to look at the 52-week high list for bargains, but Torchmark could still offer some meaningful upside from today's level.

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Isn't Torchmark Supposed To Be Defensive?

Seeking Alpha: TIBCO Beats, But There's A Lot Left To Prove

Investors waiting for the "all clear" on TIBCO (TIBX) continue to get mixed messages. The company certainly had one of the strongest quarters for infrastructure and billings in many quarters, but the easy year-ago comp mutes some of the enthusiasm, particularly when it is clear that the key analytics business Spotfire continues to decelerate. A recent change in executive incentives could mark a shift toward a more margin-centric approach, but it remains to be seen whether growth in areas like analytics, ESB, and cloud can offset what looks like a slowing core business.

Talking about value is tricky in tech, as investors so often reward growth irrespective of value. Provided that TIBCO can improve margins, a high single-digit FCF growth rate seems plausible and both a DCF and EV/rev approach suggest these shares remain undervalued.

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TIBCO Beats, But There's A Lot Left To Prove

Seeking Alpha: Macro Events Buffeting Adecoagro

Farming is hard enough without the added issues of questionable government actions, but that's the reality of the operating environment for Adecoagro (AGRO). This large South American sugar, ethanol, farming, and land company has had to deal with the "known unknowns" of uncertainties in sugar, ethanol, crop, and land prices, but also the ongoing problems in the Argentine economy, the risk of larger harvests in North America, and now the geopolitical issues between Ukraine and Russia.

Adecoagro remains a patience-testing play on the realization of the underlying value of its land holdings and its long-term expansion plans in sugarcane processing and ethanol production. Today's valuation continues to look well short of that implied by recent land transactions and Adecoagro looks like a good value option for investors who can sit patiently through the ups and downs.

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Macro Events Buffeting Adecoagro

Seeking Alpha: Can Investors Leverage Leftover Skepticism On Genworth To Their Advantage?

A few years ago investors were spoiled for choice when it came to insurance companies. Many of these companies have since repaired their balance sheets and returned to posting decent if not good returns. The markets have responded, leaving investors considering names like MetLife (MET) and Arch Capital (ACGL) in a position where they are looking at longer timelines for meaningful market-beating returns.

Genworth (GNW) is a different story. The stock has given investors a wild ride, but the last couple of years have been pretty solid. Even with new management and clear progress in improving its businesses, there's still some lingering skepticism regarding Genworth and the company's ability to return to high single-digit ROEs. Genworth has chosen to stay in businesses that many other insurance companies have left behind, but if Genworth's long-term ROE hits 8% or 9%, there's still upside for a stock at its highest point in four years.

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Can Investors Leverage Leftover Skepticism On Genworth To Their Advantage?

Seeking Alpha: The Market Seems To Believe Veolia Has Turned The Corner

France-based global utility Veolia Environnement (VE) has given investors a pretty wild ride. The company's excessive ambition for growth stoked a lot of bullish sentiment early in the decade, but the combination of Europe's deep recession and sloppy execution lead to disappointing margins, cash flows, and investors.

Veolia management started taking turnaround efforts seriously in 2013, pushing ahead with cost cuts, asset sales, and a restructuring of the company's operating priorities. The company still has a lot to do if its going to produce margins on par with its close peer Suez Environnement (OTCPK:SZEVY), let alone American comps like American States Water (AWR) or Waste Management (WM), but the better than 100% trough-to-peak move tells me that a lot of investors buy the self-improvement story and/or want to be positioned in basic services as Europe's economy turns around.

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The Market Seems To Believe Veolia Has Turned The Corner

Seeking Alpha: Pacific Biosciences Looking To Carve Out Its Niche

High-end sequencing company Pacific Biosciences (PACB) still has much left to prove. The company has done a good job of improving system performance and reliability, but the 800lb gorilla in the sequencing space, Illumina (ILMN), books more orders for both its HiSeq and MiSeq platforms in a quarter than PacBio has installed in the field. PacBio's alliance with Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) provided a significant boost to the stock, but it has yet to be established that the company can develop systems and tests that will work in the clinical diagnostics setting.

I continue to believe that PacBio has a worthwhile future, as I believe the company can address a multibillion-dollar opportunity by targeting applications where Illumina's technology does not work as well. Microbial and plant genetics, so-called "platinum genomes", and epigenetics are all areas where PacBio's technology can play a long-term role. This is by no means a stock for the nervous or impatient investor, but I believe opportunity remains even after the large move in 2013.

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Pacific Biosciences Looking To Carve Out Its Niche

Seeking Alpha: CEMIG Walking A Fine Line In A Challenging Market

Older investors can likely remember a time when those who wanted to invest in emerging markets had few choices outside of telecom, bank, and utility companies. Nowadays there is a much larger menu of choices and sectors like utilities have had to do deal with the same sort of regulatory and growth issues that affect their developed market peers.

In the case of CEMIG (or "Cemig") (CIG), Brazil's second-largest utility has the advantage of a sizable distribution and transmission business to offset risks in the generation business, but the company is looking at the loss of sizable generating concessions and a much more aggressive regulatory environment. It also does not help matters that Brazil's electricity sector appears to be moving toward oversupply and that management is willing to allocate capital to projects with IRRs only basically in line with the company's cost of capital.

That said, the market's valuation of Cemig already reflects a lot of these challenges. Moreover, even if the future isn't likely to be as profitable as the past, this is a company with a good history of free cash flow generation and returns on capital relative to its sector. Management seems committed to paying a healthy dividend and these shares don't look very expensive today.

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CEMIG Walking A Fine Line In A Challenging Market

The Motley Fool: Could Smith & Nephew Plc Be a Good Value?

Procedures volumes have started picking up and pricing pushbacks from payers has eased, leading many stocks in the orthopedics space to log good runs. Smith & Nephew plc (NYSE: SNN  ) has done better than peers/rivals like Stryker (NYSE: SYK  ) and Zimmer over the last twelve months, but oddly enough it may yet offer more value. The company's knee business appears to be regaining some share and the acquisition of Arthrocare (NASDAQ: ARTC  ) should be a highly synergistic opportunity to grow in a space that offers better prospects than major joint reconstruction.

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Could Smith & Nephew Plc Be a Good Value?

The Motley Fool: FEMSA Hopes to Put a Tough Year Behind It

The past year was not a particularly strong one in the consumer sectors of Latin American countries like Mexico and Brazil, and that was not good news for FEMSA (NYSE: FMX  ) . One of Mexico's largest corporations, FEMSA has a significant presence in the retail/consumer world with its stake in Coca-Cola FEMSA (NYSE: KOF  ) , a large Latin American Coca-Cola bottler, a 20% stake in brewer Heineken, and ownership of Oxxo, the third-largest retailer in Mexico.

The challenge for investors is weighing out the short-term challenges presented by a possibly improving (but not yet strong) Mexican economy, new taxes, economic problems in Argentina and Venezuela, and competition against the long-term opportunity of growing Coca-Cola FEMSA and leveraging the retail operations into new areas like pharmacies and fast food that are still underpenetrated in Mexico.

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FEMSA Hopes to Put a Tough Year Behind It

The Motley Fool: Can Regeneron Keep Churning Out Blockbusters?

