Expectations Are Low, But voestalpine Is Getting Squeezed On Costs And The Outlook Is Tricky

If you want more evidence of the challenges facing the steel industry, look no further than voestalpine’s (OTCPK:VLPNY) (VOES.VI) fiscal fourth-quarter results and new guidance from a few days ago. While voestalpine is more leveraged to specialized products and downstream operations than steel producers like ArcelorMittal (MT), the fact remains that steel companies are feeling the squeeze from weaker prices, iffy demand, and rising costs, and it doesn’t sound like those challenges are getting any easier.

With management calling for flat EBITDA in fiscal 2020 and pointing to growing signs of weakness in several key end-markets, it’ll take some time before investors start considering the possibility of better earnings in FY'21 and beyond. Likewise, while the valuation looks low now on both a relative and absolute basis, weakening end-user demand and ongoing cost pressures aren’t going to have investors too excited about buying in ahead of that recovery. I do believe that voestalpine has some long-term appeal here, but investors are going to have to have patience with this one.

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Expectations Are Low, But voestalpine Is Getting Squeezed On Costs And The Outlook Is Tricky