Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Seeking Alpha: Stronger First Quarter Sales Help Roche, But ASCO Probably Matters More

Swiss drug and diagnostics giant Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) is in a challenging position today. On one hand, this remains the preeminent global oncology franchise with three incredible strong mature drugs and a deep pipeline. Roche is also a strong player in several diagnostics markets and has arguably done more than any other drug company to advance the companion diagnostics concept. The other hand is the uncertainty around the cash flow streams - many investors are worried about the prospect of generic competition for those "Big Three" oncology drugs, as well as the risk that Bristol-Myers (NYSE:BMY), Merck (NYSE:MRK), and AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) might not only beat Roche to the punch, but preclude the company from being a market share leader in oncology.

For my part, I think the push-pull of the Street has these shares more or less fairly priced. I'm content to own the fairly-priced shares of a great company, and I think Roche is exactly that. What's more, I see more potential to the upside from pipeline successes than downside risk to failures and generic competition. That said, I will once again repeat a complaint I've made multiple times regarding Roche - I'd like to see a stronger pipeline and R&D effort outside of oncology.

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Stronger First Quarter Sales Help Roche, But ASCO Probably Matters More

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