Developing a great drug is hard enough, but developing an R&D platform that reliably churns out new high-quality experimental compounds is a rare feat in biotech. That Regeneron (NASDAQ: REGN  ) has managed to create one of the strongest platforms in antibodies is both a credit to its leadership and IP, as well as a strong generator of long-term value for shareholders. Regeneron's shares do not look particularly cheap today, but upside from products like Eylea and alirocumab and de-risking of the pipeline give shareholders some reason to stay engaged.

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Can Regeneron Keep Churning Out Blockbusters?

Seeking Alpha: F5 Networks Basking In Some Rebound Love

In a lot of ways, application and network traffic manager F5 (FFIV) is a quintessential tech stock. This company built a great little island for itself in Application Delivery Controllers (or ADCs), but has had some meaningful ups and downs in building/linking new, equally-valuable islands. F5 has also seen wild swings in its share price as investors wax and wane on its growth prospects; when investors like F5, they really like it, and when they don't like it, they really don't like it.

The stretch from early 2012 to about mid-2013 was a rough one, as the share price plunged about 50% on fears that the ADC market was slowing (and perhaps permanently so), virtual ADCs and competition from Citrix (CTXS) were chewing up F5's business, and that new growth platforms like security and diameter signaling couldn't fill the breach. Then, investors got more bullish on F5's ADC prospects, as well as its overall vision to become a comprehensive player in network orchestration, application control, and load balancing, and the stock has regained a lot of that lost value.

What now? I think F5 is fundamentally undervalued, but this is also a stock where momentum/sentiment plays a powerful role. I don't think the shares have topped out just yet, but anybody buying today has to be pretty nimble and/or have a good sense of where the Street's mood is on the shares from month-to-month or week-to-week.

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F5 Networks Basking In Some Rebound Love

Seeking Alpha: Actuant Could Use A Boost To Growth

As conglomerates go, Actuant (ATU) is more diverse than most and while it is often one of the largest/leading companies in the sectors in which it competes, it can be challenging to corroborate the company's performance with its peer group. Be that as it may, performance has been a little iffy lately relative to sell-side expectations and the stock has been stuck in a relatively narrow band for the past year.

Actuant isn't lacking in ambition, as management intends to use organic/internal development and M&A to push toward a doubling of the business in five years. That may well be attainable, but the company's poor history of ROIC generation lends itself to questions like "growth at what cost?" I do believe that Actuant is undervalued today, and I like its hydraulic tools and bolt tightening businesses, but I'd want to see a better path for margins and returns on capital before thinking of it as a potential core holding.

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Actuant Could Use A Boost To Growth

Seeking Alpha: Stronger Organic Growth Has Investors Excited About Colfax

There are definitely some valid reasons to like Colfax (CFX). Not only is this industrial conglomerate explicitly looking to replicate much of the successful Danaher model, the company has the highest leverage to emerging markets of almost any peer and is likewise leveraged to industries like power generation and oil/gas/petrochemicals where capital expenditures should be strong for several years.

There is a point where enough's enough, though. Colfax shares seem to be pricing in FCF growth of close to 16% (including the recent acquisition of Victor Technologies) and trade at more than 14x 2014 EBITDA estimates. Even allowing that Colfax can be a revenue and profit growth leader in the industrial sector over the next few years, that seems like a steep price to pay.

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Stronger Organic Growth Has Investors Excited About Colfax

Seeking Alpha: Global Brass And Copper Needs Some Polish

The theme of a recovery in U.S. housing demand and construction (as well as non-residential construction) is hardly "new news", but it is still quite relevant to the prospects of Global Brass and Copper (BRSS), the largest converter of copper and brass products in the U.S.. Global Brass has not been public all that long, but the stock has not been able to hold on to initial optimism, as volume growth, capacity utilization and EBITDA generation have all been trending below the bullish predictions of sell-side coverage initiation pieces.

The demand outlook for Global Brass is a little muddled in my view. Large markets like autos and industrial machinery have already largely recovered and while housing/construction may start providing a tailwind, there's a headwind to consider from lower munitions sales. I'm also not terribly impressed with Global Brass's EBITDA margin relative to other fabricator/converter comps. Even so, and even with a discounted multiple, these shares do look undervalued today and could offer some meaningful upside if or when volume and leverage start to materialize.

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Global Brass And Copper Needs Some Polish

The Motley Fool: Vertex Pharmacueticals Inc Approaching a Huge Fork in the Road

Orphan drugs are hot these days, so when an investor finds a biotech focused on orphan drugs that appears to be undervalued, it certainly merits further investigation. In the case of Vertex (NASDAQ: VRTX  ) , it all comes down to risk and a major upcoming clinical data release -- If Phase III studies reveal success for a new combination therapy for cystic fibrosis, these shares could easily head to $100 (or higher). If the trials are declared failures, though, the downside could be $25 per share or higher.

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Vertex Pharmacueticals Inc Approaching a Huge Fork in the Road

Seeking Alpha: Like The Black Knight, Societe Generale Isn't Dead Yet

French-based multinational bank Societe Generale (OTCPK:SCGLY) definitely got some parts lopped off during the credit crisis and European recession, but the bank has since proven that reports of its demise (or perpetual irrelevancy) were greatly exaggerated. The company's performance in 2013 was by no means flawless, and the company has much still to do, but patient shareholders have been rewarded with a nearly 70% rise over the past year and a 90% rise over the past two years.

Relative to distressed brethren like Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Santander (SAN), and HSBC (HSBC), Societe Generale has the best two-year performance of the lot, with only Bank of America coming close to challenging SocGen's return. Looking ahead, there is still a credible argument that SocGen can do better and see further re-rating. The company's ROE goal of 10% does not seem out of line and can underpin a $14 fair value, while outperformance in areas like Russia could offer some scope for upside.

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Like The Black Knight, Societe Generale Isn't Dead Yet

Seeking Alpha: Lynas Can't Afford Further Delays

I thought Lynas (OTCQX:LYSDY) looked like an interesting, albeit very risky, mining story back in December of 2013 ("Weak Prices Have Lynas Fighting An Undertow"). While the shares did participate a bit in the early 2014 run in mining companies, it didn't last and one of my biggest concerns (further issues ramping up the processing facility) seems to be coming home to roost.

Although management believes it could reach a 11ktpa production run-rate (a level where cash flow breakeven seems probable) in June of 2014, this is a company that has built a reputation for missing deadlines and coming in short of their own goals. What's more, the shortfalls in ramping up production have created the need for additional funding, as cash on hand won't be enough to keep up with annual costs and a debt repayment due in September. These shares may still offer a rich reward given the potential or theoretical net asset value, but funding terms are not going to be generous and it is hard to ignore the ongoing declines in near-term EBITDA expectations.

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Lynas Can't Afford Further Delays

Seeking Alpha: Allana Potash In Better Shape, But Nobody Cares

You would think that a significant strategic alliance that meaningfully lowers the long-term execution and financing risk for a junior mining company would mean big things for the stock of the junior miner in question. Unfortunately, that is not the case with Allana Potash (OTCPK:ALLRF) (AAA.TO), as these shares have gone nowhere on a net basis since I first wrote on them in January ("Allana Potash Offers Substantial Potential Rewards For Significant Risk").

