Sunday, June 2, 2019

Meaningful Progress At Columbus McKinnon Going Seemingly Unnoticed

Columbus McKinnon (CMCO) is a bit of a puzzler to me now. Despite racking up multiple quarterly EBITDA beats in a row and eight quarters of year-over-year gross margin improvement, the shares are about 15% lower than they were last time I wrote about this leading player in material handling, and that was closer to down 25% before a big post-earnings reaction. Granted, industrials haven't done so well over that same period, and there are valid concerns about slowing end-market demand, but I'm still surprised the improvements in the business aren't being better reflected in the share price.

More than a third of Columbus McKinnon's revenue comes from end-markets/sectors that I'm concerned about today, but the company is gaining share and management expects another four points or so of EBITDA margin improvement from fiscal Q4'19 levels. With increased R&D spending going towards automation-enabling product development and my expectation of low-to-mid single-digit long-term revenue growth, mid-single-digit FCF growth, and low-double-digit ROIC, I believe these shares offer meaningful upside even with the risk of a sharper near-term slowdown in the business.

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Meaningful Progress At Columbus McKinnon Going Seemingly Unnoticed

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