I'm sure I'm not the only person thinking about whether or not Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) might end up together. I think this subject was raised recently by a long-term correspondent of mine and it's been rattling around in my brain since.
JNJ has definitely been busy of late - acquiring Micrus and publicly entering into a mating dance with vaccine biotech Crucell (Nasdaq: CRXL). Likewise, BSX has been active as well - buying Asthmatx and reportedly talking about selling its neurostim and neurovascular businesses.
So maybe it's time for these two long-time rivals to get together. It would probably cost less than $12B for JNJ ... certainly not an impossible deal to contemplate.
Why would JNJ do this? Well, it is pretty clear from the stagnant growth at JNJ that management needs to figure out some additional ways to grow and growth-through-acquisition is a tried-and-true (if qualitatively poor) way of growing. For BSX, it would be tantamount to a mercy killing for this long-underperforming company.
Beyond that, though, JNJ did once want to get into the CRM business (by buying Guidant) until BSX pushed the bidding up to a ridiculous level - a decision that has effectively crushed BSX ever since. Beyond that beyond, there are some other compelling reasons BSX could appeal to JNJ. It would potentially reinvigorate JNJ's drug-eluting stent business, even though both JNJ and BSX are losing the race against Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT). I hope I don't sound too cynical, though, when I suggest that combining two has-beens seldom leads to a new leader...
Stents aside, BSX does have some solid business units that would not only round out JNJ's offerings, but could represent fix-er-up turnaround opportunities (the BSX IVUS business, which has been all but ceded to Volcano (Nasdaq: VOLC) comes to mind).
I don't believe that JNJ would the only suitor for BSX, were it to become clear that BSX was amenable to a sale. Covidien (NYSE: COV) could be a consideration and maybe Stryker (NYSE: SYK) would see that as a way of achieving some major diversification (although I highly, *highly* doubt that one).
Likewise, BSX would not be the only large target that JNJ could consider. Bard (NYSE: BCR), Becton Dickinson (NYSE: BDX), and CareFusion (NYSE: CFN) could all make sense (though BDX is quite a bit larger), as well as any number of fast-growing (and expensive) smaller companies like Nuvasive (Nasdaq: NUVA) or Thoratec (Nasdaq: THOR). Hell, even ZOLL (Nasdaq: ZOLL) could make sense and JNJ's salesforce could do amazing things with the LifeVest product.
Then again, maybe JNJ buys up a few more biotechs or takes a run at a big pharmaceutical company like Genzyme (Nasdaq: GENZ) or Lilly (NYSE: LLY). But then again, here is the precise problem playing the "who might buy who" game - once you get started, it's kinda hard to stop!
All in all, the safest bet to make in M&A speculation is that nothing happens. I think a JNJ-BSX deal *could* happen, and it probably would not be the worst deal that JNJ has made. But I'm still going to bet on the side that says JNJ won't be buying BSX any time soon.
Disclosure - I own shares of JNJ
2 comments:
JNJ likes to buy smaller companies with potential that they can develop - for example, their stent business came from the purchase of Cordis Corp years ago. The offer for Guidant was one of the few big buys I remember them trying but they were smart enough not to get suckered into overpaying for it. Y, I agree they probably would not want to get into BSX as turn-arounds don't seem to be their style.
I think the catch there is "potential". Their history of actual development with buys like Closure is really poor, but your point is well-taken.
I think the Pfizer consumer buy was really the only massive deal they've done since Cordis (although Centocor was pretty big I think).
Post a Comment