Allana still offers a very high level of risk, but also a high potential reward should its Dallol potash mine move into production and live up to expectations. While the strategic alliance is definitely dilutive to shareholders, reduced risk offsets some of that, leaving an attractive fair value estimate of around C$0.85.

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Allana Potash In Better Shape, But Nobody Cares

Seeking Alpha: Challenging End Markets Weighing On Global Power Equipment

Roughly a year ago, I looked into Global Power Equipment (GLPW) ("Global Power Equipment Is Either A Big Value Or A Trap") and came away thinking that although 2013 would be a challenging year, there was a good risk-reward profile overall. The performance since then has reflected that to some extent, as the shares are up about 15% since then, but have been relatively volatile.

Demand in the nuclear power service market has remained weak, and the company's efforts to build out its products/solutions business are going to take time to bear fruit. Long term, it makes sense to get involved in areas like pipelines, distributed generation, and LNG, but plenty of companies with ties to the natural gas/LNG equipment space (like Chart Industries (GTLS) and Dresser-Rand (DRC)) can attest to the challenging demand environment right now. Sluggish guidance doesn't help near-term prospects, but Global Power's shares still look interesting for patient investors wanting to be long on natural gas, LNG, and power gen infrastructure.

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Challenging End Markets Weighing On Global Power Equipment

Seeking Alpha: Gamesa Continues To Run On Its Second Wind

Spanish wind turbine manufacturer Gamesa (OTCPK:GCTAY) (GAM.MC) has continued to face quite a bit of skepticism from analysts regarding its turnaround prospects, but the company continues to execute on its turnaround plan. That plan has led to high single-digit order growth for 2013 and a return to double-digit growth in the fourth quarter, and the stock has continued to recover with the shares up about 250% over the past year and another 60% since my write-up in September ("The Street Still Doubts Gamesa Has A Business For The Long Term").

There is always a risk with turnaround stocks that investors will push their luck and hold on too long. To that end, Gamesa is not out of the woods. The company is still looking up at the global market shares held by Vestas (OTCPK:VWDRY), General Electric (GE), and Siemens (SI), and moving into the offshore market (where Siemens and Vestas hold more than 80% share) with Areva (OTCPK:ARVCY) could prove tantamount to a bunny jumping in a wood chipper. Should Gamesa manage mid-single digit revenue growth and additional margin improvements, these shares could have another 10% or so left in them before settling in to market-par return.

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Gamesa Continues To Run On Its Second Wind

The Motley Fool: Is Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Overvalued?

With a $9 billion market cap and a stock that has shot up 1,167% over the past twelve months, it is not too surprising that expectations are high for Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ICPT  ) and investors are nervous about even the slightest hint of trouble in the clinical pipeline. To that end, it would seem that investors are more nervous about the prospect of a cardiovascular safety issue in the Phase II study of lead compound obeticholic acid (or OCA) than cheered by another strong trial outcome in primary biliary cirrhosis.

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Is Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Overvalued?

Seeking Alpha: Wabtec Remains A Frustrating Mix Of Quality, Opportunity, And Expectations

Locomotive and train car components manufacturer Wabtec (WAB) has missed revenue expectations for four straight quarters, but it hasn't done any harm to the sentiment on the stock. These shares are up more than 60% for the past year and over 100% over the past two years, as investors continue to play their enthusiasm for a rail infrastructure build-out in the U.S. and the potential for Wabtec to replicate its "components on almost every car" market share in North America, in Europe and Asia.

Wabtec also remains a frustrating company to evaluate from a valuation perspective. If Wabtec could hold 20% overseas market share by 2023 in those areas, where it has roughly 50% share in North America, a fair value above $100 is definitely reasonable. On the other hand, these shares already trade with significant near-term expectations, and it could take more than a decade to build significant share in markets like Russia or China.

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Wabtec Remains A Frustrating Mix Of Quality, Opportunity, And Expectations

Seeking Alpha: Arch Capital Seldom Looks Cheap, But Mortgage Insurance Should Spur Growth

I've never made any secrets of the respect I have for Arch Capital (ACGL) management. Many company executives talk about the importance of creating shareholder value and making decisions to maximize value, but it is my opinion that Arch Capital lives up to that to a much higher degree than most other companies. When the management sees attractive return-generating opportunities, they deploy capital. When management does not see those opportunities, they conserve and/or return capital.

Investors had a rare opportunity to acquire Arch Capital shares at attractive valuations, but only when it seemed like the U.S. financial system was melting down. Since then, the shares have regained their luster and their high-end multiples. I do believe that Arch Capital's foray into mortgage insurance will prove a good move, and quality companies have a knack for exceeding long-term expectations (and price targets), but the short-term opportunity is not to compelling.

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Arch Capital Seldom Looks Cheap, But Mortgage Insurance Should Spur Growth

Seeking Alpha: Hoya's Prospects Brightened By Life Care

As the computer and display-weighted technology businesses stabilize and the life care/health care businesses grow, Hoya's (OTCPK:HOCPY) prospects have improved. Sell-side analysts still seem to have relatively restrained revenue growth expectations, despite double-digit growth in life care today, significant untapped potential in emerging markets, and both a balance sheet and cash flow profile that could support acquisitions to drive further growth.

Valuation is a little more complicated. With the shares up almost 70% over the past year (the Tokyo-listed shares, that is), the valuation is not quite so compelling but I wouldn't say the shares are overvalued. Consistently solid returns on capital would argue for an attractive discount rate, and the sell-side may well be underestimating the company's ability to grow both sales and profits.

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Hoya's Prospects Brightened By Life Care

The Motley Fool: Will Pfizer Inc's Vaccine Strategy Pay Off?

Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) recently lost a battle to preserve its patent coverage on Celebrex, but it's not all bad news for this pharmaceutical giant. The company's Prevnar-13 pneumococcal vaccine is shaping up as a stronger-than-expected product, with comprehensive outcomes data potentially supporting much broader recommendations for use and a larger addressable market. Better still, it's not just Prevnar that could drive higher vaccine sales for Pfizer in the coming years.

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Will Pfizer Inc's Vaccine Strategy Pay Off?

The Motley Fool: Is the Market Undervaluing Celgene?

Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG  ) admittedly does not leap off the page as a cheap stock, at least not with a cursory glance. The shares are up about 40% over the past year (and more than 100% over the past two years) and trade at more than nine times sales and 11 times book, not to mention more than 16 times forward earnings.

Look closer, though, as this oncology-focused bio/pharma not only has a deep early stage pipeline of oncology drugs, but meaningful label expansion opportunities for approved drugs. Celgene is also preparing to launch its first immunology drug and the Street's expectations are quite a bit lower than those of management. A patent challenge to the company's lead drug is definitely a serious matter, but the shares appear undervalued even amid an ongoing bull market in the health care space.

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Is the Market Undervaluing Celgene?

