Seeking Alpha: Alnylam's CC5 Data More Like A Long Foul Than A Home-Run Or Strikeout

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALNY) hasn't been shy about talking up its early-stage clinical work, nor the prospects for its deep pipeline of RNAi drug candidates. The good news is that enthusiastic investors have awarded the company with a market cap of over $11 billion even though the company is likely at least three years away from its first commercial launch (and even that is no sure thing). Management has also been willing to parlay that enthusiasm into equity capital raises that have filled the company's coffers with cash to fund its clinical development program.

But there is a downside to high expectations, and Alnylam seems to seeing some of that today in the wake of initial data on the company's ALN-CC5 drug for complement mediated disease. Alynylam's data were not bad, and in fact I believe would otherwise be seen as encouraging, but expectations have ratcheted up to a point where it seems as though the company has to hit a home run every time it comes to the plate.

I am changing nothing in response to the data on ALN-CC5. I had previously valued this drug at about $2 on the basis of a 15% chance of clinical success and I am not changing those numbers. Alexion (NASDAQ:ALXN) investors still have reason to be nervous, but Alnylam has a long way to go before it can be credibly said to be a real potential threat to Alexion's Soliris franchise.

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Alnylam's CC5 Data More Like A Long Foul Than A Home-Run Or Strikeout