In the year or so since I last looked at Exact Sciences (EXAS),
quite a bit has changed and most of it for the better. While top-line
data from the company's pivotal study of Cologuard didn't live up to the
most bullish hopes, I believe it was more than enough for approval and
commercial adoption. The company has also decided to keep its tests
in-house (meaning it doesn't have to share profits with testing
companies) and laid out a logical marketing strategy to target the most
probable high-volume users. Last and not least, the company should have a
Medicare coverage decision in hand not too long after approval and in
time for the commercial launch.
Even with all of these ostensibly
positive developments, the shares have lagged the market over the past
year (up about 12%). Some of this can be tied to excessive optimism and
some of the normal pessimism that tends to hit med-tech stocks as
commercialization looms larger on the horizon. Some can also be tied to
concerns about reimbursement and whether the Cologuard data was good
enough for real commercial uptake. I'm bullish on Exact Sciences at
these levels, though I expect a great deal of debate about the ultimate
level of reimbursement and market share for the company.
Follow this link for the full article:
The Inexact Art Of Valuing Exact Sciences's Opportunity
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