The Motley Fool: BRF SA Holds Impressive Long-Term Potential

Analysts and investors like to talk about "the next Apple" or "the next Microsoft," but they don't often talk about "the next Nestle (NASDAQOTH: NSRGY  ) ". That's a shame, as Brazil's BRF (NYSE: BRFS  ) , or Brasil Foods, has set that goal for itself; it has a long-term target of becoming a global packaged-foods leader with a particular focus on emerging markets. The path between here and there is not going to be smooth and setback-free, but BRF looks like a somewhat beaten-down name to consider in the emerging markets.

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BRF SA Holds Impressive Long-Term Potential

Seeking Alpha: Dresser-Rand Caught In A Move Toward More Capital Discipline

Whenever large energy companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM) start embracing the virtues of disciplined capital spending and managing for returns instead of growth, it's seldom good news for equipment providers. That may be oversimplifying the challenges that Dresser-Rand (DRC) is facing, but it looks as though delays in upstream projects are having a real impact on the business. This year may prove to be a year where large energy concerns "digest" what they already have in progress, but it is hard to call Dresser-Rand cheap, even if orders do start to pick up again later this year and into 2015.

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Dresser-Rand Caught In A Move Toward More Capital Discipline

Seeking Alpha: Weak Performance Continues To Plague Amedisys

If you can't beat 'em, give up. After several quarters where Amedisys (AMED) has missed analyst expectations, interim management has chosen to stop providing guidance for the timing being. Seeing as how the company needs to hire a new CEO (who likely will come in with a set of ideas about how to run/change the business) and is still in the midst of efforts to reduce costs and respond to reimbursement cuts, that's a reasonable move. Still, in the absence of information investors may choose to assume the worst.

It is difficult to feel all that cheerful or optimistic about this business. Costs per visit have been rising steadily, while revenue is pressured by reimbursement cuts and sluggish admissions. Amedisys is one of the largest operators in a fragmented industry likely to consolidate in response to ongoing reimbursement pressures, but a settlement with the government will stress the balance sheet and margins are very weak at present. The stock has been surprisingly strong for all of the company's travails, but I'd be hesitant to pay almost double the valuation (on a forward EV/EBITDA basis) for Amedisys over its peers even if this is a low period for the industry.

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Weak Performance Continues To Plague Amedisys

Seeking Alpha: VeriFone Firmly Back In The Good Graces Of Growth Investors

Payment technology developer VeriFone (PAY) still has work to do in turning around actual reported growth numbers, but the market has fully re-embraced this stock as a growth story in the payments technology space. Rival Ingenico (OTCPK:INGIY) still appears to be growing faster and gaining share, but VeriFone seems to be getting its legs back underneath it and fixing the problems that hammered the company (and the stock) from early 2012 through mid-2013. Value investors are going to have a hard time with this one, but the EBITDA multiple does not seem out of line with near-term growth prospects.

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VeriFone Firmly Back In The Good Graces Of Growth Investors

Seeking Alpha: Arcos Dorados Still Several Fries Short Of A Happy Meal

It's tough to grow a business when two large markets are convulsing under the weight of horrible macroeconomic mismanagement, but Arcos Dorados (ARCO) isn't going to get a free pass just because the problems in Argentina and Venezuela are not its fault. Inflation, affordability, and competition remain challenges across the company's operations and I don't fault investors who want nothing to do with another Latin American consumer stock groaning under the weight of macroeconomic issues.

The shares of Arcos Dorados are down about 10% from when I last wrote, and the story remains frustratingly similar. There is significant growth potential in the business, as it could double the number of McDonald's (MCD) stores it operates over the next decade, but potential isn't worth much if the actual results don't get better.

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Arcos Dorados Still Several Fries Short Of A Happy Meal

Seeking Alpha: For Teleflex, Small Things Add Up

If companies like Intuitive Surgical and Heartware live on the "gee whiz" end of the med-tech spectrum, Teleflex (TFX) is on the other end. That is not to say that there isn't meaningful R&D and engineering going into the company's products, but categories like central venous catheters, PICCs, Foley catheters, and endotracheal tubes just don't tend to get growth-oriented med-tech investors all that excited.

Even so, Teleflex has a lot going for it. The company has been a very willing acquirer and increased investments in R&D should lead the way to more innovative new products and market share growth. In the meantime, management is focused on operating improvements that should support double-digit earnings growth. While Teleflex does not look all that cheap on a discounted cash flow basis, the company's above-average growth prospects could maintain healthy valuation multiples.

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For Teleflex, Small Things Add Up

The Motley Fool: Statoil ASA's Focus on Returns and Higher-Grade Assets Should Pay Off

This year has already started off on a much better foot for Statoil (NYSE: STO  ) than its recent stock market experience. Maligned for its high finding and development costs, its dependence on high oil prices, and its weaker near-term production growth, Statoil investors had to endure a frustrating stretch where the short term-obsessed market wasn't willing to give the company its due.

Now, though, the market appears to be taking a more optimistic view. The turbulence in Ukraine has drawn attention back to Statoil's position as the largest supplier of gas to Europe outside of Russia. At the same time, management has openly turned to a more returns-oriented approach and has spent the last year upgrading its portfolio and making some major oil and gas discoveries. Valuation for oil and gas companies may be frustratingly imprecise, but Statoil seems to be offering a good mix of improving returns, capital appreciation, and a solid yield.

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Statoil ASA's Focus on Returns and Higher-Grade Assets Should Pay Off

The Motley Fool: Can Valeant Continue This Growth?

Canada's Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: VRX  ) is a good example of what can be done when a company chooses to go its own way and zig while others zag. In an industry that had becoming increasingly skittish about mergers and acquisitions as a growth driver, Valeant has done about 60 deals in the last six years. In an industry that is increasingly spinning off divisions and focusing on "core operations, Valeant management is willing to go wherever opportunity takes them – prescription drugs, devices, OTC, and branded generics.

The potential merits of Valeant's approach certainly have not gone unnoticed, as the shares have nearly doubled over the past year. Valeant's uncommonly aggressive use of leverage does add some risk to the story, but the company has used its balance sheet to build very sizable franchises in dermatology, eye care, and aesthetics, and the opportunity to launch a "merger of equals" and leverage better operating and tax efficiency could propel the shares further.

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Can Valeant Continue This Growth?

The Motley Fool: Can Alexion Pharmaceuticals Continue to Deliver?

Successful biotechs are generally expected to reinvest their profits into the development of broad pipelines, but Alexion  (NASDAQ: ALXN  )  is following a somewhat different path. While I do not mean to give short shrift to this company's pipeline development efforts, the fact is that Alexion has been more interested in maximizing the value of its blockbuster orphan drug Soliris than relying on new development projects. That strategy has served the company well so far, and while there may some reasons to question whether health care systems will continue to support such generous reimbursement for orphan drugs, Soliris could yet offer significant growth potential.

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Can Alexion Pharmaceuticals Continue to Deliver?

Seeking Alpha: Douglas Dynamics Looks For Cold Weather To Spur A Hot Streak

The last couple of years have added some operational complexity to Douglas Dynamics' (PLOW) business, as lower snowfalls and economic issues led to lower demand for the company's market-leading snowplows and lower orders from dealers looking to better manage their inventory. This winter has seen something of a perfect storm for the company, as higher than average snowfalls compared with low dealer inventories have led to higher shipments, orders, and management expectations for 2014 performance.

