I had my doubts earlier this year
as to whether the optimism over coal would last and it hasn't - the
major pure-play producers are all looking at double-digit declines in
their stocks. I did think that Cloud Peak Energy (NYSE:CLD)
was better-positioned than most and the shares have performed
relatively better - down about 12% versus a nearly 20% decline for Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU), a 30% decline for Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI), and a nearly 50% decline for Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR).
Is
this the right time to jump back into Cloud Peak? I continue to believe
that Cloud Peak has the best long-term cost structure of the U.S.-based
miners and that Powder River Basin coal (which is all that the company
mines) will be the "last man standing" even if utilities turn even more
toward gas and renewables for the long term. The upside here if thermal
coal prices recover is pretty attractive, not to mention the long-term
upside of Asian exports, but this is an idea where investors have to be
willing and able to wait a while for the value opportunity to develop.
Read more here:
Cloud Peak Energy Still Generating Cash In A Tough Market
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