Thursday, March 31, 2022

Lundbeck Languishing Without Clear Drivers

Danish drug company H. Lundbeck A/S (OTCPK:HLUYY) ("Lundbeck") hasn't underperformed in terms of core operating earnings since my last update, but the company has seen unsatisfying results for its main growth drivers and the pipeline remains skewed to high-risk late-stage programs and unproven (and high-risk) early-stage compounds. On top of all that, the company is proposing "a heads we win, tails we still win" split share structure that favors its primary shareholder.

I'll discuss the share split later, as it really irritates me. Operationally, I don't see the story as having changed so much from my last update, and a lot is still riding on a normalization of marketing behaviors where the company can get its reps in front of doctors. While I can make the argument that these shares are undervalued, potentially significantly so, a lot is riding on the upcoming read-out of Rexulti in Alzheimer's-associated agitation, as there is little to drive the stock higher in the short term beyond that.

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Lundbeck Languishing Without Clear Drivers

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