Valeo's Outperformance Relative To Underlying Volume May Be The Start Of The Turn

I can understand why sell-side analysts would see light at the end of the tunnel at Valeo (OTCPK:VLEEY) (FR.PA) and assume it’s an oncoming train. That’s what happens when you miss guidance for two and a half years, offer vague and unconvincing explanations of those misses, and generally make any bulls look foolish. And yet, the markets tend to have short memories if and when companies turn around their performances, so maybe, finally, my bullish thesis on Valeo doesn’t feel so foolish.

I’m not changing any of my core assumptions in any meaningful way, as there’s still a lot of “show me” to this story. Still, 5% revenue growth for a company with a strong hybrid/EV order book (if they can deliver…) and strong FCF growth (if they can deliver…) doesn’t seem out of line, and would support a meaningfully higher share price from here, even after a recent rally that has seen the stock outperform peers/rivals like BorgWarner (BWA), Continental (OTCPK:CTTAY), and Schaeffler (OTC:SFFLY).

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Valeo's Outperformance Relative To Underlying Volume May Be The Start Of The Turn