Monday, February 22, 2016

Seeking Alpha: Roche's Deep Pipeline And Strong R&D Platform Make For A Long-Term Winner

You're not going to often hear me say that earnings don't matter, but I don't believe that Roche's (OTCQX:RHHBY) reported financials are going to be the driving factor behind the share price performance in 2016 and 2017. I am expecting that investors will, instead, put more emphasis on the company's clinical trial performance, as data read-outs over the next two years will go a long way toward shaping the future of Perjeta, Gazyva, and atezolizumab.

My basic view of Roche remains that the company is well-placed to play a major role in the evolving field of immuno-oncology and that recent clinical successes in hemophilia, asthma, and multiple sclerosis give it a little more of a balanced mix. I'm looking for Roche to generate around 5% long-term revenue growth, largely on the back of oncology, with additional cash flow leverage pushing the FCF growth rate into the high single-digits. Discounted back, that supports a fair value just shy of $36 today.

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Roche's Deep Pipeline And Strong R&D Platform Make For A Long-Term Winner

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