Douglas Dynamics enjoys very solid market share and should see relatively consistent replacement demand. The company also has the opportunity to pursue deals like its TrynEx acquisition to leverage its dealer network and generate operating synergies from similar businesses. All of that said, it seems a bit of stretch to call the stock significantly undervalued at today's levels.

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Douglas Dynamics Looks For Cold Weather To Spur A Hot Streak

Seeking Alpha: The LipoScience Holding Pattern Continues

The reimbursement environment for diagnostics company LipoScience (LPDX) is not going to change in a quarter's time and with that, neither will the commercial/financial situation change all that much. LipoScience remains what it has been for some time - a company with a very interesting cholesterol test, one that measures the actual number of cholesterol particles and not just the overall amount of cholesterol in the blood, but a company that definitely needs to sell payers and clinicians on the importance of this test and its role in health care management.

If LipoScience can accumulate and present the data necessary to sway insurance companies and doctors, $100 million in annual revenue in five years' time and $200 million in 10 years' time should be sufficient to justify a stock price closer to $8 today. Unfortunately, it's quite difficult to get institutions excited about a small-cap med-tech stock reporting contracting revenue and that has seen recent executive turnover. Readers thinking about LipoScience as an investment need to realize that this is both an above-average risk situation and one where patience will be required.

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The LipoScience Holding Pattern Continues

Seeking Alpha: With GRAS Status In Hand, It's Close To 'Go Time' For Senomyx's Partners

Patience with development-stage food additive developer Senomyx (SNMX) has really started paying off over the last six months. Investors started bidding up the shares on expectations of FDA approval of key product S617, as well as optimism that the company's direct sales effort will lead to greater adoption of products already shown to replace significant amounts of sugar or other sweeteners and those that enhance savory flavors.

Up almost 170% from where I recommended the stock as a Top Idea, it's tempting to call it a day and take the winnings off the table. While obtaining the GRAS designation removes a critical commercialization hurdle for Senomyx's partners PepsiCo (PEP) and Firmenich, there are still many operating risks remaining, including commercial introduction and acceptance of products using Senomyx's additives. I'm bullish about the prospects of S617 in beverages like sodas and sports drinks, but I'm not so bullish yet on the opportunities in foods like baked goods. If adoption there proves stronger than I currently expect, the upside for the shares could be considerable.

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With GRAS Status In Hand, It's Close To 'Go Time' For Senomyx's Partners

Seeking Alpha: An Unexpected Turn In Wright Medical's Attempts To Get Augment To Market

Wright Medical's (WMGI) acquisition of BioMimetic Therapeutics and its Augment biological product for bone healing has been almost nothing but trouble. At seemingly every turn the FDA has thrown up obstacles to Augment, quibbling about the use of CT scanning, demanding re-readings of scans by additional radiologists, requiring antibody testing, and forcing the company to count unrelated secondary surgeries as product failures.

The end result is that the FDA has refused on multiple occasions to approve Augment, putting the $190 million acquisition (excluding potential future contingent payments) at real risk. Wright Medical isn't going down without a fight, though, having appealed the FDA's last rejection. On Monday March 10, though, a new development arose that while not really improving the ultimate odds of approval, at least suggests that the FDA may be trying to work with the company to get Augment to market after all.

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An Unexpected Turn In Wright Medical's Attempts To Get Augment To Market

Seeking Alpha: Belle Needs To Polish Its Online Efforts

Belle International (OTCPK:BELLY) has built itself into the largest branded footwear retailer in China with a vertically integrated model, a half-dozen of the strongest brands in the country, and over 14% market share (and almost 50% market share of ladies mid-to-high-end brands). Although Belle has shown itself to be pretty adept at building brands and running a store-based concept (with over 19,000 points of sale in China), it has proven far less skilled with its online offerings and the company has struggled to drive profitable growth through this channel and is instead facing some real competition.

Belle acknowledges its deficits in online marketing/retailing and management is working on the problem. In the meantime, the company is slowing its new store construction in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities and using its considerable cash pile to conduct M&A transactions with an eye toward becoming a more diversified apparel retailer. I would give Belle a better chance than its peers of pulling off this transition successfully, but it may be some time before revenue and EBIT growth returns to a strong double-digit clip.

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Belle Needs To Polish Its Online Efforts

Seeking Alpha: Amidst A Weak Chinese Consumer Market, CRE Faring Even Worse

Naming China Resource Enterprises (OTCPK:CRHKY) as a Top Pick in August of 2013 has been a lousy call so far. Down almost 20%, about the best thing I can say about that call is that most of the Chinese consumer sector has gotten hit too, with Sun Art (OTCPK:SURRY), Lianhua (OTCPK:LHUAF), and Tsingtao (OTCPK:TSGTY) down about 5% to 10% over the same period on a lot of worries (and some reality) about weaker consumer spending in China.

At the risk of doubling down on a bad call, I do believe that the market is playing up short-term risks and losing sight of what CRE can accomplish over the long term. Clearly "can accomplish" is not the same as "will accomplish", but I expect CRE to leverage leading share in Chinese food retailing and beer into a strong mix of revenue growth and higher margins down the road. I've lowered my expectations and fair value to account for the near-term softness and the earnings dilution from the Tesco JV, but I continue to believe these shares are an interesting long-term opportunity.

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Amidst A Weak Chinese Consumer Market, CRE Faring Even Worse

Seeking Alpha: Ugliness In Venezuela Creating An Opportunity With Copa Holdings

There are exceptions to every rule, including the generally sound advice to steer well clear of airline stocks. Alaska Air Group (ALK) has done well for investors by focusing on the disciplined operation of regional routes, and Copa Holdings (CPA) has followed a broadly similar strategy in across North, Central, and South America.

Investors expect certain risks with airline stocks, namely volatile fuel prices and revenue uncertainty stemming from often irrational competition and the macroeconomic client. The ongoing mismanagement of Venezuela has created another significant risk for Copa, as devaluation imperils the company's significant cash holdings in the country and an escalating spat with the government of Panama could threaten even more.

No airline is a safe investment, but Copa looks well positioned to take advantage of growing traffic across Latin America for many years to come. The market appears to be all but writing off Copa's Venezuela operations, and the shares look too cheap today.

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Ugliness In Venezuela Creating An Opportunity With Copa Holdings

Seeking Alpha: A Rising Tide Of Sentiment Has Lifted Ship Finance

My decision to call Ship Finance (SFL) a Top Idea back on September 19, 2013 wasn't a particularly popular one, but the shares of this large marine vessel leasing company have risen almost 25% since then, while paying a healthy dividend along the way. I'll call that a short-term victory, particularly as Ship Finance has performed just as well or better than a lot of the vessel operators, including Nordic American Tankers (NAT), Costamare (CMRE), and Navios Maritime Partners (NMM).

There seems to be more optimism now about tanker and vessel rates than there has been in some time. Ship Finance has also managed to add vessels to its fleet, with attractive charters, while growing the drilling rig business. I am not as concerned about Ship Finance's ability to maintain its dividend payments, and apparently neither is management, as they recently increased the payout. The solid run in the shares has taken the easy money off the table, but they still hold some appeal for investors with a desire for above-average income and exposure to what may finally prove to be the long-awaited recovery in vessel rates.

