Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Peabody Energy Still Waiting For Better Days

Discussions of relative performance always need to anchored with the question of "relative to what?". Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) has been one of the best-performing U.S. coal companies year-to-date and over the last year (edged out in both cases by Cloud Peak (NYSE:CLD), and handily beaten by quasi-coal company CONSOL Energy (NYSE:CNX)), but the coal sector has continued to get thumped on weak met coal pricing, long-term concerns about EPA regulations for thermal coal, and rail shipments from the Powder River Basin.

I continue to believe that Peabody Energy is the best-positioned U.S. coal company for the long term. This year may see the company go FCF-negative, but Peabody can generate positive free cash flow at coal prices well below the breakeven levels for Alpha Natural (NYSE:ANR) or Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI). I also like the company's asset base (Illinois and Powder River Basin in the U.S., Australian met coal). While Alpha Natural has more upside if met coal prices suddenly shoot up again, I think Peabody is the better risk-adjusted pick overall.

Continue here:
Peabody Energy Still Waiting For Better Days

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