Neurocrine Hit Hard As T-Force GOLD Turns To Lead

Long and sometimes painful experience has taught me that conservatism is a good way to go when modeling and investing in biotech, and Neurocrine Biosciences’ (NBIX) disappointing trial news Wednesday morning is just another reminder of why that is so. Although there were valid reasons to believe that the T-Force GOLD study would show that Ingrezza is an effective and safe treatment for pediatric Tourette’s syndrome, the drug had failed prior studies in Tourette’s and Neurocrine announced that this well-designed pivotal study has failed as well.

Neurocrine is likely looking at a prolonged stay in the Street’s doghouse, as the ongoing sales ramp of Ingrezza in tardive dyskinesia and AbbVie’s (ABBV) ramp of Orlissa in endometriosis (and later uterine fibroids) likely won’t erase the disappointment of this trial failure, particularly given a weak late-stage pipeline. For more patient investors, though, this is an opportunity to build or add to a position in a promising CNS-focused biotech that has solid revenue-generating assets in hand and an early-stage pipeline with some potential.

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Neurocrine Hit Hard As T-Force GOLD Turns To Lead