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A Rising Tide Of Sentiment Has Lifted Ship Finance

The Motley Fool: FDA Cholesterol Drug Concerns: What You Should Know

As Sanofi (NYSE: SNY  ) / Regeneron (NASDAQ: REGN  ) , Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) , and Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN  ) prepare for the stretch run to getting their PCSK9 inhibitors, high-potential new treatments for cholesterol, approved by the FDA, a new potential complication has emerged. Sanofi and Regeneron revealed through SEC filings that the FDA is now taking a closer look at potential neurocognitive issues with the entire PCSK9 inhibitor class.

The odds still seem to favor the thesis that PCSK9 inhibitors are safe enough for FDA approval. That said, the role of cholesterol in neurocognitive process is significant, so it's not a ridiculous notion to investigate – particularly considering the possibility that many millions of people will be taking these drugs once they are approved and available.

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FDA Cholesterol Drug Concerns: What You Should Know

Seeking Alpha: Prothena's Early-Stage Assets Hold Exciting Potential

Biotech in general is still pretty hot, and orphan drugs development is hotter still. Even allowing for that background of bullishness, I think there may be worthwhile value still remaining in the shares of Prothena (PRTA). It must be noted, though, that Prothena is extremely early-stage and in more normal markets I would expect analysts and investors to assign much lower odds to the company's pipeline. Even so, the science here appears pretty solid and Prothena has the added benefit of backing from the world's largest developer of antibodies.

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Prothena's Early-Stage Assets Hold Exciting Potential

Seeking Alpha: Hurco May Be Seeing The Turn

Machine tool manufacturer Hurco (HURC) has now logged two consecutive quarters with revenues above my expectations, and order flows appear to be improving. Combine that with improving orders reported by German and American machine tool associations and ongoing optimism regarding Europe and North America from Japan's machine tool association, as well as nascent signs of an industrial recovery Hurco's key European market, and maybe a little optimism is not out of place.

Investors considering Hurco as a way to play improving manufacturing conditions in Europe and North America should keep a few things in mind. This is an very illiquid stock and it is effectively unfollowed on Wall Street. It is also important to remember that machine tools are both deeply cyclical and erratically so - this recovery could disappear pretty quickly if issues like the dispute between Ukraine and Russia linger or worsen. It remains a significantly undervalued stock, though, and one that I believe is worth a closer look for investors who can bear the risks.

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Hurco May Be Seeing The Turn

Seeking Alpha: Manitex In Good Shape For A Slow 2014 Recovery

Investors definitely want to believe that the crane market is on its way to recovery, as both Terex (TEX) and Manitowoc (MTW) are near 52-week highs. Clearly, there is more to these businesses than cranes, but a quick perusal of sell-side research shows that's where there is the most optimism. All of that should be good for Manitex (MNTX), a smaller, faster-growing crane player with more of a niche focus.

Manitex really could use a sustained recovery in the U.S. land drilling market, and better conditions in the housing and commercial construction markets wouldn't go unappreciated either. Even so, I think the company deserves credit for outgrowing its markets and showing solid margin improvements, even while integrating acquisitions. Given the slightly better margins and FCF generation, as well as sliding the 10-year DCF model out a year, I'm modestly increasing my fair value estimate and I still think Manitex is a good small-cap growth/GARP story.

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Manitex In Good Shape For A Slow 2014 Recovery

Seeking Alpha: After A Solid Rebound, Ciena Isn't Quite As Appealing

Back in mid-December, I thought Ciena (CIEN) looked like a good buy-the-dip opportunity. Even with the post-earnings pullback on Thursday, the shares are still up about 15% since that piece, nearly tripling the return the S&P 500. I am bullish about the company's partnership with Ericsson (ERIC) and its prospects for growing its global 100G share. At the same time, though, that is going to be a long-term process and I don't see as much undervaluation in the shares as I did three months ago.

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After A Solid Rebound, Ciena Isn't Quite As Appealing

Seeking Alpha: Has Joy Global Bottomed Out?

Cyclical stocks have a way of outdoing expectations both for good and bad. That makes it tricky to feel all that confident that Joy Global (JOY) is bottoming out, particularly when there are still long-term issues with the coal market that makes up a large percentage of the company's equipment revenue base. What Joy Global has done, though, is significantly improved its manufacturing process and shifted its capital focus from M&A to returning cash to shareholders. Provided that coal isn't in perpetual decline as a global energy source, these shares could still have some appeal even after a 20% run from recent lows.

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Has Joy Global Bottomed Out?

Seeking Alpha: Finisar Has Room To Run On Data Center And Telecom Upgrades

Optical components supplier Finisar (FNSR) has a lot going for it. The company has leading share in the $6 billion-plus optical components market and good technology in attractive markets like 10G/40G/100G transceivers and transponders, tunable XFP, and WSS/ROADM. What's more, with a significant data center switch upgrade cycle and ride-along potential in telecom with clients like Cisco (CSCO) and Huawei, growth over the next few years ought to be good.

The real question for Finisar is whether a reader is comfortable buying a stock that is highly unlikely to be a good long-term holding. Consistent revenue and FCF growth in this market has been all but impossible, and threats like silicon photonics loom on the horizon. I believe that Finisar shares still look pretty interesting for the next year or two, but I would be careful not to push my luck and hold them deep into the cycle.

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Finisar Has Room To Run On Data Center And Telecom Upgrades

Seeking Alpha: Stage Stores Shifts Some Scenery

When I wrote in late January that I thought Stage Stores (SSI) was an undervalued retailer about which the Street was too bearish, I didn't expect such a quick change in sentiment. The core retailing environment has not gotten all that much better in the intervening time, but the Street was very glad to hear that the company is moving on from the Steele's off-price format. Stage Stores management hasn't revealed the terms of the deal, but I believe the combination of weaker near-term results and less capital needed to support the growth of Steele's do improve the fair value a bit since late January.

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Stage Stores Shifts Some Scenery

The Motley Fool: Is Mylan a Good Buy?

As branded drugs have become more complicated and global growth has become more important to generic franchises, scale matters more than ever. That's a definite check mark in the plus column for Mylan (NASDAQ: MYL  ) , as it is among the largest generic drug makers in the world and one of the few with the scale and capability to operate not only efficiently, but to crack the code on hard-to-manufacture generics.

Wall Street is definitely keen on the shares right now. The stock has risen almost 80% over the last year, and more than 140% over the last two years, as investors have gotten excited about the potential for generic Lidoderm, Copaxone, and Advair, as well as the potential for additional value-creating M&A deals.

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Is Mylan a Good Buy?

Seeking Alpha: Miller Industries Quietly Executing

I cannot say that I'm thrilled with how Miller Industries (MLR) has performed since I wrote about it as a Top Idea in September of 2013. The shares are slightly ahead of the market since then, and the comp group has ranged from the outperforming Oshkosh (OSK) to the underperforming Spartan Motors (SPAR), but I was hoping for better performance as the company's sales improved. By the same token, this company is totally ignored by the sell-side and isn't very liquid, so it is the type of stock where investors need to have patience in the long-term story.

