Sunday, June 24, 2018

Air Transport Group Executing, But Headwinds Continue To Weigh

In terms "controlling what it can control", I believe Air Transport Services Group's (ATSG) management team is doing a good job. Even so, there are worries about Amazon's (AMZN) future plans for its Prime Air operations, possible competitive losses to Atlas Air (AAWW), higher rates, and access to planes continuing to weigh on the shares, which have underperformed Atlas Air quite significantly since March of this year.

I expect Air Transport to expand its business relationship with Amazon over time, but there are no guarantees. Likewise, I believe the company's efforts to expand its ground-based service and conversion businesses will pay off, but not for several years. Although the overall air cargo and leasing environment remains healthy, escalating trade disputes could threaten that and Air Transport doesn't have a great track record of free cash flow or ROIC generation. That said, there still appears to be worthwhile opportunity here for those investors who can get comfortable with the risks.

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Air Transport Group Executing, But Headwinds Continue To Weigh

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