Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Seeking Alpha: Tullow Oil Battered And Bruised, But Not Finished

Not only is Tullow Oil (OTCPK:TUWOY) the largest independent oil and gas company, it is one of the most exploration-focused large energy companies out there. The good side of this heavy exploration focus is that success can bring in millions of barrels of reserves at low cost, spiking the estimated NAV. The bad side is that dry holes can quickly whittle away the value of the exploration NAV and send the stock skidding.

The latter has been the dominant part of the story since I wrote about Tullow as a Top Idea in the summer of 2013. At that time, Tullow had been looking back on an average drilling success rate of more than 70% since 2007, well above industry averages for frontier drilling. In 2013, though, that success rate dropped into the 20%s, and investors had to come to terms with disappointments in French Guiana, Mozambique, and Mauritania, among other locales. While recognizing that Tullow is in a tricky spot between independent and major, explorer and producer, I continue to believe that Tullow shares are undervalued at this level and can benefit from further drilling activities in West Africa, East Africa, and offshore Norway.

Continue reading here:
Tullow Oil Battered And Bruised, But Not Finished

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