Looking to the rest of 2014, I continue to like Miller as a play on recovering demand for capital equipment in the towing sector. International markets remain a long-term growth opportunity and the company should see some margin benefits from better operating leverage. As I believe the shares are about 30% below fair value, I still see this as a quality small-cap GARP idea.

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Miller Industries Quietly Executing

Seeking Alpha: Limoneira An Under-Followed Growth Story In The Making

Large-scale agriculture is a different sort of business, and that's not just because so much depends on the weather (in your area and in competitive growing regions) and other uncontrollable factors. Not unlike timber companies like Plum Creek (PCL) and Weyerhaeuser (WY) or Brazilian agriculture companies like SLC Agricola (OTCPK:SLCJY) and Adecoagro (AGRO), value is created both above the ground (growing/harvesting crops and maximizing productivity) and with the ground through selective sales and real estate development.

Real estate figures prominently in the Limoneira (LMNR) story. This company is already a major U.S. grower of lemons and avocados, but if the company's plans work out it will leverage the sale of valuable acreage near Los Angeles (in Ventura County) into a significant expansion of its agricultural lands. Many things could knock this plan off stride, and this is not a well-followed or particularly liquid stock, but the unrealized value potential here seems significant.

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Limoneira An Under-Followed Growth Story In The Making

The Motley Fool: Stormy Weatherford International Ltd Moving in the Right Direction

If you own shares of Weatherford (NYSE: WFT  ) , there have likely been many occasions that left you scratching your head and wondering, "what possessed me to do that?" To management's credit, though, it is no longer pursuing a strategy of bigger-must-be-better and is instead examining where the company's core competencies and profit opportunities really lie.

The second half of 2013 was volatile and largely disappointing as the company missed margin and cash flow generation guidance. This next year is likely to be challenging as well, as the company looks to enact a large headcount reduction as well as the sale/spinoff of multiple non-core businesses. Weatherford's many self-inflicted wounds have obscured that it does in fact do many things well, and investors looking to play a still-undervalued turnaround story in oil services may want to check this one out.

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Stormy Weatherford International Ltd Moving in the Right Direction

The Motley Fool: What Does This Rejection Mean for Eli Lilly?

In the extremely competitive world of Big Pharma, companies have to be careful to keep all of their ducks in neat little rows. I have made no secret of the fact that I believe Lilly (NYSE: LLY  ) struggles in that regard, and yesterday's surprising announcement that the FDA rejected empagliflozin over manufacturing issues at a plant owned and operated by its partner Boehringer Ingelheim doesn't help matters.

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What Does This Rejection Mean for Eli Lilly?

Seeking Alpha: OraSure Seems Too Cheap Relative To Infectious Disease Opportunities

Investors can be a fickle bunch. While they will happily reward strong growth stories with eye-popping valuation multiples, they can be demanding when it comes to the timing of that growth and the marketing/investment spending that the company has to do to generate it. That's my basic thesis on OraSure (OSUR), as the shares of this rapid point-of-care (or PoC) testing specialist seem undervalued relative to other diagnostics growth stories.

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OraSure Seems Too Cheap Relative To Infectious Disease Opportunities

Seeking Alpha: Navistar On Better Footing, But Still Shaky

Turnaround stories rarely ever follow a smooth upward arc and Navistar (NAV) is proving no exception. Management has laudable progress with cost reductions, design improvements, and a generally more realistic approach to running this business, and Wall Street has noticed - taking the shares up about 50% over the past year.

As a look at the chart will reveal, though, that hasn't been a stepwise progression and shares have both risen and fallen sharply on quarterly results. This quarter looks like no exception, as investors aren't liking the shortfall in revenue or quarterly market share, nor the reduced EBITDA guidance for the next quarter. Navistar shares look like an iffy value prospect today, and investors who wish to own these shares now need to make their peace with the above-average volatility that is likely stretch on into 2014.

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Navistar On Better Footing, But Still Shaky

Seeking Alpha: The Beginning Of The End, Or The End Of The Beginning For Technip?

Investors have turned on cautious on capex-sensitive energy service and engineering companies, and that has sent the shares of Technip (OTCQX:TKPPY) down more than 10% over the past year. The concerns are not without some basis, as several major projects were delayed in 2013 and major oil and gas companies have issued modest capex growth guidance.

That Technip is in good company with offshore rivals like Saipem (OTCPK:SAPMY) and Subsea 7 (OTCPK:SUBCY), as well as onshore oil & gas engineering companies like McDermott (MDR), is cold comfort. Although Technip has established a reputation as a superior project and risk manager, weak guidance in late 2013 rattled investor confidence and the shares are trading as if oil and gas capital spending growth will be quite modest from here. It is likely true that capex growth will be lower than the bulls expect, but it looks like the bears have taken things a bit far with Technip.

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The Beginning Of The End, Or The End Of The Beginning For Technip?

Seeking Alpha: Hanesbrands Looking To Double Down On Self-Improvements

What Hanesbrands (HBI) has done over the last few years is pretty impressive. Not only has the company consolidated and streamlined its manufacturing system and more than offset volatile cotton prices, but it has also managed to introduce new value-added products that carry significant premiums. Wall Street has absolutely noticed, taking the shares up over 160% in the trailing two years and nearly 90% in the last 12 months.

Now the company is looking to replicate those improvements across the 2013 acquisition of Maidenform. There are certainly many opportunities for Hanesbrands to cut redundant costs, streamline Maidenform's operations, and drive better utilization while augmenting their brand image. I believe that Hanesbrands will succeed in integrating Maidenform, but expectations have risen with the stock price. There is a significant opportunity to expand the activewear business and the company's share in overseas markets, and success there is going to be important to this stock continuing to outperform.

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Hanesbrands Looking To Double Down On Self-Improvements

The Motley Fool: Does Athenahealth Inc's Growth Justify the Price?

Quality growth rarely comes cheap, but Wall Street seems to have taken it a little too far in the case of Athenahealth (NASDAQ: ATHN  ) . The ambulatory care market is still a growth opportunity, and the company is only just beginning to develop products that can seriously address the acute care market. Even so, it will take truly remarkable growth and share gains for Athenahealth to grow into its current valuation.

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Does Athenahealth Inc's Growth Justify the Price?

Seeking Alpha: Mueller Water Tapped Into Wall Street's Housing Hopes

Investors are clearly expecting improvements in the housing market to continue, and that enthusiasm is helping to push Mueller Water Products (MWA) to a new 52-week high. I don't consider this altogether surprising, as I wrote about six months ago that Wall Street would likely stay on this name so long as the prospects for improved revenue growth and margin leverage remained tenable. While it is harder and harder to see long-term intrinsic value in the shares unless the housing recovery really surprises to the good, momentum and near-term profit growth prospects could take these shares into the low to mid teens.

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Mueller Water Tapped Into Wall Street's Housing Hopes

Seeking Alpha: Dana Doing Well, And The Cycle May Be Getting Better

Dana Holdings Corp's (DAN) strong 2013 momentum broke in a big way in late October when the company warned that revenue and EBITDA would come in about 4% to 6% lower than expected. Weaker commercial/off-highway markets and emerging market currencies shouldn't have been such a big surprise, but expectations were rising and Dana management has had some challenges with short-term forecasting.

