Fanuc Still Strong In Robots And Automation, But Trouble May Lie Ahead

I’ve never been quite as fond of Japan’s Fanuc (OTCPK:FANUY) (6954.T) as many readers seem to be, and over the last five years you could have done better with other automation names like Yaskawa (OTCPK:YASKY), Rockwell (ROK), Keyence (OTCPK:KYCCF), or HollySys (HOLI) (though the two-year comps are more forgiving to Fanuc). While Fanuc has done better than I’d expected over the last two years in terms of revenue growth, leveraging a strong rebound in machine tool and robomachinery orders, margins and FCF generation haven’t been all that impressive as business has skewed to lower-margin products.

Now there are macro clouds on the horizon. Weaker smartphone capex demands seem likely to pressure results in 2018 and we may be nearing the point of peak machine tool orders, setting the stage for what could be a nasty decline over the next few years. I do expect Fanuc to continue to see strong growth in robots and robotic components, but I’m just not excited about the valuation today given those challenges and potential risks.

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Fanuc Still Strong In Robots And Automation, But Trouble May Lie Ahead