Seeking Alpha: Separating The 'Coulds' And 'Woulds' At Genworth

It's been over a year since I wrote about Genworth (NYSE:GNW), and a lot has happened since. The roughly 50% drop tells you a lot of what you need to know about how things have gone, particularly as the "some reasons to worry" that I mentioned in regards to the company's reserve situation in long-term care exploded into a capital-destroying crisis. Along the way, management has lost a lot of the credibility that it once enjoyed and that's not a trivial detail for an insurance company.

There are a lot of options in front of Genworth that could at least theoretically improve the value. Restructuring the long-term care business could improve visibility and investor confidence, and there are some interesting options for the mortgage insurance businesses. All of that said, I'm worried that management believes it can just keep patching the holes as they appear and lacks the willingness to take a bigger swipe at restructuring the business for future profitability. Given that opinion, while I see meaningful potential value in a turned-around Genworth, I'm not inclined to take on the risk.

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Separating The 'Coulds' And 'Woulds' At Genworth