Dana has regained a lot of the lost ground since then, but more could still be in store. The company is still not getting full credit for its margin expansion intentions, nor the potential to increase its mix of profitable business as cyclical markets swing back to the positive. It is difficult to trust any vehicle components/parts manufacturer as a long-term holding, but Dana is worth a look for readers who believe that commercial, off-highway, and passenger vehicle markets could be looking at better days.

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Dana Doing Well, And The Cycle May Be Getting Better

Seeking Alpha: Air Transport Group Looking To Recover From A Choppy Start To The Year

In a time when it seems that almost any stock has gone up, Air Transport Group's (ATSG) 13% decline since my last write-up is particularly disappointing. I continue to believe that this is a well-run air cargo company with meaningful opportunities to improve EBITDA and cash flow, but management must convert "opportunity" to results for this stock to perform better. A couple of recent developments should encourage bulls, and the stock remains at a valuation where I think a closer look is warranted.

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Air Transport Group Looking To Recover From A Choppy Start To The Year

Seeking Alpha: Growing Crude And Petrochemical Production Boosting Kirby

Plenty has been written about the significant increases in crude oil production in the U.S. brought about by exploiting unconventional shales like Eagle Ford, Niobrara, and Bakken. Likewise, there has been ample attention given to the increasing production of petrochemicals in the U.S. by virtue of improved access to oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids.

Kirby (KEX) is a lesser-known beneficiary of these trends. The company is easily the largest operator in both the inland barge and coastal barge markets, with more than 23 million barrels of capacity in its fleet. As volumes increase and pipeline capacity becomes more of an issue, Kirby has a rare opportunity to benefit from strong utilization and pricing. Valuation on these shares does appear pretty heady, but is likely sustainable so long as petrochemical demand remains solid.

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Growing Crude And Petrochemical Production Boosting Kirby

The Motley Fool: Can Allergan's Growth Continue?

In the world of Big Pharma, growth is a precious commodity these days. Allergan (NYSE: AGN  ) is a noteworthy exception, though, as the company continues to see strong demand for cornerstone products like Botox an Restasis, as well as its facial aesthetics line. Allergan's pipeline is somewhat more limited than an investor might normally prefer, but the company has been active in pursuing follow-on indications for existing drugs and has had a higher than normal "hit" rate for its pipeline. Though there are frustratingly few true bargains in the pharma space today, Allergan continues to look at least as though it will remain a solid holding.

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Can Allergan's Growth Continue?

Seeking Alpha: Ingles Markets An Okay Supermarket, Sweetened With Real Estate

On the whole, food retailing is not a particularly attractive business in developed markets like the U.S.. Same-store sales growth is typically lackluster, competition is fierce, and margins are thin. New concepts can certainly distinguish themselves, but it is all in all a tough business in which to earn strong returns on capital.

Ingles Markets (IMKTA) is not exactly a tremendous exception. While the company's sales per square foot and margins hold up pretty well relative to the likes Harris Teeter, they definite lag those of Kroger (KR) (which now owns Harris Teeter) or Safeway (SWY), same-store sales growth has been sluggish, and the company's free cash flow generation is not all that impressive. Add in the value of the company's real estate, though, and the picture brightens. The shares currently trade above my "base case" value estimate, but there is upside if commercial real estate prices improve further and/or another supermarket chain looks at Ingles as an incremental growth opportunity.

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Ingles Markets An Okay Supermarket, Sweetened With Real Estate

The Motley Fool: BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Inc.-- Is This Orphan Drug Specialist Overvalued?

It's not easy to develop treatments for rare diseases, but it is hard to argue with the rewards. Prior to its acquisition by Sanofi (NYSE: SNY  ) , Genzyme had already established itself as an important player in enzyme replacement therapies, and Shire (NASDAQ: SHPG  ) and Alexion (NASDAQ: ALXN  ) have both gone on to find meaningful success with treatments that serve tiny patient populations, but carry huge price tags.

BioMarin (NASDAQ: BMRN  ) very much deserves to be in this conversation, as the company has one of the broadest portfolios and pipelines for rare diseases. BioMarin's pipeline definitely has clinical risk and I don't think investors should just assume that payers will always go along with the pricing these companies want. The biggest issue may be overall expectations, though, as BioMarin is going to have to become extremely profitable and deliver exceptional revenue growth just to meet current expectations.

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BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Inc.: Is This Orphan Drug Specialist Overvalued?

The Motley Fool: GlaxoSmithKline PLC: The All-Weather Dividend Giant

Britain's GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK  ) isn't built to run like a gazelle, but it has a pretty diverse business that addresses multiple large therapeutic areas like respiratory, vaccines, HIV, and consumer health. The company has taken some big swings with high-risk/high-reward pipeline candidates that haven't really worked out as hoped, but the pipeline still appears deep and broad enough to keep this supertanker-like pharma company moving forward at a steady pace.

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GlaxoSmithKline PLC: The All-Weather Dividend Giant

Seeking Alpha: Globus Medical Staying On A Growth Track

The world of spinal care continues to be divided among the slow-growing giants like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Medtronic (MDT), and Stryker (SYK) and the much faster-growing up-and-comers like NuVasive (NUVA) and Globus Medical (GMED). With Globus maintaining a focus on continuous product development and new launches and the expansion of its sales effort, the growth prospects continue to look good, particularly as some industry headwinds appear to be abating.

Valuation for med-tech has gotten trickier as the stocks have been quite strong over the last year or so. Globus isn't so appealing from the viewpoint of intrinsic value (discounted cash flow), but the stock doesn't seem overpriced from the perspective of sales and EBITDA multiples.

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Globus Medical Staying On A Growth Track

Seeking Alpha: Bluebird Bio May Turn Dreams Into Reality

Gene therapy has generated exceptional excitement and interest over its potential for over three decades, but actual clinical progress has been painfully slow and frustrating. Bluebird Bio (BLUE) (and I am choosing to capitalize the name, even though it is officially lower case) may be on its way to transforming at least part of the dreams and hopes of gene therapy into reality.

Bluebird has developed a platform that management believes will allow the company to deliver therapies via lentivirus vectors to treat single-gene rare/orphan disorders. The company's lead compound addresses a small market, but the second could be a potential billion-dollar therapy. The risks here are definitely elevated, but Bluebird may be in the early days of establishing a leadership position in a major therapeutic class.

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Bluebird Bio May Turn Dreams Into Reality

The Motley Fool: AstraZeneca PLC's Renovation Plan Fully Underway

Once a floundering big pharma with looming patent cliffs and a pitiful pipeline, CEO Pascal Soriot has remade AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN  ) in a relatively short period of time. Patent cliffs are still likely to compress revenue for the next year, but AstraZeneca now boasts an appealing pipeline targeting a host of therapeutic classes, including an immuno-oncology pipeline that holds up pretty well to comparisons with Bristol-Myers (NYSE: BMY  ) , Merck (NYSE: MRK  ) , and Roche (NASDAQOTH: RHHBY  ) (Mr. Soriot's former employer).

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AstraZeneca PLC's Renovation Plan Fully Underway