Watching Green Dot (GDOT)
from the cheap seats (ie, not as an actual shareholder) has been an
interesting experience, as the market has moved through a pretty
predictable cycle of excessive risk-blind optimism, near-blind panic,
and relief. While that all has been going on, the market for prepaid
debit cards has continued to develop and mature but still seems to be
largely unpenetrated. At the same time, Green Dot has been rolling a
range of services and distribution points that should give it a leg up
in maintaining its position as the market leader.
At this point, I
think Green Dot is in sight of fair value, but I'll be the first to
acknowledge that there is a bigger than average range of potential
outcomes here. I'm expecting Green Dot to generate mid-to-high single
digit revenue and free cash flow growth, but the opportunity is larger
than those numbers suggest and Green Dot could elbow out its
competition. I could also see this company appealing to a range of
companies in the payment foodchain, any one of which could use the fee
income and customer base that Green Dot can offer.
Read more here:
After The Panic And Rally, Green Dot Still Has Plenty To Prove
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