Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Seeking Alpha: If There's Any Life Left In Iron, Fortescue Ought To Do Well

Is the commodity supercycle dead, or just sleeping? That's more than just a rhetorical question when it comes to Australia's Fortescue Metals Group (OTCQX:FSUGY).

On one hand, it seems hard to believe that China will re-accelerate its infrastructure and capital spending programs to such a degree as to bring back the commodity glory days of just a few years ago, not to mention there's a lot more supply online now to deal with it. On the other hand, Chinese steel mills still source a lot of their iron ore needs from high-cost domestic mines that simply cannot compete with Brazilian and Australian imports.

In the case of Fortescue, I believe there are multiple factors that should drive a higher multiple. The company has passed the point of peak spending and peak debt, and yet offers an attractive simultaneous one-two punch of rising output and falling costs. Fortescue also has a rich pool of resources that should continue to add to reserves, not to mention a strong owned and operated infrastructure network. Although the shares have already nearly doubled from the midsummer lows, I believe Fortescue could climb another 40% and still be undervalued relative to its larger peers in iron ore mining.

Continue here to the full article:
If There's Any Life Left In Iron, Fortescue Ought To Do Well

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